The news out of the Federal Reserve last week that median family net worth had dropped roughly 40 between 2007 and 2010 drew huge headlines across the country. But even with that level of attention its possible to underestimate the
impact those numbers could have on the 2012 election which will function in no small part as a referendum on the state of the economy and whether
President Obama or former Massachusetts governor
Mitt Romney is better equipped to get things moving in the right direction.
Remember that the question that Obama must find an answer to if he wants to win that is is
Are you better off than you were four years ago?" And much of Obamas ability to answer that question depends on how voters perceive not only him but also the relative health of the economy.
The median family net worth numbers dont help that perception particularly when viewed across a broader timeline which suggest net worth may well be at its lowest point since the 1960s. (
The chart here is courtesy of Reuters Felix Salmon from calculations made by Bloomberg Businessweeks Peter Coy.)
Theres lots and lots of other evidence swirling in the political world that suggests that voters are going to head to their polling place this fall with a pessimistic answer to the are you better off" question.
Take the latest Gallup numbers on Americans perceptions of whether now is a good time to find a quality" job. More than three in four says now is a bad time to get a good job and while that bad" number had dropped somewhat since the end of 2011 its still in tough political territory.
Heres that data in chart form.
And then there is the fact that
large majorities of Americans believe that the country is headed off on the wrong direction and have since the start of the Obama Administration. (Worth noting: The wrong direction" numbers for Obama are far less bad than they were for the Bush Administration in its final days a fact that could allow Obama to keep making the I inherited this mess" argument.)
Obamas saving grace such as it is when it comes to peoples perception of their economic well-being (and that of the country) could well be the unemployment rate which until the May jobs report had been falling (mostly) steadily since the summer of 2009.
Heres a look at the broad sweep of the unemployment rate since Obama came into office:
The simple fact for Obama is that in order to survive politically in November he needs one (or ideally several) of the measures listed above to begin showing a positive or at least less negative trend line.
Such a development would allow Obama to make the case that while progress has been slow there
is progress and the existence of that progress means that he deserves another four years.
Thats how he answers the are you better off" question. Not by convincingly showing people that they
are but rather by suggesting that the country is beginning to climb out of a deep hole and the only way to continue that ascent is to reelect him.
Its no easy sell particularly when perceptions on just about every measure of economic strength are running so negatively at the moment.
Romney to appear on first non-Fox Sunday show: For the first time this campaign Romney will appear on a Sunday show that is not Fox News Sunday."
Romney who has largely focused on conservative media early in his campaign appears to be starting to branch out now and it
begins with CBSs Face the Nation" this weekend.
Romneys performance under some tougher questioning should say a lot about how prepared he is to be the GOP nominee this fall. Its Must See TV for sure.
