Republicans have solidified support among voters who had drifted from the party in recent elections putting the GOP in position for a strong comeback in Novembers mid-term campaign according to a new Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll. The findings suggest that public opinion has hardened in advance of the 2010 elections making it tougher for Democrats to translate their legislative successes or a tentatively improving U.S. economy into gains among voters.
Republicans have reassembled their coalition by reconnecting with independents seniors blue-collar voters suburban women and small town and rural votersall of whom had moved away from the party in the 2006 elections in which Republicans lost control of the House. Those voter groups now favor GOP control of Congress.
This data is what it looks like when Republicans assemble what for them is a winning coalition said GOP pollster Bill McInturff who conducts the survey with Democratic pollster Peter Hart.
He said the Republican alliance appeared to be firmer and more substantial than earlier in the year.
Mr. Hart noted that to his own partys detriment a series of major news events and legislative achievementsincluding passage of a sweeping health-care law negotiating a nuclear disarmament treaty with Russia and making a quick arrest in the Times Square terrorism attempthas not measurably increased support for Democrats. A lot has happened he said but the basic dynamic of the 2010 elections seems almost set in concrete.
A big shift is evident among independents who at this point in the 2006 campaign favored Democratic control of Congress rather than Republican control 40 to 24. In this poll independents favored the GOP 38 to 30.
Suburban women favored Democratic control four years ago by a 24-point margin. In the latest survey they narrowly favored Republicans winning the House. A similar turnaround was seen among voters 65 and older.
This is the inverse of where we were four years ago and in a way that projects to substantial Democratic losses in November Mr. McInturff said.
The new survey gives incumbents of either party little reason for comfort. Only about one in five respondents approved of the job Congress is doing.
People in the survey felt overwhelmingly negative toward both political parties.
Nearly one-third of respondents said they almost never trust the government in 
Washington to do what is rightabout triple the number who felt that way when the question was asked in October.
Those feelings were evident in the past week with the ouster of longtime incumbents from each party. After 18 years in office Sen. Robert Bennett (R Utah) was rejected for re-nomination at Saturdays Utah GOP convention.
On Tuesday Rep. Alan Mollohan (D W.Va.) lost his primary election by a surprisingly large 56 to 44 margin. He had served 14 terms in the House.
It is a tough year for incumbents no doubt about that said Sen. Arlen Specter (D Pa.).
Mr. Specter didnt express great confidence that he would prevail Tuesday in his own primary contest in which polls show him neck-and-neck with Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak.
I dont make predictions; I run for re-election Mr. Specter said. Ive been in a lot of tough races and Im slugging it out.
While the survey results foreshadow a strong showing for Republicans they also show that voters were far more motivated by their frustration with Democrats and government in general than by an affinity for the GOP.
The poll also showed sharp divisions among voters on the subject of illegal immigration.
Among all adults support is high for the new Arizona law that makes it a state crime to be in the country illegally and requires law enforcement officers to question people if they have reasonable suspicions about their immigration status.
Some 64 said they strongly or somewhat supported the law compared with 34 who strongly or somewhat opposed it.
Divisions were even sharper between whites and Hispanics. Among Hispanic respondents 70 opposed the law while 69 of whites in the survey supported it.
The survey oversampled Hispanics to increase accuracy.
Hispanics also held a different view of immigration generally than did white respondents.
In the survey 58 of Hispanics said that immigration helped the U.S. more than it hurt while 56 of white respondents said that immigration hurt more than it helped.
The survey found that at the moment Hispanics greatly favored Democrats over Republicans particularly among Hispanics under age 40.
That stands as a danger sign for the GOP given the rapid growth of that voter bloc.
But Hispanics were far less interested in this years elections than key Republican-leaning groups meaning that the benefits of this trend might not accrue to the Democrats until at least the 2012 elections.
Washington to do what is rightabout triple the number who felt that way when the question was asked in October.
Those feelings were evident in the past week with the ouster of longtime incumbents from each party. After 18 years in office Sen. Robert Bennett (R Utah) was rejected for re-nomination at Saturdays Utah GOP convention.
On Tuesday Rep. Alan Mollohan (D W.Va.) lost his primary election by a surprisingly large 56 to 44 margin. He had served 14 terms in the House.
It is a tough year for incumbents no doubt about that said Sen. Arlen Specter (D Pa.).
Mr. Specter didnt express great confidence that he would prevail Tuesday in his own primary contest in which polls show him neck-and-neck with Democratic U.S. Rep. Joe Sestak.
I dont make predictions; I run for re-election Mr. Specter said. Ive been in a lot of tough races and Im slugging it out.
While the survey results foreshadow a strong showing for Republicans they also show that voters were far more motivated by their frustration with Democrats and government in general than by an affinity for the GOP.
Following the Polls
Just 30 in the survey said they felt positively about the Republican Partya smaller share than for the Democratic Party and the tea party movement. Of those who want to see Republicans control the House less than one-third said that was because they support the GOP and its candidates. Rather nearly two-thirds said they were motivated by opposition to Mr. Obama and Democratic policies. Republicans ran us under financially and the Democrats are worse said poll respondent William Lina 80 of Alden N.Y. who is a registered Democrat but plans to vote a straight Republican ticket in November. He cited frustration with the Democrats health-care overhaul and the economic stimulus program. Joe Carter a 53-year-old Republican from Kingsport Tenn. who has voted for Democrats in the past said he too would likely vote a straight Republican ticket. Both parties do things I disagree with Mr. Carter said. But just to stop whats going on now I will vote Republican. Overall the survey found that voters were split over which party they preferred to control Congress after November with 44 favoring each party. But that finding masked the overwhelming Republican advantage among the voters most likely to cast ballots on Election Day. The voters who said they were most interested in the November elections favor Republican control of Congress by a 20-point margin with 56 backing the GOP and 36 backing Democratsthe highest gap all year on that question. Mr. Obamas approval rating in the survey has remained stable with 50 approving of his job performance compared with 48 in March. In the wake of the attempted Times Square terrorist attack a plurality of respondents approve of his handling of terrorism. But despite White House predictions that passage of Mr. Obamas health-care bill would boost Democrats in November the issue still appeared to be more of a drag on the presidents party. Some 44 called the health plan a bad idea compared to 38 who saw it as a good idea.;)
