The GOP lacks a standard-bearer for 2012but the list of contenders will be growing in the fall.
Texas Governor Rick Perrys impressive primary victory over Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison is a signal. After the midterm election this November the field of candidates for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012 (or later) is going to get bigger and possibly better.
The list is long: Mitch Daniels John Kasich Meg Whitman Bobby Jindal Haley Barbour Sarah Palin Newt Gingrich Tim Pawlenty and Jim DeMint. And Perry.
To qualify as a serious national candidate Perry must defeat Democrat Bill Whiteand not in a squeakerthis fall for a third term as governor of the nations second most populous state. But his primary win last week was enough to prompt preliminary chatter about a presidential bid in 2012.
He has repeatedly and emphatically insisted he has no interest in any job outside Texas and I take him at his word. But his situation may soon change. How? A groundswell of support for a Perry presidential candidacy that included a few prominent Republicans could cause him to reconsider. And it should.
A Perry-for-President bandwagon is all but inevitable assuming he trounces White. The case for him is pretty simple: Perry is perhaps the most successful governor in the country. Texas has been a job creation machine on his watch. Even in the current recession Texas has suffered far less than most states. And by the way Perry has a tough tested crew of political advisers who will come in handy if he runs.
Despite four years of steep decline (2005 to 2009) the Republican party doesnt require a total makeover but it sure could use some fresh talent preferably with respectable track records at the national level. The easiest way for a Republican to escape the shadows and attract media attention is by seeking the presidency.
Several of the candidates left over from 2008 may run again. Mitt Romney already is. Mike Huckabee is a maybe. Ron Paul has nothing to lose. Only Romney of the three has a realistic shot at the nomination. But as a group theyre not terribly exciting
Republicans have benefited from the mistakes of President Obama and congressional Democrats. Opposition alone plus Obamas failure to revive the economy should produce gains in the House Senate governorships and state legislatures this fall. The next step is to improve the partys stature.
Thats where the 2010 election comes in. One way or another it will thrust a number of attractive Republicans front and center as credible presidential candidates in 2012 or potential candidates or merely as leaders.
Lets start with John Kasich and Meg Whitman. If Kasich is elected governor of Ohio and Whitman governor of California its possible theyll run for president in 2012. Okay its unlikely but not entirely far-fetched. Woodrow Wilson pulled this off. In his first run for office he was elected New Jersey governor in 1910. Two years later he won the presidency.
What if Kasich quickly turned the Ohio economy around and Whitmans application of shock therapy to Californias out-of-control government spending and antibusiness climate showed significant signs of working? Again unlikely. And they have to get elected in the first place a hard task. But should they win theyd be governors of big important states and at the very least theyd be Republican stars and touted as future presidential candidates.
Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana whos open to running in 2012 will be more inclined if Republicans hold the Indiana senate (33-17 Republican now) and capture the house (52-47 Democratic) in November. That would ease the burden of governing in his last two years in office and allow time for campaigning for president.
Post-midterm elections Governors Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Haley Barbour of Mississippi must decide quickly what to do when their terms expire in 2011. Jindal has indicated hell run for reelection. Hes recruited a team of strategists and consultants with experience in national races. So if he forgoes a second term to run for president hell have a senior campaign staff in place. Even as a reelected governor hed no doubt be a national figure available for appearances around the country. Im certain of one thing: Jindal is going to run for president sometime though not necessarily in 2012.
Barbour has been an extremely active head of the Republican Governors Association which pumped millions into the successful races for governor in Virginia and New Jersey in 2009. He flirted with a presidential bid in 2008. Like Perry and Jindal Barbour is regarded as a successful governor notably in guiding Mississippis recovery from Katrina. Hes done little to rebut speculation hell run for president in 2012.
Governors or ex-governors often make better presidential candidates. This may encourage retiring Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty. Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina has built a national network of conservative allies which could be the basis for a presidential bid.
Youll notice I havent mentioned Sarah Palin or Newt Gingrich. Theyre already national figures. Palin seems to feel no urgency about 2012. She may be planning a presidential run but theres no evidence of it. Instead shes giving speeches endorsing Republican candidates appearing on Fox News writing a second book and trying to develop a TV show. Gingrich according to various reports plans to run.
But its Perry for whom 2010 may be the most consequential breakout year. Hes running for reelection on an anti-Washington theme and hes also antiestablishment having beaten the darling of the Texas Republican grandees. For a Republican thats just about perfect positioning.
Fred Barnes is executive editor of The Weekly Standard.
The GOP lacks a standard-bearer for 2012but the list of contenders will be growing in the fall.
Texas Governor Rick Perrys impressive primary victory over Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison is a signal. After the midterm election this November the field of candidates for the Republican presidential nomination in 2012 (or later) is going to get bigger and possibly better.
The list is long: Mitch Daniels John Kasich Meg Whitman Bobby Jindal Haley Barbour Sarah Palin Newt Gingrich Tim Pawlenty and Jim DeMint. And Perry.
To qualify as a serious national candidate Perry must defeat Democrat Bill Whiteand not in a squeakerthis fall for a third term as governor of the nations second most populous state. But his primary win last week was enough to prompt preliminary chatter about a presidential bid in 2012.
He has repeatedly and emphatically insisted he has no interest in any job outside Texas and I take him at his word. But his situation may soon change. How? A groundswell of support for a Perry presidential candidacy that included a few prominent Republicans could cause him to reconsider. And it should.
A Perry-for-President bandwagon is all but inevitable assuming he trounces White. The case for him is pretty simple: Perry is perhaps the most successful governor in the country. Texas has been a job creation machine on his watch. Even in the current recession Texas has suffered far less than most states. And by the way Perry has a tough tested crew of political advisers who will come in handy if he runs.
Despite four years of steep decline (2005 to 2009) the Republican party doesnt require a total makeover but it sure could use some fresh talent preferably with respectable track records at the national level. The easiest way for a Republican to escape the shadows and attract media attention is by seeking the presidency.
Several of the candidates left over from 2008 may run again. Mitt Romney already is. Mike Huckabee is a maybe. Ron Paul has nothing to lose. Only Romney of the three has a realistic shot at the nomination. But as a group theyre not terribly exciting
Republicans have benefited from the mistakes of President Obama and congressional Democrats. Opposition alone plus Obamas failure to revive the economy should produce gains in the House Senate governorships and state legislatures this fall. The next step is to improve the partys stature.
Thats where the 2010 election comes in. One way or another it will thrust a number of attractive Republicans front and center as credible presidential candidates in 2012 or potential candidates or merely as leaders.
Lets start with John Kasich and Meg Whitman. If Kasich is elected governor of Ohio and Whitman governor of California its possible theyll run for president in 2012. Okay its unlikely but not entirely far-fetched. Woodrow Wilson pulled this off. In his first run for office he was elected New Jersey governor in 1910. Two years later he won the presidency.
What if Kasich quickly turned the Ohio economy around and Whitmans application of shock therapy to Californias out-of-control government spending and antibusiness climate showed significant signs of working? Again unlikely. And they have to get elected in the first place a hard task. But should they win theyd be governors of big important states and at the very least theyd be Republican stars and touted as future presidential candidates.
Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana whos open to running in 2012 will be more inclined if Republicans hold the Indiana senate (33-17 Republican now) and capture the house (52-47 Democratic) in November. That would ease the burden of governing in his last two years in office and allow time for campaigning for president.
Post-midterm elections Governors Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Haley Barbour of Mississippi must decide quickly what to do when their terms expire in 2011. Jindal has indicated hell run for reelection. Hes recruited a team of strategists and consultants with experience in national races. So if he forgoes a second term to run for president hell have a senior campaign staff in place. Even as a reelected governor hed no doubt be a national figure available for appearances around the country. Im certain of one thing: Jindal is going to run for president sometime though not necessarily in 2012.
Barbour has been an extremely active head of the Republican Governors Association which pumped millions into the successful races for governor in Virginia and New Jersey in 2009. He flirted with a presidential bid in 2008. Like Perry and Jindal Barbour is regarded as a successful governor notably in guiding Mississippis recovery from Katrina. Hes done little to rebut speculation hell run for president in 2012.
Governors or ex-governors often make better presidential candidates. This may encourage retiring Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty. Senator Jim DeMint of South Carolina has built a national network of conservative allies which could be the basis for a presidential bid.
Youll notice I havent mentioned Sarah Palin or Newt Gingrich. Theyre already national figures. Palin seems to feel no urgency about 2012. She may be planning a presidential run but theres no evidence of it. Instead shes giving speeches endorsing Republican candidates appearing on Fox News writing a second book and trying to develop a TV show. Gingrich according to various reports plans to run.
But its Perry for whom 2010 may be the most consequential breakout year. Hes running for reelection on an anti-Washington theme and hes also antiestablishment having beaten the darling of the Texas Republican grandees. For a Republican thats just about perfect positioning.
Fred Barnes is executive editor of The Weekly Standard.
