By William Galston
Texas Insider Report: WASHINTON D.C Recently 3 respected national surveys -- Gallup Pew & now Battleground -- have given Republicans a double-digit edge among Likely Voters. There are only two possibilities. Either this election is:
- So distinctive that existing likely voter models which are derived inductively from past experience are simply inapplicable or
- We are looking at a potential Republican sweep of historic proportions larger even than 1994.
1994 has long been regarded as the ultra example of contemporary swings.
While Im no expert on this history of public opinion research I can think of no parallel to these findings during my three decades of involvement in national politics.
If so the oft-repeated characterization of this election as a wave seems inadequate; tsunami would be more like it.
In particular these findings have implications closely contested Senate
races which are numerous right now.
During recent decades three elections -- 1980 1986 and 2006 -- have featured tossup races that all ended up falling in the same direction. If Republicans enjoy anything like a double-digit edge on November 2 2010 may well be another such election.
This is a time of testing -- for Democrats but also for the profession of survey research.
On November 3 one or the other will have to go back to the drawing board.
William Galston is Co-Editor of The Democratic Strategist. This item by TDS Co-Editor William Galston is cross-posted from The New Republic.
