The decision of Connecticut Sen. Christoper J. Dodd to retire in the face of an increasingly bleak re-election outlook shifted attention to two other Democratic senators fighting for their political lives in 2010 Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada and Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas.
Dodds departure announced Jan. 6 has brightened Democrats prospects for holding his Senate seat marking Reid and Lincoln the only other incumbent Democrats with disapproval or unfavorable ratings that have topped 50 percent as the most vulnerable senators now seeking re-election in their party.
Given these developments the fact that both senators start the year trailing in general election match-ups in the most recent polls and the deepening political crisis facing Democrats CQ-Roll Call is changing the race ratings to Tossup from Leans Democrat the most competitive ranking in the system.
Reid and Lincoln face abysmal approval ratings in their home states due to their decision to embrace an out-of-control spending agenda in Washington including the Democrats massive health care bill and failed stimulus debacle" said National Republican Senatorial Committee spokeswoman Amber Wilkerson Marchand. Were confident that these will be two of the most competitive pick-up opportunities for Republicans in November."
Democrats however say Reid and Lincolns vulnerability is less dire than might first appear. They point to the fact that Republicans in both Nevada and Arkansas have yet to fight out crowded primary contests that have the potential to turn bloody. And both senators have sizable war chests going into the election year.
In both these states Republicans face ugly convoluted primaries that will drain resources" Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Eric Schultz noted.
Such developments would no doubt aid the incumbents and CQ-Roll Call may well adjust its ratings depending on how divisive the primaries become. However the states primary dates Arkansas in May and Nevadas in June also give the GOP plenty of time to regroup before Election Day in November.
As for their finances while both candidates have built up big fundraising advantages and are unlikely to be outspent their money may only get them so far given the political environment.
Reid began airing a barrage of statewide television ads in November yet they failed to move the polling needle according to a December Las Vegas Review-Journal poll of registered voters conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research. And a new Review-Journal poll released Jan. 9 showed Reid reaching a new low in popularity with 52 percent of registered voters viewing him unfavorably and just 33 percent holding a favorable view of their senior senator.
Reid also continues to trail Republicans Sue Lowden a former state senator and former chairwoman of the state Republican party; Danny Tarkanian real estate developer and son of college basketball coaching legend Jerry Tarkanian; and former state state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle three relatively unknown candidates. Seven other Republicans are also vying for the nomination though none are top-tier recruits.
A December Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters reported similar results. Fifty-seven percent of Rasmussen respondents viewed Reid somewhat or very unfavorably.
Reid aides continue to maintain that internal polling contradicts these findings. Our internal polling shows us beating all our potential opponents" spokesman Jon Summers said via e-mail. However the Reid campaign has not released any numbers to back up this assertion prompting the NRSC put out a statement Jan. 7 demanding Reid release his phantom polling numbers."
Reid hasnt helped himself with his penchant for putting his foot in his mouth. During the December debates over health care he compared the opponents of the Democrats bill to supporters of slavery and just this past week created a firestorm with racially insensitive comments made in 2008 but just published in a new book about the election concerning President Obama whom he noted was a light skinned" black man who spoke without a Negro dialect." Reid promplty apologized and Obama readily accepted but Republicans continue to make hay about the comments.
Reids struggles stem in large part from his partisan role as majority leader as well as a general lack of likability. Lincolns biggest hurdle in contrast is less about her personal qualities and more about the conservative nature of her state. Obama won Nevada 55 percent to 43 percent in the 2008 presidential race thanks in part to a massive turn-out operation. But he lost in Arkansas to Sen. John McCain R-Ariz. 59 percent to 39 percent.
Just 35 percent of likely Arkansas voters favored Democrats health care overhaul in the latest Rasmussen poll compared with 65 percent who opposed it 51 percent strongly.
And Lincoln has found herself squarely in the middle of the health care battle ultimately casting a yes" vote for the Senate bill after much hemming and hawing. Lincoln has also taken a bruising from state and national Republicans over her position on the proposed Employee Free Choice Act or card check" legislation.
The Democratic leadership threw her a line this fall by tapping her for the chairmanship of the Senate Agriculture Committee a key post in her farming-heavy state yet Lincoln has watched her poll numbers continue to plummet.
One Democratic polling firm which had shown Lincoln with high single-digit to double-digit leads over her top GOP challengers in the spring showed her slightly trailing most of her potential Republican opponents by the early fall. A Rasmussen poll that was in the field in early January showed Lincoln trailing three of her opponents by double digits.
State Sen. Gilbert Baker a former state GOP chairman is widely regarded as the early front-runner in a Republican primary that also includes state Senate Minority Leader Kim Hendren food-safety services company CEO Curtis Coleman state Sen. Jim Holt and at least three others.
And while Lincoln faces the challenge of fending off attacks from the GOP she also has to worry about defending her left flank. Lt. Gov. Bill Halter is at least considering the possibility of taking Lincoln on in the primary.
Both Reid and Lincoln are veteran campaigners having won hard-fought elections in the past and their savviness and incumbency give them even odds to defend their seats despite all the political currents running against them.
Said the DSCCs Schultz: Sens. Reid and Lincoln . . . have built up strong records of delivering for their states and are fierce formidable forces politically."
The decision of Connecticut Sen. Christoper J. Dodd to retire in the face of an increasingly bleak re-election outlook shifted attention to two other Democratic senators fighting for their political lives in 2010 Majority Leader Harry Reid of Nevada and Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas.
Dodds departure announced Jan. 6 has brightened Democrats prospects for holding his Senate seat marking Reid and Lincoln the only other incumbent Democrats with disapproval or unfavorable ratings that have topped 50 percent as the most vulnerable senators now seeking re-election in their party.
Given these developments the fact that both senators start the year trailing in general election match-ups in the most recent polls and the deepening political crisis facing Democrats CQ-Roll Call is changing the race ratings to Tossup from Leans Democrat the most competitive ranking in the system.
Reid and Lincoln face abysmal approval ratings in their home states due to their decision to embrace an out-of-control spending agenda in Washington including the Democrats massive health care bill and failed stimulus debacle" said National Republican Senatorial Committee spokeswoman Amber Wilkerson Marchand. Were confident that these will be two of the most competitive pick-up opportunities for Republicans in November."
Democrats however say Reid and Lincolns vulnerability is less dire than might first appear. They point to the fact that Republicans in both Nevada and Arkansas have yet to fight out crowded primary contests that have the potential to turn bloody. And both senators have sizable war chests going into the election year.
In both these states Republicans face ugly convoluted primaries that will drain resources" Democrat Senatorial Campaign Committee spokesman Eric Schultz noted.
Such developments would no doubt aid the incumbents and CQ-Roll Call may well adjust its ratings depending on how divisive the primaries become. However the states primary dates Arkansas in May and Nevadas in June also give the GOP plenty of time to regroup before Election Day in November.
As for their finances while both candidates have built up big fundraising advantages and are unlikely to be outspent their money may only get them so far given the political environment.
Reid began airing a barrage of statewide television ads in November yet they failed to move the polling needle according to a December Las Vegas Review-Journal poll of registered voters conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Research. And a new Review-Journal poll released Jan. 9 showed Reid reaching a new low in popularity with 52 percent of registered voters viewing him unfavorably and just 33 percent holding a favorable view of their senior senator.
Reid also continues to trail Republicans Sue Lowden a former state senator and former chairwoman of the state Republican party; Danny Tarkanian real estate developer and son of college basketball coaching legend Jerry Tarkanian; and former state state Assemblywoman Sharron Angle three relatively unknown candidates. Seven other Republicans are also vying for the nomination though none are top-tier recruits.
A December Rasmussen Reports poll of likely voters reported similar results. Fifty-seven percent of Rasmussen respondents viewed Reid somewhat or very unfavorably.
Reid aides continue to maintain that internal polling contradicts these findings. Our internal polling shows us beating all our potential opponents" spokesman Jon Summers said via e-mail. However the Reid campaign has not released any numbers to back up this assertion prompting the NRSC put out a statement Jan. 7 demanding Reid release his phantom polling numbers."
Reid hasnt helped himself with his penchant for putting his foot in his mouth. During the December debates over health care he compared the opponents of the Democrats bill to supporters of slavery and just this past week created a firestorm with racially insensitive comments made in 2008 but just published in a new book about the election concerning President Obama whom he noted was a light skinned" black man who spoke without a Negro dialect." Reid promplty apologized and Obama readily accepted but Republicans continue to make hay about the comments.
Reids struggles stem in large part from his partisan role as majority leader as well as a general lack of likability. Lincolns biggest hurdle in contrast is less about her personal qualities and more about the conservative nature of her state. Obama won Nevada 55 percent to 43 percent in the 2008 presidential race thanks in part to a massive turn-out operation. But he lost in Arkansas to Sen. John McCain R-Ariz. 59 percent to 39 percent.
Just 35 percent of likely Arkansas voters favored Democrats health care overhaul in the latest Rasmussen poll compared with 65 percent who opposed it 51 percent strongly.
And Lincoln has found herself squarely in the middle of the health care battle ultimately casting a yes" vote for the Senate bill after much hemming and hawing. Lincoln has also taken a bruising from state and national Republicans over her position on the proposed Employee Free Choice Act or card check" legislation.
The Democratic leadership threw her a line this fall by tapping her for the chairmanship of the Senate Agriculture Committee a key post in her farming-heavy state yet Lincoln has watched her poll numbers continue to plummet.
One Democratic polling firm which had shown Lincoln with high single-digit to double-digit leads over her top GOP challengers in the spring showed her slightly trailing most of her potential Republican opponents by the early fall. A Rasmussen poll that was in the field in early January showed Lincoln trailing three of her opponents by double digits.
State Sen. Gilbert Baker a former state GOP chairman is widely regarded as the early front-runner in a Republican primary that also includes state Senate Minority Leader Kim Hendren food-safety services company CEO Curtis Coleman state Sen. Jim Holt and at least three others.
And while Lincoln faces the challenge of fending off attacks from the GOP she also has to worry about defending her left flank. Lt. Gov. Bill Halter is at least considering the possibility of taking Lincoln on in the primary.
Both Reid and Lincoln are veteran campaigners having won hard-fought elections in the past and their savviness and incumbency give them even odds to defend their seats despite all the political currents running against them.
Said the DSCCs Schultz: Sens. Reid and Lincoln . . . have built up strong records of delivering for their states and are fierce formidable forces politically."
