By Clark S. Judge
Late yesterday Gallup posted the following pre-election assessment:
Taking Gallups final surveys margin of error into account the historical model predicts that the Republicans could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up with gains well beyond that possible."
That would mean 238 Republican votes in the House next year at the very least. As of this morning Real Clear Politics Battle for the Senate" analysis projects a 50-50 Democrat-Republican outcome in the upper chamber. Only a few days ago RCP had the Democrats at 52 seats in the new Senate. They still give the Democrats both West Virginia and California. But with the wind blowing so powerfully the GOPs way at least one and possibly both of those close races could go Republican too. It isnt over til its over. The unions will be launching massive get-out-the-vote efforts and with federally mandated same-day registration they will surely manufacture tens of thousands of votes. The trial lawyers are poised to pull a Franken all over the country litigating every close vote count until the Democrat emerges a winner. And
who knows in how many states the electronic voting machines have been manipulated as appears to have been discovered in Nevada?
A five point-plus race is hard to steal. A blow out may not be counted as a blow out but odds are high it will be counted as a win. So the key to winning tomorrow is to win big which looks likely.
Assuming a blow out what happened?
Two years ago the mainstream media was reading the Republican Partys obituary. What brought us here and where are we going?
Here are three facts to keep in mind in the weeks ahead:
Fact Number 1:
Tuesdays win will not have happened overnight.
Since the late 1990s what might be called the Great American Swing Vote has been looking for elected officials who would restrain spending keep taxes low and produce budget surpluses. This vote was part of the story of the 2000 election when Al Gore walked away from the Clinton-GOP-
Congress centrist legacy with his People versus the Powerful" campaign and the Great American Swing Vote turned to George W. Bush.
By 2005 pollsters were starting to find that a large group of GOP supporters from the prior two elections was becoming disaffected from the president and his Congress.
After the 2006 defeat Republican National Committee chairman Ken Mehlman was reported to have told his staff We got out our vote. They just voted for the other guys." That disaffection built over the next two years setting the stage for the Obama victory in 2008.
The new White House team could not have more thoroughly misread their election.
Their trillion-dollar stimulus bailouts health overhaul and projected deficits drove the Great American Swing Vote back to the GOP. The bad economy said to those voters that not only had all that money been spent but we got nothing for it.
Fact Number 2:
This years vote will have been against the Democrats not for the Republicans.
After the cavalcade of trillions the Great American Swing Vote fears the Obama-Reid-Pelosi Democrats. But they dont trust the Republicans. They know that following each campaign the voice of the Dark Side rises.
Last July in the political equivalent of Darth Vaders Luke I am your 
father" former-Senate-majority-leader now-lobbyist Trent Lott said
We dont need a lot of Tea Party types. As soon as they get here we need to co-opt them."
But if the new crop of Luke Skywalkers heeds that corrupting call the GOP could end up going the way of the Whigs. The Great American Swing Vote may be just one election from rejecting both parties. Fact Number 3: Something more than traditionally defined self-interest is moving in our politics. Around the world for example in Britain Germany France and nearly in Australia voters have been backing governments that will cut spending and put their nations on a financially sustainable pro-growth footing. They appear ready to take cuts in benefits to achieve this end even to demand cuts. In the United States voters are calling for something else as well: restricting governments power. Listening to the voices of 2010 you hear the fear that the terrifying run-up in spending doesnt just undermine the governments solvency. It challenges the Constitutional system and compromises the nations character. In other words the Great American Swing Vote cannot be bought with a bridge or an entitlement.
It is the highest-minded phenomenon American politics has produced in decades.
It is the determining force in American politics today and when the new Congress convenes it must be heard.
Clark S. Judge is managing director of White House Writers Group and chairman of Pacific Research Institute.
