From The Rothenberg Political Report
Texas Insider Report: Washington D.C. Latinos are growing into a powerful voting bloc but there is the real possibility that the U.S. Senate wont have any additional Hispanics next year.
The lack of new senators isnt because of a wide-spread bias against Latino candidates but an exercise in political reality.
Last year a handful of Latinos had an opportunity to get elected and join Floridas Marco Rubio and New Jerseys Bob Menendez as the only Hispanics in the chamber. But as the election trudges on none of them have particularly bright prospects.
Theyre either running in competitive primaries against better-funded better-known and more-established candidates or running against the partisan grain of their particular state.
Latinos have the best chance to win in the Southwest but the candidates there still have very difficult races.
In Arizona national Democratic strategists prefer former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona even though he faces a former state party chairman in the primary. Carmona served under President George W. Bush so Democrats believe hell be able to appeal to enough Republicans in order to win in a Republican-leaning state.
In the general election Carmona starts behind in the polls and money against Rep. Jeff Flake since the Democrat has never run for office before. Its not an impossible race for Carmona to win but the Latino is the underdog.
In New Mexico state Auditor Hector Balderas (D) raised more than three-quarters of a million dollars last year for his campaign but he still trails his Democratic opponent Albuquerque-area Rep. Martin Heinrich in money and in the polls. Heinrich raised almost $2 million last year and released a poll showing him ahead of Balderas 52 percent to 22 percent.
Even though Balderas is well-liked and considered to be a rising star in New Mexico politics Democratic strategists inWashington D.C. prefer Heinrich to be their partys nominee. But if Balderas can pull off the upset in the primary he
would start the general election well-positioned to win.
Other Latino candidates either have a more difficult road ahead or dropped out altogether.
Last month Lt. Gov. John Sanchez (R) announced he was ending his Senate bid in New Mexico essentially ceding the GOP nomination to former Rep. Heather Wilson.
Throughout the course of this campaign it has become clear to me that in order to ensure that a Republican is elected to representNew Mexicoin the U.S. Senate the G.O.P must stand united" Sanchez said in a statement. The reality is that the path forward to success in the campaign could cause a negative primary struggle that would leave the eventual nominee bruised bloody and broke."
Sanchez was trying to run as the conservative alternative to Wilson who has a more moderate reputation but the lieutenant governor failed to keep up with the former congresswomans fundraising and struggled to draw a bright enough
ideological line. Sanchez had one tenth of the cash available for his campaign compared toWilsonat the end of the year.
In Texas Republican Ted Cruz is beloved by national conservative groups such as the Club for Growth and FreedomWorks. But the former state solicitor general is locked in a very competitive Republican primary.
Not only is Cruz the underdog to wealthy Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst but Cruz is in danger of finishing third in the initial primary behind the former Dallas mayor
Tom Leppert and missing the run-off altogether. Cruz has raised over $3 million but its nowhere near enough to raise his profile with campaign ads in such a large state with multiple expensive media markets.
Also in Texas Democrats were initially excited about their chosen candidate: retired Army Lieutenant General Ricardo Sanchez. But he also struggled to raise money and dropped out of the race before the filing deadline. Even if he had been
the Democratic nominee his chances would have been slim. Democrats havent won a Senate race inTexas in almost 25 years.
Like this election the future success of Latino candidates is partially contingent on factors outside of their control such as the partisanship of their state or who their opponents might be. But Latinos can help themselves by raising more money to more effectively introduce themselves to their electorates.
