Republicans have wiped out the advantage held by Democrats
By Jim Rutenberg & Megan Thee-Brenan The New York Times
Critical parts of the coalition that delivered President Obama to the White House & gave Democrats control of Congress in 2006 are switching their allegiance to Republicans in the final phase of the midterm elections according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. Overall 46 of likely voters said they would vote Republican and 40 said they would support Democrats.
Republicans have wiped out the advantage held by Democrats in recent election cycles among women Catholics less affluent Americans and independents.
All of those groups broke for Mr. Obama in 2008 and for congressional Democrats when they grabbed both chambers from the Republicans four years ago according to exit polls.
The poll found that a greater proportion of women would choose Republicans over Democrats in House races than at any time since exit polls began tracking the breakdown in 1982.
The poll provides a pre-election day glimpse of a nation so politically disquieted and disappointed in its current trajectory that 57 percent of the registered voters surveyed said they were more willing to take a chance this year on a candidate with little previous political experience and more than a quarter of them said they were even willing to back a candidate whose holds some views that seem extreme."
On the issue most driving the campaign the economy Republicans have erased the traditional advantage held by Democrats as the party seen as better able to create jobs and by a wide margin Republicans continue to be seen as the party better able to reduce the federal budget deficit.
The public wants compromise from both sides. Yet for all of its general unhappiness it does not seem to be offering any clear guidance for Mr. Obama and the incoming Congress whoever controls it on the big issues.
While almost 9 in 10 respondents said they considered government spending to be an important issue and more than half say they favor 
smaller government offering fewer services there is no consensus on what programs should be cut.
There was clear opposition to addressing one of the governments biggest long-term challenges the growing costs of paying Social Security benefits by raising the retirement age or reducing benefits for future retirees.
Support for one of Mr. Obamas main economic proposals raising taxes on income above $250000 a year has declined substantially over the course of this year.
The poll does not measure the strength of individual candidates in specific districts where indeterminate factors like voter turnout and even weather can affect Election Day results.
And taken nationally Thursday through Tuesday with interviews of 1173 adults the poll did not ask about United States Senate contests as 14 states do not have Senate races this year
(The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points).
But the Republicans current favorability rating in The New York Times/CBS poll reflects its highest level since September 2006.
However disapproval of Congress remains near its highest level in the history of The Times/CBS poll 76 percent of respondents disapproved 14 percent approved and 10 percent expressed no opinion.
Mr. Obamas approval rating remains below 50 percent 43 percent among registered voters which is about where former President Bill Clintons approval rating was in the 1994 midterm elections when Republicans swept control of the House and the Senate.
Yet nearly 60 percent of Americans are optimistic about his next two years in office and nearly 70 percent say the economic slump is just temporary. Half say the economy is where they expected it would be at this point and less than 10 percent blame the administration for the state of the economy leaving the onus on the administration of George W. Bush and Wall Street.
Still Mr. Obama and the Democrats in Congress have their work cut out for them if they intend to rebuild the voting colation that gave them their current positions at the levers of power whatever the outcome on election day.
In the case of women who Obama has been actively courting this fall the shift toward the Republicans was especially marked in the latest poll especially when compared to their stated preferences in the very last Times/CBS poll in mid-September.
In that poll women favored Democrats over Republicans by seven percentage points. In the latest poll women say they are likely to vote to support a Republican over a Democrat by four percentage points suggesting Republican gains among women who were undecided as of last month.
But the shift extended geographically as well. Among poll respondents from the Western 
United States more said they expected to vote for Republicans this year than said they expected to vote for Democrats; majorities of voters from those regions voted for Mr. Obama in 2008 and for the Congressional Democrats in 2006 according to the exit polls taken in those elections.
The Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has clearly emerged as a political liability for her party in the latest Times/CBS poll. Overall 43 percent of all respondents had an unfavorable opinion of Ms. Pelosi; 15 percent had a favorable opinion and 40 percent said they had no opinion. The minority leader in the House who would likely become the speaker in the event of a Republican takeover Representative John Boehner of Ohio remains largely unknown. Three quarters of respondents said they had no opinion of him.
A plurality of registered voters 42 percent said they did not view their vote on Tuesday as a statement about Mr. Obama who is not on the ballot. More than a quarter of them said they viewed their vote as being against him and slightly less than a quarter of them said they viewed their vote as a for him.
In a follow-up interview one poll respondent Judy Berg an independent from Morton Grove Illinois said she voted for Mr. Obama in 2008 because she was looking for a change" adding the change that ensued was not the change I was looking for but something totally out of left field."
This year Ms. Berg a registered nurse said she was leaning toward the Republicans because Im pro life and Im also looking at the immigration issues and the tax issues. I like the Republican agenda on 
these issues better than the Democratic agenda."
Like several other national polls the latest Times/CBS poll shows a considerable enthusiasm" gap between Republicans and Democrats heading into Election Day. Six in 10 Republicans said they were more enthusiastic to vote this year than usual. Four in 10 Democrats said the same.
The poll includes indications that Republicans will have their own challenges should they gain control of one or both chambers of Congress with a new crop of representatives and Senators who identify with the Tea Party movement.
Half of Republican respondents identified in the survey as likely to vote said they were supporters of the Tea Party movement which though diffuse has had success this year in arguing that Republicans have been too eager to choose compromise over principle.
Similar percentages said they wanted Democrats to choose compromise over principle.
By Jim Rutenberg & Megan Thee-Brenan The New York Times
Critical parts of the coalition that delivered President Obama to the White House & gave Democrats control of Congress in 2006 are switching their allegiance to Republicans in the final phase of the midterm elections according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll. Overall 46 of likely voters said they would vote Republican and 40 said they would support Democrats.
Republicans have wiped out the advantage held by Democrats in recent election cycles among women Catholics less affluent Americans and independents.
All of those groups broke for Mr. Obama in 2008 and for congressional Democrats when they grabbed both chambers from the Republicans four years ago according to exit polls.
The poll found that a greater proportion of women would choose Republicans over Democrats in House races than at any time since exit polls began tracking the breakdown in 1982.
The poll provides a pre-election day glimpse of a nation so politically disquieted and disappointed in its current trajectory that 57 percent of the registered voters surveyed said they were more willing to take a chance this year on a candidate with little previous political experience and more than a quarter of them said they were even willing to back a candidate whose holds some views that seem extreme."
On the issue most driving the campaign the economy Republicans have erased the traditional advantage held by Democrats as the party seen as better able to create jobs and by a wide margin Republicans continue to be seen as the party better able to reduce the federal budget deficit.
The public wants compromise from both sides. Yet for all of its general unhappiness it does not seem to be offering any clear guidance for Mr. Obama and the incoming Congress whoever controls it on the big issues.
While almost 9 in 10 respondents said they considered government spending to be an important issue and more than half say they favor smaller government offering fewer services there is no consensus on what programs should be cut.
There was clear opposition to addressing one of the governments biggest long-term challenges the growing costs of paying Social Security benefits by raising the retirement age or reducing benefits for future retirees.
Support for one of Mr. Obamas main economic proposals raising taxes on income above $250000 a year has declined substantially over the course of this year.
The poll does not measure the strength of individual candidates in specific districts where indeterminate factors like voter turnout and even weather can affect Election Day results.
And taken nationally Thursday through Tuesday with interviews of 1173 adults the poll did not ask about United States Senate contests as 14 states do not have Senate races this year
(The poll had a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points).
But the Republicans current favorability rating in The New York Times/CBS poll reflects its highest level since September 2006.
However disapproval of Congress remains near its highest level in the history of The Times/CBS poll 76 percent of respondents disapproved 14 percent approved and 10 percent expressed no opinion.
Mr. Obamas approval rating remains below 50 percent 43 percent among registered voters which is about where former President Bill Clintons approval rating was in the 1994 midterm elections when Republicans swept control of the House and the Senate.
Yet nearly 60 percent of Americans are optimistic about his next two years in office and nearly 70 percent say the economic slump is just temporary. Half say the economy is where they expected it would be at this point and less than 10 percent blame the administration for the state of the economy leaving the onus on the administration of George W. Bush and Wall Street.
Still Mr. Obama and the Democrats in Congress have their work cut out for them if they intend to rebuild the voting colation that gave them their current positions at the levers of power whatever the outcome on election day.
In the case of women who Obama has been actively courting this fall the shift toward the Republicans was especially marked in the latest poll especially when compared to their stated preferences in the very last Times/CBS poll in mid-September.
In that poll women favored Democrats over Republicans by seven percentage points. In the latest poll women say they are likely to vote to support a Republican over a Democrat by four percentage points suggesting Republican gains among women who were undecided as of last month.
But the shift extended geographically as well. Among poll respondents from the Western United States more said they expected to vote for Republicans this year than said they expected to vote for Democrats; majorities of voters from those regions voted for Mr. Obama in 2008 and for the Congressional Democrats in 2006 according to the exit polls taken in those elections.
The Democratic House Speaker Nancy Pelosi has clearly emerged as a political liability for her party in the latest Times/CBS poll. Overall 43 percent of all respondents had an unfavorable opinion of Ms. Pelosi; 15 percent had a favorable opinion and 40 percent said they had no opinion. The minority leader in the House who would likely become the speaker in the event of a Republican takeover Representative John Boehner of Ohio remains largely unknown. Three quarters of respondents said they had no opinion of him.
A plurality of registered voters 42 percent said they did not view their vote on Tuesday as a statement about Mr. Obama who is not on the ballot. More than a quarter of them said they viewed their vote as being against him and slightly less than a quarter of them said they viewed their vote as a for him.
In a follow-up interview one poll respondent Judy Berg an independent from Morton Grove Illinois said she voted for Mr. Obama in 2008 because she was looking for a change" adding the change that ensued was not the change I was looking for but something totally out of left field."
This year Ms. Berg a registered nurse said she was leaning toward the Republicans because Im pro life and Im also looking at the immigration issues and the tax issues. I like the Republican agenda on these issues better than the Democratic agenda."
Like several other national polls the latest Times/CBS poll shows a considerable enthusiasm" gap between Republicans and Democrats heading into Election Day. Six in 10 Republicans said they were more enthusiastic to vote this year than usual. Four in 10 Democrats said the same.
The poll includes indications that Republicans will have their own challenges should they gain control of one or both chambers of Congress with a new crop of representatives and Senators who identify with the Tea Party movement.
Half of Republican respondents identified in the survey as likely to vote said they were supporters of the Tea Party movement which though diffuse has had success this year in arguing that Republicans have been too eager to choose compromise over principle.
Similar percentages said they wanted Democrats to choose compromise over principle.
