The Rothenberg Political Report
Tuesdays results were an uncomfortable reminder to strategists in both parties that this is a strange election cycle. While the surprises were on
the Republican side they confirm a level of dissatisfaction at least on the political right with politics as usual and established politicians.
Certainly many current and former officeholders won nomination including Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL) Rep. Allen Boyd (D-FL) former state Sen. Dan Webster (R-FL 8) and state Rep. Sandy Adams (R-FL 24).
But Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski (AK) is relegated to hoping that absentee ballots yet to be counted somehow give her a win former state Sen. Jonathan Paton (AZ 8) was upset by a conservative insurgent in the GOP primary and Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum is licking his wounds after yet another electoral defeat this time for the GOP nominee for governor.
And in Arizonas 3rd C.D. three former state legislators and a sitting mayor were defeated by Ben Quayle a 33 year old lawyer and businessman whose only claim to fame seem to be his last name and an attention getting by running a TV commercial calling Barack Obama the worst President in history" and saying that Somebody has to go to Washington and knock the hell out of the place."
In Florida businessman Rick Scott will have to spend some time wooing backers of McCollum (and certainly McCollum himself) after a nasty primary. Luckily for him Florida leans Republican even in a neutral year this midterm cycle strongly favors Republicans and Democrat Alex Sink isnt an ideal candidate.
Democratic attacks on Scott surely will echo McCollums attack in the primary and Scott is certain to use the same kind of time for a change" and dont trust the politicians rhetoric against Sink that he did in his primary.
The Democratic Governors Association quickly pointed to a pre-primary (August 21-22) PPP poll showing Sink ahead of Scott by seven points a meaningless survey for anyone who really wants to know what will happen in the fall.
PPP a Democratic firm found Sink had stronger support among Democrats than Scott did among Republicans. Wow theres a shocker. Scott just spent the last few months in a toe-to-toe fight for the nomination against his partys political establishment while Sink coasted to the nomination without anyone laying a glove on her. No wonder Scotts negatives are high and Sinks favorable-to-unfavorable numbers are better than Scotts. Youd expect that after one party had a nasty primary and the other didnt.
But all of that is likely to change after a few weeks or at least before the end of October. Given the states bent and the candidates qualities and initial positioning the Florida gubernatorial general election contest starts as a toss-up.
In Floridas Senate race Democrat Kendrick Meeks team has already sent out a campaign memo arguing that Meek has momentum Gov. Charlie Crist (R) running as an Independent cannot win and ultimately voters face a Rubio-Meek choice.
Meekss solid primary win over Jeff Greene notwithstanding Meeks case seems incredibly weak. Rubio drew more votes than were cast for all candidates in the Democratic primary and the Democratic congressman is so widely dismissed as a serious contender for November that the day after the primary his campaign felt it necessary to make a case that he isnt irrelevant.
Meeks primary win does as many have already pointed out create a problem for national Democratic strategists. Do they invest in a ridiculously long-shot candidacy because Meek won the primary and is the partys lone credible African American Senate hopeful thereby diverting their resources from better opportunities?
However they answer that question Meeks primary win certainly improves Rubios prospects.
In Alaska Republican Joe Miller looks to have ridden an anti-Washington anti-establishment mood in one of the quirkier political states of the union. If Democrats had known Murkowski could lose they might have dredged up a more credible candidate than Scott McAdams the mayor of Sitka. McAdams had raised less than $10000 for the race through June 30 and his website suggests that he isnt close to ready for prime time.
If Miller comes to Washington hell likely line up with those Republicans who think compromise is a dirty word.
In Arizona Sen. John McCains solid win over challenger J.D. Hayworth means Republicans dont need to worry about that Senate seat. But some GOPers are already wondering how much Jesse Kellys win over Jonathan Paton in Arizonas 8th C.D. Republican primary damages the partys prospects against Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords.
