By Emily Cadei CQ-Roll Call
With just 15 days before voters go to the polls there are more questions than answers in the race for New Jerseys governor prompting a ratings change from CQ Politics.
Can Republican Chris Christie survive millions more dollars in negative advertising run against him? Can a visit from President Obama help turn-out Democratic voters for incumbent Jon Corzine ? Will independent Chris Daggett earn a double-digit vote share on election day or will his support fade away?
With recent polls showing the race tightening to a virtual tie those factors will be crucial as voters decide whether Corzine wins a second term.
To reflect increasingly uncertain outcome CQ is shifting its race rating to Tossup from Leans Republican.
The New Jersey governors race is going down to the wire" predicted the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute in an analysis of its poll results released last week.
Quinnipiac found Christie with a statistically insignificant 41 to 40 percent lead over Corzine among likely voters. Daggett came in at 14 percent with 5 percent unsure.
The Quinnipiac poll mirrors other recent polls showing the race deadlocked but with numerous voters open to changing their minds. But except for a New York Times poll released Thursday night Christie has clung on to a slim lead.
The Republican was comfortably ahead of Corzine throughout most of the spring and summer. That however was before the incumbent unleashed a multi-million dollar barrage of television ads going after Christie. Corzine has outspent his GOP challenger three-to-one according to 29-day pre-election report filed by the campaigns.
Corzine a wealthy investment banker before entering politics is prepared to dip into his own pockets to spend however much is needed to win aides say. He launched three separate television ads just last week.
Christie told reporters last week that I should be dead by now" given Corzines spending but here I am still with a lead and I feel better now than I have felt this entire race." He continues to hammer Corzine on taxation a major concern to New Jersey voters who face some of the highest taxes in the country making stops in states Overtaxed Communities Hardest Hit by Corzine Taxes" each day during the final stretch of the race.
But the airtime offensive is having an effect Christies negatives have risen steeply and he now joins Corzine in holding higher unfavorable-to-favorable ratings. And despite voters unrest over the economy and taxes the Corzine campaign has succeeded in raising enough questions about Christie to close the polling gap in the last month. Most potent have been their ability to paint Christie as more conservative than the mainstream in the Democrat-leaning state or as the Corzine camp phrases it he does not share New Jerseys values" and questioning the substance of his policy proposals. The New York Times and Philadelphia Inquirer cited Christies lack of concrete proposals as one of their reasons for endorsing Corzine on Sunday.
Christies talk is far too vague" the New York Times wrote in its editorial and he has no record to back it up."
The Philalphia Inquirer wrote that the Republican gave the public astonishingly few reasons to vote for him and not just against Corzine."
Wild Card
Complicating the match-up between Christie and Corzine is Daggett.
With a well-received performance in the first debate and an endorsement from the Newark Star Ledger in the books his vote share has risen from single digits in September to the teens in the last few weeks. That hurts the Republican 40 percent of likely Daggett voters say Christie would be their second choice compared to 33 percent who say Corzine is.
Republicans are convinced that Corzine will be held to less than 45 percent of the vote share and that his only path to victory is if Daggett shaves off enough votes from Christie to keep the Republican in the low 40s or below.
To push back the Republican Governors Association last week launched a radio and television ad campaign comparing Daggett to Corzine but worse."
The message theyre trying to drive home: A vote for Daggett is a vote for Corzine.
Pollsters however wonder whether Daggetts support will hold through the Nov. 3.
Third-party candidates typically lose support in the final weeks of a campaign" polling firm Rasmussen Reports observed in an analysis of its latest New Jersey results. Thats because some of their supporters eventually decide to vote for the lesser of two evils among the major party candidates."
That is precisely how New Jersey voters view Corzine and Christie.
The New York Times poll found that less than half of likely voters backing one of the major party candidates strongly favored them. More than a third had reservations about their candidate. And 22 percent of Corzine backers and 31 percent of Christie backers said they were supporting the candidate simply because they disliked their other options.
Ross K. Baker a political science professor at Rutgers University in New Brunswick N.J. said New Jersey voters have good reason to be disatisfied with their choices. As governor Corzine has promised much more than he has delivered" while Christie has run the most platitudinous campaign by a challenger in recent years."
The one person whos come up with something is Chris Daggett" Baker said pointing to his tax overhaul proposal.
But the majority of voters still dont know enough about Daggett to form an opinion of him and because people dont think he can win many ultimately wont vote for him Baker said.
When it comes down to eleciton day Quinnipiac University Polling Institute Director Maurice Carroll said despite his first-term struggles Corzine has history on his side." Only two New Jersey governors have failed to win a second term since 1947 he noted.
The states tendency to re-elect incumbents along with the Democrats registration advantage in the state and his unlimited funds give Corzine the edge Baker agreed.
But Republicans believe they have an advantage in the intensity of their supporters who have a rare chance to put a member of the GOP in the governors mansion.
Polls confirm that many voters who turned out to vote for President Barack Obama in 2008 are planning in sitting on the sidelines this election. To counter that Democrats are turning to organized labor and the state party for their ground operation. And to pump up enthusiasm among Democratic-leaning voters they are carting in a triumvirate of the partys leading lights this week starting with Vice President Joseph R. Biden on Monday former President Bill Clinton on Tuesday and President Obama on Wednesday.
The campaign is hoping Obamas appearance in particular can help with their final outreach efforts to minority voters who turned out in 2008 but may not be inclined to go to the polls in November.
