By Karl Rove
Very little is safe for Democrats this fall.
If Massachusetts puts Brown in its a message of thats enough. Lets stop the giveaways and lets get jobs going.
Marlene Connolly is a 73-year-old Massachusetts Democrat who cast her first vote for a Republican in supporting Scott Brown. Her quote and story comes to us via the New York Times but she stands out for this reason: She shows us that those who actually cast ballots in the Bay State did so because they are frustrated with the administrations unrestrained federal spending and failed economic recovery policies.
And heres what Washington needs to keep in mind as it debates the meaning of Massachusetts. Ramming health care through now wont insulate Democrats from voter ire in November. It will feed a fire over spending that is already blistering them.
But dont take my word for it. Consider that the administration is now busy scrambling to find a way to dodge responsibility for its own reckless fiscal record. That much was on display recently when David Axelrod a political strategist for the president penned an opinion piece in the Washington Post that took aim directly at me.
Mr. Axelrod wrote that no one is entitled to his own facts even as he argued that George W. Bush is responsible for Barack Obamas deficits. He argued that Mr. Bush forced the hand of this administration by leaving office in the midst of a sharp recession.
That argument wont fly for two reasons. First at some point this administration has to take responsibility for itself. Its also not even close to accurate. Consider that from Jan. 20 2001 to Jan. 20 2009 the debt held by the public grew $3 trillion under Mr. Bushto $6.3 trillion from $3.3 trillion at a time when the national economy grew as well.
By comparison from the day Mr. Obama took office last year to the end of the current fiscal year according to the Office of Management and Budget the debt held by the public will grow by $3.3 trillion. In 20 months Mr. Obama will add as much debt as Mr. Bush ran up in eight years.
Mr. Obamas spending plan approved by Congress last February calls for doubling the national debt in five years and nearly tripling it in 10.
Mr. Bushs deficits ran an average of 3.2 of GDP slightly above the post World War II average of 2.7. Mr. Obamas plan calls for deficits that will average 4.2 over the next decade.
Team Obama has been on historys biggest spending spree which has included a $787 billion stimulus a $30 billion expansion of a child health-care program and a $410 billion federal spending bill that increased nondefense discretionary spending 10 for the last half of fiscal year 2009. Mr. Obama also hiked nondefense discretionary spending another 12 for fiscal year 2010.
Mr. Bush did move to give voters more control over their tax dollars. Both his Social Security reform ideas and the drug program he created offered templates for driving federal spending curves in the right direction counter to what Democrats wanted to do.
Democrats for example proposed creating a prescription drug program as an alternative to the one Mr. Bush proposed that would have cost a projected $800 billion over 10 years. The Bush drug benefit was originally expected to cost half that amount and today costs a third less than what it was initially expected to cost because it uses market forces to drive prices down.
Mr. Axelrod claims the pork-laden stimulus package has been a success. But Mr. Obama told Americans that if it were passed unemployment wouldnt rise above 8. It is now 10. The president also said it would create 3.7 million jobs 90 of which would be in the private sector. By Mr. Obamas standards the stimulus failed miserably.
Mr. Bush did sign the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) into law and loaned $240 billion to banks. But those loans are being returned at a profit to the Treasury. Rather than using those funds to pay down the deficit Mr. Obama wants to use them for new spending. Whats more he has lavished some $320 billion from TARP on car companies union allies and pet causes that will never be fully returned.
Mr. Axelrod boasts Mr. Obamas proposed health reforms will not add to the federal deficit. But if that turns out to be true it will only be because Massachusetts voters just elected a senator who promises to vote against those reforms.
In going after Mr. Bushs fiscal record Mr. Axelrod unwittingly revealed why Democrats are losing. Mr. Obama and congressional Democrats have made a mess of the nations finances and are desperate to pin the blame on someone else. Its not likely to work.
Even in deep blue Massachusetts voters arent standing idly by while the administration puts the nation on a dangerous trajectory. When Democrats lose a state they carried by 26 points a little more than a year ago very little is safe for Mr. Obamas party this fall.
Mr. Rove the former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush is the author of the forthcoming book Courage and Consequence (Threshold Editions).
