By Karl Rove
Divisive rhetoric could alienate swing voters who will determine the next election.
In recent weeks President Barack Obama has demolished any expectations that he would seek re-election by returning to his idealistic rhetoric of 2008 when he promised to heal Americas political divisions.
Instead Mr. Obama shrilly insists his Republican opposition puts party ahead of country with policies that would fundamentally cripple America. He pits American against American on the basis of their bank accounts saying its time for millionaires and billionaires to pay their fair share.
And hes again turning to preposterous straw man arguments such as when he told Congress earlier this month that Republicans would just dismantle government refund everybodys money and let everyone write their own rules and tell everyone theyre on their own.
Mr. Obamas attacks are not just at odds with his 2008 campaigns lofty tone. They are also politically dumb.
True the president runs little risk of losing Democratic votes next fall. Some in his party are less enthusiastic about donating or volunteering than they were in 2008 but they will still vote for him. The Sept. 18 Gallup poll shows 88 of Democrats favoring him over Texas Gov. Rick Perry and 85 over former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. These are relatively strong numbers.
But by trying to reignite Democratic donor and activist fervor with slash-and-burn attacks Mr. Obama mostly damages himself. The damage will be to his support among swing voters. Accusing political opponents of being un-American and engaging in class warfare to push trillions in tax increases are not the messages Mr. Obama needs to win back those who decided the last presidential election in his favor and will determine the outcome of the next.
One way to measure the disenchantment of these critical swing voters is to compare the presidents job approval rating today with where it stood at the time of his inauguration. Its virtually impossible for presidents to keep their approval ratings at the sky-high levels they enjoy at their inaugurations. Decline is inevitable. But the steepness of the decline matters. That is why the president should be alarmed.
Mr. Obamas job approval rating was 67 in January 2009. By the Sept. 25 Gallup Poll it had fallen to 41. More importantly Mr. Obamas standing has declined significantly among five groups vital to his success in 2008.
The presidents approval rating among young people has plummeted 30 points (it now stands at just 45). Among both independents and women it has dropped 26 points (to 36 and 43 respectively). Among college graduates its fallen 24 points (to 45). Among Hispanics its declined 23 points (leaving his support at just 51).
Mr. Obama carried all these groups in 2008: young people by 66 to 32 (a swing toward the Democrats of 12 points from 2004); independents by 52 to 44 (a swing of three points); women by 56 to 43 (a swing of five points); college graduates by 50 to 48 (a swing of four points); and Hispanics by 67 to 31 (a swing of 14 points).
To win in 2012 Republican candidates dont need to carry these groups. They merely need to cut into Mr. Obamas numbers and the president is making that job easier for the GOP.
There are two ways the president could re-energize Democrats. One is by offering a positive uplifting vision which is what Mr. Obama did in 2008. If employed now that strategy would allow the president to reconnect with the swing voters he desperately needs for victory.
The other approach is to feed the Democratic base red meat which is what Mr. Obama is doing now. But what pleases left-wing donors and activists will alienate the decisive voters.
Team Obama assumes the president can play to disenchanted donors and MoveOn.org organizers now and pivot to the center next fall. Im not so sure. The image of the presidents red-hot rhetoric and slashing tone combined with his tax-and-spend policies will linger.
Republicans will be sure theyre not forgotten. Mr. Obama is providing an embarrassment of riches for GOP ad makers.
David Axelrod one of the presidents top political advisers recently said Mr. Obama faces a Titanic struggle for re-election. Mr. Axelrod is right but not in the way he means. We are rapidly approaching the time when arguing about one set of political tactics versus another may be about as useful for Mr. Obama as rearranging deck chairs on the worlds most famous passenger liner.
