November 2010: Enthusiasm Matters But Excitement ... Not So Much

By Ed Kilgore The Democratic Strategist Its very clear that the 2010 midterm elections will revolve around turnout patterns not some big change of public opinion since 2008. Intensifying an already strong tendency in mid-term elections Republicans and Republican-leaning independents at present are looking marginally more likely to vote than Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents.   Heres how Tom Jensen of Public Policy Polling expresses it:

There continues to be no doubt this falls election will have more to do with whether Democrats can turn out Obama voters than keep them in the fold. Very few voters are shifting their allegiance from the 2008 election - 8 of Obama voters say theyll vote Republican this time but an almost equal 6 of McCain voters say theyll vote Democratic this time. When it comes to voters switching sides its basically a wash but Republicans are doing well across the country due to Democratic disengagement.

So voter enthusiasm matters particularly when it happens to coincide with the longstanding pattern in midterm elections of older white voters turning out at significantly higher levels than young and minority voters who were a big part of the Democratic base in 2008. But hows about all the talk about excitement and the exceptional energy the Tea Party movement is said to have brought to the Republican Party? Heres Jensen again:

Among voters who are very excited about voting this fall Republicans hold a 52-40 advantage. How much that matters is up for debate though. Scott Brown led the Massachusetts Senate race 59-40 with very excited voters but won by only 5. Chris Christie led the New Jersey Governors race 60-34 with very excited voters but his final margin of victory was only 4 points. As Ive said before unexcited voters count the same as excited ones and our polling so far this cycle has suggested the Democrats who answer our surveys vote whether theyre excited about it or not. So Im not sure how much the wide GOP advantage with very excited voters really matters.

So to sum it up enthusiasm matters up to the point that it motivates someone to vote. Beyond that a votes a vote and you only get to vote once. Its a simple point but one often lost on people in both parties who value energy and excitement a bit too much. Unless their mood is communicable or translates into campaign activity of some sort super-psyched voters who snake-dance to the polls as part of some movement have no more weight that those who hold their noses and vote unhappily. Thats worth remembering next time you see one of those measurements of voter excitement.