Doyle McManus
Not exactly. The tea party has changed the political landscape in ways that are likely to last for a while. But its least favorite candidate Mitt Romney just came up big in Iowa.
A year ago the tea party movement looked like an irresistible wave sweeping through the Republican Party. Anyone who hoped to win this years GOP presidential nomination it seemed would need to embrace tea party activists stringent demands for smaller government lower taxes and deep cuts in spending.
But in Tuesdays Iowa caucuses the three candidates who hewed closest to the tea party line Michele Bachmann Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich sank straight to the bottom of the pack. Instead of choosing a rigorous fiscal conservative such as Bachmann Perry or Gingrich Iowa Republicans divided most of their votes between Mitt Romney the tea partys least favorite candidate and Rick Santorum a social conservative who voted for big spending and defended congressional earmarks when he was in the Senate. Ron Paul at third place was the most successful of the tea party-friendly candidates but the acerbic libertarians claim to 22 of Tuesdays caucus votes could well turn out to be his high-water mark for the year.
In national polls too the tea partys allure has been fading. A study in November by the Pew Research Center found that 27 of the public said they disagreed with the tea party while only 20 said they agreed a striking reversal from a year earlier when 27 agreed. The polls authors said it appeared that voters increasingly blamed the tea party and its champions in Congress for the gridlock in negotiations over the federal budget.
So does this mean the tea party over? Not exactly.
The tea party has changed the political landscape in ways that are likely to last for a while. Every Republican candidate for example at least claims now to be a fiscal conservative. Even Romney whose greatest achievement as a governor was mandatory health insurance now says he supports a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution that would cap spending at 20 of gross domestic product a deep cut below the current 24. Santorum goes even further proposing a spending cap of 18.
And its not really the tea partys fault that its favorite candidates Bachmann and Perry stumbled. Bachmann who founded the Tea Party Caucus in the House never found a way to turn that into a qualification to be president. Perry whose resume was strong on paper proved so inept in televised debates that he couldnt remember which Cabinet agencies he wanted to abolish.
According to the entrance poll sponsored by news organizations about a third of those who voted in the GOP caucus pronounced themselves strong supporters of the tea party; of those 30 said they voted for Santorum 17 for Gingrich and 16 for Paul.
Romney tied with Perry for fourth place among strong tea party adherents. In fact it was Romneys first-place showing among non-tea partyers that made him the statewide winner by just eight votes.
That divide mirrors the fragmentation of the tea party itself. Its always included a mix of libertarians (Paul voters) social conservatives (Santorum voters) and older Reagan conservatives (many of whom were Gingrich voters).
Thats the biggest reason when real votes were being counted that Romney came out on top of the Republican field: His opponents split the remaining votes so many ways.
Its noteworthy too that although nearly half of the GOP caucus-goers labeled themselves very conservative only about a third were willing to call themselves strong supporters of the tea party.
As the campaign moves to New Hampshire and South Carolina that persistent division may be Romneys biggest advantage. In many states a majority of GOP voters still yearns for a candidate who isnt named Romney. But if they cant settle on a single alternative Romney is likely to win the nomination the same way he won (or at least squeaked by) in Iowa.
At this point Santorum appears to stand the best chance of uniting the not-Romney camp if only because of his strong showing in Iowa which will give him a significant bump. But the former Pennsylvania senator hasnt raised as much money as his rivals hasnt built an organization big enough to manage a multi-state campaign and perhaps most important hasnt weathered the level of national scrutiny that brought down Gingrich Bachmann and Perry.
And even before Iowa some conservative activists complained that Santorum wasnt ideologically reliable. As a senator they noted he supported dozens of earmarks and voted for the expensive Medicare prescription drug entitlement (a mortal sin in tea party eyes) in 2003. Rick Santorum was part of the problem in Washington wrote Erick Erickson author of the RedState blog. The voters in Pennsylvania rejected him in 2006 because of his and the Republicans profligate ways.
So in an election year that might have cemented tea party dominance of the GOP the top two candidates come from other wings of the party: Santorum a quintessential social conservative and Romney a quintessential establishment man.
And the most likely nominee is still the candidate many tea partyers like the least: Romney.
