By Alexis Simendinger
Nothing in Iowas murky caucus results amended the calculus for President Obama and his Chicago re-election team. According to their own statements Wednesday they still believe Mitt Romney has the best chance to become the GOP nominee -- and are preparing accordingly.
On Wednesday during an event in Ohio Obama continued the sharply partisan campaigning against Republicans in Congress that he began in September. Jabbing at obstructionism anew the president announced an end-run around Senate Republicans to recess-appoint" Richard Cordray to immediately take the reins of the new Consumer Financial Protection Bureau. The Senate blocked Cordrays nomination in December based on conservative objections to the CFPBs powers. Republicans immediately howled that Obama grabbed power the Constitution does not grant him to put Cordray in the job.
Obamas campaign advisers did not lift their focus from Romney even after the former Massachusetts governor was virtually tied in Iowa by Rick Santorum -- with Rep. Ron Paul on their heels. The GOP field minus Michele Bachmann who withdrew from the contest Wednesday and Texas Gov. Rick Perry who said he will make a stand in South Carolina made a dash for New Hampshire next where Romney leads in the
polls.
He entered Iowa as a kind of weak front-runner and he leaves as a weak front-runner" Obama campaign senior strategist David Axelrod told reporters during an afternoon conference call. Romney is the 25 percent man" he added derisively referring to
national polls and
the Iowa outcome which had the former governor besting Santorum a former Pennsylvania senator by a mere eight votes out of 122000 cast.
What captured the Obama campaigns attention about Iowa -- and seemed to garner their grudging respect -- was Romneys ability to fund negative ads through his own campaign war chest and a super PAC organized by supporters. The political action committee is supposed to be untethered from the candidates control by law but the Obama campaign speaks of the operations as if they are observably coordinated.
The Romney-inspired attack ads eviscerated Newt Gingrichs bid to win in Iowa where polls had shown the former House speaker leading until the final week. Axelrod pronounced the negative advertising very effective" in knocking out a key challenger. Santorums long odds and his patient retail politicking in the Hawkeye State allowed him to slip into Romneys lane at the finish line despite being vastly outspent. Obamas team predicted Santorum will be the next target of advertising intended to steer the nomination to Romney.
The pro-Romney PAC Restore Our Future invested $2.8 million in Iowa ads compared with $1.5 million spent by Romneys presidential campaign
according to research compiled by NBC News with Smart Media Group Delta a media ad tracking firm. When the ads began running against Gingrich on Dec. 8 he was at 26 percent in the polls and surging. By caucus night his support had plummeted to 13 percent and Gingrich let everyone know whom he blamed for the bombardment.
The Romney weaponry trained on Gingrich -- and the targets long checkered public record -- could just as efficiently hit the president this year as he attempts to persuade voters that he deserves a second term because his administration has a lot more work to do." Three-quarters of the public say the country is heading in the wrong direction while unemployment remains stubbornly high at 8.6 percent. Although consumer confidence perked up in December some
analysts have suggested that the sunnier outlook could actually help nudge the unemployment rate higher (Americans too discouraged to look for work and thus no longer counted by the Labor Department as unemployed could have rejoined the job hunt -- and the jobless count). The December report will be released Friday morning.
The presidents Chicago-based campaign team has drafted
regional scenarios it believes could guide Obama to at least 270 electoral votes in November but each path foresees a close contest with a Republican nominee in key swing states. Negative advertising funded by the eventual GOP nominee together with well-financed Republican assaults by outside groups will impact voter perceptions about Obamas first term especially in up-for-grabs states that will decide the winner.
The presidents campaign advisers said they are concerned about attack ads that await Obama when the GOP primary field shakes out. That is a concerning dynamic" Axelrod conceded. Im not going to sugar-coat it. When you can call out this sort of secret air force and have them carpet-bomb relentlessly and people can . . . pour any amount of money they want in there thats a concern."
Obama will draw legitimate contrasts" with Romney if he is the GOP nominee while still maintaining a positive" bid for his own re-election Axelrod said. Are we going to call him on it when his super PAC attacks? Yes we are going to do that because its an adjunct of his campaign" he added. What were not going to do is engage in unfounded attacks."
The president his team explained may be partially shielded from the content of negative ads because of his incumbency. He is the known figure in the presidential race and voters are familiar with him and his record after nearly a term in office. Theres not a whole lot that they havent heard" Axelrod said. Nonetheless the prospect of hundreds of millions of dollars in negative ads raining down on us is not one that I relish and I dont see any comparable thing happening on the other side."
Political scientists who have dissected negative advertising in national and state elections have drawn at least three
general conclusions that help explain why Romney and his backers are willing to raise and spend millions of dollars on ads and why Obama and his team are worried about whats to come.
First negative advertising that is also informative helps candidates win elections and can make it more likely that the attackers supporters turn out to vote. Second negative political advertising can have unintended consequences. It can engage and alienate but not always predictably. Third voters like to say they dont like negative advertising but they are drawn to negative information and will seek out negative political information.
The president got a small taste of his detractors capabilities when the GOP
released an ad Tuesday challenging Obamas record by using his own words. The Republican National Committee followed Wednesday with the announcement of a
failed promises" website that addresses the vulnerabilities behind 10 Obama pledges. Obamas campaign countered with
its own ad asserting that the president has honored key policy promises he made during a campaign speech delivered four years ago in Iowa.
Juggling governance and campaigning in 2012 will continue to pose new challenges for Obama as events intrude and decisions beckon. On Thursday the president will head to the Pentagon for an event to explain his rationale for defense budget cuts and a gradual shift away from maintaining military readiness to fight
two regional wars simultaneously.
Romney and other GOP challengers have criticized many of the presidents defense goals. The former governor has accused Obama of weakening the United States with policies that would transform the country into a lesser power."
Alexis Simendinger covers the White House for RealClearPolitics. She can be reached at
asimendinger@realclearpolitics.com.
