Net Rs Gain Raised to 55 Seats 47 Seats Probable Floor

By Larry Sabato Texas Insider Report: WASHINTON D.C Before Labor Day we issued a projection of 47 House seats net gains for the Republicans. We based this both on a district-by-district analysis and also a careful review of the underlying election variables from the generic ballot to presidential job approval to likely statewide coattail. Weve been studying these states districts & candidates for many years and our tradition is to make a prediction in every contest. We feel entitled!     The Crystal Ball also projects that Republicans will gain 500 new state legislative berths and will probably capture at least a dozen additional state legislative chambers. All of this has considerable implications for the redistricting process in 2011. Were proud of our record over the years but inevitably we will be wrong with some calls. Apologies for those in advance. The HOUSE The Crystal Ball was the first nonpartisan ratings service to call the House for the Republicans this year. Before Labor Day we issued a projection of 47 net gains for the Republicans. We believe 47 was the right call though at the time the number was considered startling to most. The likely switch of the House to the GOP was fiercely disputed by Democrats at that time. Many other nonpartisan prognosticators had estimated Republican gains as being below the 39 net required for a GOP takeover. Even at this late date we see no need to do anything but tweak the total R gains based on more complete information now available to all. Thus we are raising the total to 55 net R seats. We consider 47 to be in the ballpark still but more of a floor than a ceiling. In fact if youll go back to our pre-Labor Day analysis thats exactly what we suggested 47 would end up being. The new total matches our district-by-district chart:

The SENATE The Crystal Ball has operated within a very narrow range all year. When others were projecting GOP Senate gains of just 3-4 we were already at 6. Depending on the primary results and other circumstances weve landed between 6 and 9 in the last half-year. We have never gotten to 10 the number needed for Republican takeover of the Senate and we do not do so in this final forecast either. To us the number of GOP gains looks to be 8. Ten was always a stretch. We believe the GOP will hold all its open seats (FL KY MO NH OH). This is quite an accomplishment in itself since the early assumption was that at least a couple would switch sides. In addition Republicans will probably pick up most of the following: AR CO IL IN NV ND PA and WI. The closest appear to be CO IL NV and PA. These races especially the first three are so tight that a strong breeze could change the result so the GOP may well come up one or two short in this category. By the way if Republicans do win the 8 we have projected then they only have to unexpectedly pick off two of the following states to take control: CA CT WA or WV. CT seems least likely WA most likelybut any of the foursome would be an upset. In our pre-Labor Day analysis however we noted a historical anomaly: Since World War II the House has changed parties six times and in every case the Senate switched too. In five of the six cases most prognosticators did not see the Senate turnover coming. (Only in 2006 did some guess correctly including the Crystal Ball.) So if we have a big surprise on election night this could be it despite the pre-election odds against it.

  The GOVERNORS The Crystal Ball was the first to project a likely GOP pick-up of 8 statehouses. While a few gubernatorial contests have teetered back and forth we havent wavered far from that number settling at 8-9 Republican gains while recognizing that the final tally could vary by one in either direction. The Republicans are likely to pick up 14 governorships:

1. FL
2. IL
3. IA
4. KS
5. ME
6. MI
7. NM
8. OH
9. OK
10. OR
11. PA
12. TN
13. WI and
14. WY

The Democrats appear to be gaining 5 statehouses:

1. CA
2. CT
3. HI
4. MN and
5. VT

The closest of these are CA CT IL MN OR and VT. In each case we have had highly reliable well-placed sources insist that our frontrunner could end up on the short end come Tuesday. So again we will keep an eagle eye on these states over the weekend for a possible Monday update.

 

Students sometimes ask how I ever got into this game. I first published a state-by-state set of predictions in 1978. To my surprise the exercise turned out well. In 1980 I won a DC-based election pool and with that cash incentive I was hooked. (No I havent bet on elections in decades and professional prognosticators shouldnt.) We operate on the proverbial shoestring & were outside the Beltway (a plus & a minus).