By Dick Morris
Texas Insider Report: WASHINGTON D.C. If Obama loses by the landslide I have been predicting -- and he will --
his undoing started in June. Most disturbing for Obama is that his June swoon happened despite spending at least $50 million on paid advertising during May & June. He threw his best punch - an attack on Romneys record at Bain Capital - and got nothing for it.
At the end of 2011 Obamas approval ratings rarely rose above 45 and occasionally dropped as low as 40 in the daily tracking polls of both Gallup (registered voters) and Rasmussen (likely voters). But as 2012 dawned his approval gradually rose to 49-50 on the strength of a perception of economic recovery.
Monthly job creation solidly above 200000 and dropping first time unemployment claims fueled the heady sense that we were emerging from the Great Recession at last.
But as we noted in Take Back America and Revolt! debt implosion crises are often characterized by false dawns - periods where the data looks up and people come to believe the recovery is at last underway. But the optimism fades as does the recovery.
The only way out is to cut spending and borrowing so the worlds panic at the high levels of global indebtedness can be eased.
By April and May it became clear that there was no recovery underway as the monthly total of new jobs dipped first below 200000 and then below even 100000. Unemployment rose to 8.2 and the data from the first quarter indicated a growth rate of only 1.9 well below the 3 pace at which the GDP had been growing in the last quarter of 2011.
Voters didnt need the statistics to remind them that the economy was not in recovery. Foreclosures layoffs and long-term unemployment told the story in their own daily lives.
So in June Obamas job approval fell back to its 2011 levels of 45 or less. Romney opened up a lead in Gallups daily tracking of registered voters and his lead among Rasmussens sample of likely voters grew to 48-43.
Obamas verbal gaffes (the private sector is doing fine) and his ongoing battles with Congress which have led to the potential of a contempt citation helped spur his drop in the polls.
The Scott Walker victory in Wisconsin gave those who were watching with open minds a foretaste of the dimensions of the coming GOP landslide.
Now Obama faces a double hit: a Congressional contempt citation for his Attorney-General and the Supreme Court decision on Obamacare. And then will come Junes likely dismal jobs report which
will be released at the end of the week.
Even conventional observers are now noting the chances for a Republican victory.
Well see and hear more of that as the summer progresses.
