The race is too close to call.
New polls in the New Jersey governors race are as muddy as the states machine politics. A survey by the Public Policy Institute a Democratic firm has GOP candidate Chris Christie leading Democratic Governor Jon Corzine by four points.
A Rasmussen poll has the Christie lead at three points. Those surveys are contradicted however by a new Quinnipiac poll showing Mr. Corzine taking the lead for the first time by 43 to 38 with independent Christopher Daggett at 13.
The only thing clear from all the surveys is that Mr. Daggett isnt going to be governor. That puts pressure on his voters not to play spoiler and shift their allegiance to another candidate. Quinnipiac finds that 38 of Mr. Daggetts voters say theyre prepared to change their minds. Given the profile of the average Daggett voter Mr. Christie can probably count on taking three-fifths of those who abandon the independent.
That makes the race highly volatile. Mr. Christie who started with a strong lead has been dragged down by Mr. Corzines relentless negative advertising -- almost all of it financed from his personal fortune. But Mr. Christie has also been hurt by his failure to come up with clear plans for dealing with the states No. 1 issue: sky-high property taxes. Only 12 of voters including a quarter of Republicans believe he will be able to cut those taxes if elected governor.
Still Mr. Christie can take some solace from the last time a lackluster Republican challenger was locked in a close race with a controversial Democratic governor. In 1993 the final Newark Star-Ledger poll showed Governor Jim Florio leading Republican Christie Whitman by nine points.
The Record of Hackensack had the Florio lead at ten points. In the end Ms. Whitman won by a single point largely because she easily carried the one out of eight voters who settled on a candidate at the last minute. Whatever happens Messrs. Christie and Corzine should probably expect their contest not to be decided until the wee hours of Wednesday morning.
The race is too close to call.
New polls in the New Jersey governors race are as muddy as the states machine politics. A survey by the Public Policy Institute a Democratic firm has GOP candidate Chris Christie leading Democratic Governor Jon Corzine by four points.
A Rasmussen poll has the Christie lead at three points. Those surveys are contradicted however by a new Quinnipiac poll showing Mr. Corzine taking the lead for the first time by 43 to 38 with independent Christopher Daggett at 13.
The only thing clear from all the surveys is that Mr. Daggett isnt going to be governor. That puts pressure on his voters not to play spoiler and shift their allegiance to another candidate. Quinnipiac finds that 38 of Mr. Daggetts voters say theyre prepared to change their minds. Given the profile of the average Daggett voter Mr. Christie can probably count on taking three-fifths of those who abandon the independent.
That makes the race highly volatile. Mr. Christie who started with a strong lead has been dragged down by Mr. Corzines relentless negative advertising -- almost all of it financed from his personal fortune. But Mr. Christie has also been hurt by his failure to come up with clear plans for dealing with the states No. 1 issue: sky-high property taxes. Only 12 of voters including a quarter of Republicans believe he will be able to cut those taxes if elected governor.
Still Mr. Christie can take some solace from the last time a lackluster Republican challenger was locked in a close race with a controversial Democratic governor. In 1993 the final Newark Star-Ledger poll showed Governor Jim Florio leading Republican Christie Whitman by nine points.
The Record of Hackensack had the Florio lead at ten points. In the end Ms. Whitman won by a single point largely because she easily carried the one out of eight voters who settled on a candidate at the last minute. Whatever happens Messrs. Christie and Corzine should probably expect their contest not to be decided until the wee hours of Wednesday morning.
