The Economy Health Care Reform & Louis Gates Jr. Grease the Skids
From The Pew Research Center
Barack Obamas approval ratings have suffered major declines. The presidents overall job approval number fell from 61 in mid-June to 54 currently. The new poll also finds significant declines over the last few months in the percentage of Americans giving Obama high marks for dealing with health care foreign policy and tax policy. Three factors have likely contributed to more negative views of Obama.
His approval ratings for handling the economy and the federal budget deficit have also fallen sharply tumbling to 38 and 32 respectively. Majorities now say they disapprove of the way the president is handling these two issues.
First criticisms of the governments economic policies are mounting.
For the first time since Obama took office as many say the government is on the wrong track (48) as on the right track (46) in handling the nations economic problems. In May 53 said the government was on the right track on the economy while 39 said it was on the wrong track.
Secondly the latest national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press conducted July 22-26 among 1506 adults reached on landlines and cell phones finds that many of the health care proposals being debated in Congress are sparking negative reactions especially from those following the debate most closely.
By a 44 to 38 margin more Americans generally oppose than favor the health care proposals now before Congress. Opposition rises to 56 among people who say they have heard a lot about legislation to overhaul the health care system. Concerns about the costs and increased government involvement in the health care system are volunteered most often by Americans critical of the health care proposals.
Thirdly Obamas comments on the arrest of Henry Louis Gates Jr. appear to have played some role in his ratings decline.
News about the arrest of the prominent African American Harvard professor at his Cambridge home was widely followed by the public and 79 are aware of Obamas comments on the incident. Analysis of the poll data found that the presidents approval ratings fell among non-Hispanic whites over the course of the interviewing period as the focus of the Gates story shifted from details about the incident to Obamas remarks about the incident(1).
Interviews Wednesday and Thursday of last week found 53 of whites approving of Obamas job performance. This slipped to 46 among whites interviewed Friday through Sunday as the Gates story played out across the nation.
Consistent with this trend a small re-contact survey conducted Monday night finds a mostly negative reaction particularly among whites to Obamas comments on the controversy even though the public is closely divided over who was at fault in the original dispute.
Based on what people have heard about the incident in Cambridge 27 of blame Gates 25 fault the police officer 13 volunteer both or neither and 36 offer no opinion. However more people disapprove (41) than approve (29) of the presidents handling of the situation. And by a margin of about two-to-one more whites disapprove (45) than approve (22).
More generally the new survey shows that since June Obamas overall job approval ratings dropped among most political and demographic groups.
The greatest declines are apparent among Republicans and independents poorer people especially poorer whites and 30 to 49 year olds. When looking at Obamas approval ratings on specific issues the president has lost ground in most cases among Republicans Democrats and independents. Some of the larger declines are among members of his own party.
Yet Obama is widely liked by the public on a more personal level with close to three-quarters (74) saying they like the kind of person he is and the way he leads his life. Asked why among the most frequent responses offered are impressions that he is honest has integrity is a good father and is intelligent.
A Reserve of Confidence in Obama
While the American public has grown more critical of Obamas handling of the economy and budget deficit over the last few months majorities continue to express optimism about his ability to fix the economy and deal with the budget deficit in the long term.
As in June and April more than six-in-ten (63) say they are optimistic that Obamas policies will improve the economy and more than half (55) say they are optimistic that he can reduce the budget deficit over time. The views of political independents account in part for the disparity between Obamas sinking approval ratings and the continued optimism that he will succeed.
Independents remain largely optimistic but critical of the way the president is currently dealing with the economy and budget deficit. In contrast partisans tend to see it just one way Democrats mostly approve of Obamas performance and are overwhelmingly optimistic about his policies. Republicans mostly disapprove and are pessimistic.
In addition relatively few Americans (21) believe that Obamas policies have made the economy worse. About as many 24 say his policies have made things better. As in previous polls the largest share (49) say administration policies have not yet had an effect or that it is too soon to tell.
The poll also finds that while the public is expressing broader disapproval of how Obama is dealing with the budget deficit majorities continue to give a higher priority to spending more to make health care accessible and affordable to help the economy recover and to improve education rather than to reducing the budget deficit.
Partisan divisions on these issues remain strong with most Republicans putting deficit reduction first and most Democrats giving priority to additional spending. Most independents continue to see spending on health care and on education as higher priorities than deficit reduction. They are split as to whether economic stimulus spending or deficit reduction is more important right now.
Reactions to Health Care Proposals
Although the public has a more negative than positive general reaction to the health care proposals being debated on Capitol Hill there is broad support for many of the core elements of the legislation
currently before Congress. Nearly two-in-three (65) favor requiring that all Americans have health insurance with the government aiding those who cannot afford it. Nearly as many (61) favor requiring employers who do not provide insurance to pay into a government health care fund. And there is broad support (79) for prohibiting insurance companies from denying insurance to people with pre-existing conditions.
But reactions to the methods proposed to make sure more people have access to health care coverage are mixed.
A thin 52 majority favor a government health insurance plan to compete with private plans. There is broad support (63) however for raising the taxes on affluent people to help pay for changes to the health care system. On the other hand there is equally strong opposition (62) to new taxes on employees with health insurance benefits above a certain value.
Most (58) also oppose putting tighter restrictions on what medical procedures Medicare and Medicaid will cover.
The poll found that groups that oppose the general legislative proposals such as Republicans the elderly and more affluent people do so by wider margins than backers such as Democrats the young and less affluent people support the proposals.
To view the entire Pew Research Center for the People & the Press report
click here.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Analysis of media coverage by the Project for Excellence in Journalism showed that last week prior to Obamas remarks the Gates case was the No. 3 story filling 12 of the newshole and trailing the economy and the health care debate. But it built momentum subsequently and was the top story in the second half of the week filling 25 of the newshole from July 23-26.
