By Kathy Kiely and John Fritze USA TODAY
Cruising the struggling rural communities of eastern Arkansas Earnestine Weaver the local justice of the peace and longtime Democratic committeewoman senses a tide building in advance of Tuesdays primary.
People are saying: Lets make a change. Lets get rid of all the people in office now she says.
In state after state as campaigns ramp up for this years congressional elections voter anger threatens to capsize the careers of lawmakers previously considered untouchable. Party affiliation is not the issue.
Its a bad year to be an incumbent says Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell a Democrat.
Primary elections Tuesday in Pennsylvania Arkansas and Kentucky will provide the next test of the electorates sour mood. In those states veteran officeholders who have the backing of their party leaders are threatened by upstart candidates who barely registered in the polls a few months ago.
In Pennsylvania Sen. Arlen Specter embraced by President Obama after Specter switched parties in the face of a tough GOP primary may not survive his first Democratic one.
In Kentucky Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnells choice to replace retiring Sen. Jim Bunning may not survive a Republican primary challenge from Rand Paul the son of ex-presidential candidate Ron Paul.
And in Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln is threatened by a Democratic primary rival who says shes made too many compromises with conservatives on issues such as health care and labor rights.
Another common theme in Tuesdays contests: Candidates who have tried to position themselves to win a fall campaign by attracting independents find themselves in danger of rejection by Republican and Democratic primary voters. To activists on the right and left deal-making has become a dirty word.
You cant hardly tell the difference between a Republican and Democrat anymore complained Fred Friedmann who attended a Tea Party gathering in Louisville last week. Im looking for someone who gets away from the establishment.
MONEY: Incumbents attract late primary donors
TEA PARTY: Utah success sends warning
Could this be the year of a bipartisan political purge? The casualty list already is growing.
Utah Sen. Bob Bennett a 17-year Republican veteran couldnt persuade delegates of his own party this month to put him on the primary election ballot. Last week Democratic primary voters in West Virginia booted Rep. Alan Mollohan from a seat that had been held by his family for four decades. Mollohan succeeded his father in 1983.
Other senior lawmakers at the height of their political power such as Sen. Chris Dodd D-Conn. and Rep. Dave Obey D-Wis. have opted to retire in the face of re-election opposition.
Even Arizona Sen. John McCain the 2008 Republican presidential nominee faces a tough primary challenge. In Florida Republican conservatives pushed Gov. Charlie Crist out of his partys primary when he decided to run for Senate as an independent.
Right now its a very turbulent environment says Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor of Arkansas.
Politicians of both parties attribute voters vindictiveness to anxiety though they offer different explanations for it.
Its the deficit says Sen. Orrin Hatch R-Utah representing his partys view.
Democrats such as Sen. Robert Casey D-Pa. blame the high unemployment rate.
Whatever the reason there is a general frustration out there that can suddenly focus on an incumbent who finds himself or herself on the defensive for any reason says Morris Fiorina a political scientist at Stanford University. Times are tough the wars go on the rich get richer party control changes but nothing happens that most people can feel.
The result is a year in which all the usual rules seem to have been upended: Incumbency is an anvil not an asset; fundraising advantages mean little; and the endorsements of popular political figures seem to be backfire.
Thats the case Tuesday where three veteran officeholders with well-funded campaigns and powerful backers are in danger of losing to insurgent candidates:
In Pa. a test for Specter
During a nearly three-decade career in the Senate Specter has beaten cancer (twice) a brain tumor and countless political opponents. Recent polls however suggest hes in a battle he may lose.
Rep. Joe Sestak Specters challenger in the Democratic Senate primary lagged 20 percentage points when Terry Madonna polling director for Franklin & Marshall College surveyed Keystone State voters in early March.
When Madonna polled again this month he found the race dead even.
The shift represents less a Sestak surge than it does a Specter collapse says Madonna who believes the five-term Specter is at risk of falling victim to an anti-incumbent tsunami.
Its 90 about Arlen Madonna says.
Sestak doesnt dispute that assessment. The overarching issue is trust he says. The lack of trust in Washington.
In an anti-incumbent year there are few bigger targets than Specter the longest-serving senator in Pennsylvania history.
Elected in 1980 on the same ticket as Ronald Reagan Specter served most of his career as a Republican with a quirkily independent streak. He campaigned briefly for the presidency in 1996 as a pro-abortion-rights Republican and voted not proven on former president Bill Clintons impeachment citing Scottish law.
Last year Specter became a Democrat. That got him out of a GOP primary rematch with Pat Toomey a fiscal conservative and former congressman who came within 2 percentage points of beating Specter six years ago.
Specter says that wasnt a factor in his decision. He says he had a clear shot at re-election as a Republican had he stuck with the party line and opposed the economic stimulus plan.
Instead Specter says in an interview with USA TODAY I cast a principled vote for the presidents plan. I was concerned about sliding into a 1930s recession he says.
Specter doesnt deny the threat hes facing.
I think there is a tremendous objection to incumbents he says. What Im trying to remind people is that I have not been a part of this obstructionism and partisanship that people are fed up with.
President Obama Vice President Biden and Pennsylvania Gov. Ed Rendell all back Specter.
That doesnt impress Clarence Sprout a retired postal worker from Harrisburg.
Im sick and tired of the people in Washington says Sprout a self-described life-long Democrat. I really think this year Im going to vote for anybody who is new.
On the other hand Karen Primm of Smithton in western Pennsylvania a supporter of the presidents health care plan and gay marriage says Specters Republican past doesnt bother her.
Im not thrilled with this Democrat-Republican stuff she says. Most of us arent one or the other. Were all moderates somewhere in the middle.
Sestak a two-term Philadelphia congressman retired from the Navy as an admiral and once worked for former president Clinton. Yet he is running as a Washington outsider against what he portrays as an attempt by the national party apparatus to foist Specter on Pennsylvania Democrats.
My partys establishment got off track says Sestak accusing party leaders of making a backroom deal that smacked of the worst of politics to win Specters allegiance.
After Specter switched from the Republican to the Democratic party last April Sestak said the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee which had been trying to recruit him to run against the senator asked him to give up the race. He declined.
Conversations with Pennsylvania voters last summer convinced him that they were ready to reject the advice of politicians even politicians they like Sestak said. This years stunning upset victory by Republican Scott Brown in the Massachusetts special Senate election validated that theory.
This is about Washington he says. The message is A pox on both your houses.
Another test of the power of incumbency on the Pennsylvania ballot: A special election to fill the congressional seat held for 37 years by Democratic Rep. John Murtha. Democrat Mark Critz a former aide to Murtha is running on his former boss record. Local polls show Republican Tim Burns running as a political newcomer in a position to pull off an upset.
A shake-up in Kentucky?
The anti-establishment sentiment sweeping the country isnt limited to incumbents. Just ask Kentucky Republican Trey Grayson.
Grayson Kentuckys secretary of State appeared last year to be a shoo-in for the Senate seat being vacated by Bunning. Grayson picked up dozens of early endorsements from Republicans in the Bluegrass State and enjoyed a $500000 fundraising lead.
Former vice president Dick Cheney former Pennsylvania senator Rick Santorum and Kentuckys senior Republican McConnell all back Grayson.
But instead of boosting his credibility with voters Graysons Washington ties have become ammunition for his opponent Bowling Green eye surgeon Rand Paul.
Paul 47 has cast the race as a battle between the nations Tea Party movement and establishment Republicans and has tried to define Grayson as part of the Washington machine.
Something big is happening in America Paul told about 100 supporters eating fried chicken and steak at a Tea Party gathering last week in southern Louisville. We need new people in both parties in Washington if were ever going to fix it.
A poll for the Louisville Courier-Journal this month found Paul whose father has served 11 terms in the House with a 16 percentagepoint lead. Both Paul and Grayson have raised $2.7 million for the race but 77 of Pauls money has come from out-of-state donors compared with 18 for Grayson according to CQ MoneyLine.
Pauls message is resonating with plenty of Kentuckians including Louisville resident Don Knight. After listening to Paul speak at a meet-and-greet in Prospect Ky. Knight says Grayson is too cozy with entrenched lawmakers.
Everybody whos following this closely realizes that Trey Grayson is going to be the lapdog of Mitch McConnell Knight says and Mitch McConnell ought to be the next one out of office.
Grayson 38 acknowledges that widespread voter discontent is shaping the race in Kentucky and elsewhere but he bristles at the suggestion hes the insider candidate.
The Harvard-educated Kentucky native has never worked in Washington. On the campaign trail he has criticized his own party as well as Democrats and President Obama.
Even so Grayson makes no apologies for his support from established lawmakers. In an interview he argued that his alliances will enable him to achieve more results in Congress than Pauls throw spitballs war on Washington.
If youre stuck in traffic do you want the guy whos just going to honk the horn or the guy whos going to pass the tie-up and move forward Grayson asks in an interview. Rands approach wont be productive.
Whoever wins will have to switch gears for the November election which the non-partisan Cook Political Report calls a toss-up.
Polls show Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo in a dead heat with Attorney General Jack Conway for the Democratic nomination.
Its the fall election that Corbin Ky. accountant Ruth Howard will have in mind when she shows up at the polls Tuesday. After listening to Grayson speak outside City Hall Howard says she believes Grayson is simply more electable.
Treys a little bit more mainstream. … Rands just a little bit more extreme she says. And its very important that we keep this seat.
Ark. senator under fire
After 17 years in Congress six in the House and 11 in the Senate Democrat Lincoln seemed to have everything necessary to keep an incumbent entrenched.
Shes climbing the rungs in the tax-writing Senate Finance Committee and last year she became chair of the Senate Agriculture Committee the first woman and the first Arkansan ever to hold the post.
At the edge of an eastern Arkansas community garden where sweet potato and peas were beginning to sprout on a recent weekend the senator displayed six poster-size checks for $400000 symbolizing grant money she had snagged for local conservancy groups and agricultural entrepreneurs.
Im proud to be able to be in a place where I can be helpful to Arkansas Lincoln says.
At home however shes facing a mutiny. Lt. Gov. Bill Halter got into the race March 1 against Lincoln who has the backing of Obama and former president Clinton still enormously popular in his home state.
Even so a poll last week showed Halter pulling to within 10 percentage points of Lincoln. And although Lincolns campaign war chest amassed over years far surpasses Halters the challenger managed to raise twice as much money as the senator during April.
A third candidate in the race D.C. Morrison trails far behind in the polls but could be a factor: If neither Lincoln nor Halter gets more than 51 of the vote they will face each other in a June 22 runoff.
The momentum is with us Halter says in an interview.
On a recent trip back to her old congressional district in the Arkansas Delta Lincoln didnt disguise her sense of urgency. I need you now more than ever she told a group of about 25 community leaders gathered for ham and biscuits in ForrestCity. Its a crazy election year out there.
Even Lincoln loyalists agree shes facing a tough environment. Our little community has been through a tough time says Larry Nash mayor of the nearby town of Wheatley. Everybody wants change.
In Halters view the race boils down to a question of whos going to fight for the middle class vs. whos going to stand by special interests?
He hammers Lincoln for her refusal to support card check shorthand for legislation that would make it easier for unions to organize workers and her role in the health care debate. Lincoln voted for the bill in the end but refused to back the so-called public option including a choice of a government-backed insurance plan among a range of options favored by some Democrats.
Halters campaign has the support of some national liberal groups such as MoveOn.org and Democracy for America as well as the AFL-CIO.
Supporters tout Halters efforts to establish a state lottery in Arkansas with proceeds providing $5000-a-year scholarships to Arkansas high school graduates who attend state colleges.
Bills with regular people in Arkansas day in and day out says Tom Keating a Democratic committeeman and member of the Teamsters union. Blanche is in Washington.
Lincolns supporters believe her recent work as an author of the financial reform legislation moving through Congress particularly a provision designed to push big investment banks out of the derivatives business will help polish the senators populist credentials.
Yet Gary Phillips chairman of the Democratic Party in Mississippi County worries that Halter supporters will not vote for our candidate if theirs does not prevail damaging Democratic chances in the fall.
We have our own Tea Party going on in the Democratic Party Phillips says. Its going to be a bruising battle.
