As one who polled the 2008 presidential race extensively it dawned on me looking at the various swing state surveys taken recently that many pollsters might be making a significant error that results in President Barack Obama with a lead when perhaps the lead in reality belongs to Mitt Romney.
When surveys are conducted the people who are interviewed are randomly selected registered (in a good poll) likely voters who are willing to respond. But that just begins the process. Those responses must then be weighted or allocated based on some projected model of past or future voter turnout strength. In other words those conducting the poll must adjust the numbers to reflect the percentage of men women Republicans Democrats Independents Whites African-Americans and other groups such as Hispanic-Latinos who will likely vote in the contest.
This is no easy business and it is why polling is as much an art as it is a science. But there are some ways to get to these determinations such as polling a state and asking which party voters identify with separately and before the actual ballot test survey is taken. But enough of these geeky polling details.
I have in my gut a belief that the polls we are seeing now underrate Romneys strength. For example we saw a hugely enthusiastic young voter turnout for Obama in 2008. As a result polls were weighted to give more voter strength to the category of 18- to 29-year-olds than in past years. In general younger voters just do not turn out to vote.
This year I am seeing evidence that the enthusiastic and energetic vote of young Americans for Barack Obama has at the very least lost some of its mojo. That likely means they are not as excited about voting. So an adjustment in the weighting of a survey by a reasonable number of percentage points downward for that group could mean the difference in some of these critical swing states between Obama being up by one point and Romney being ahead by a percentage point or two.
Another group that likely needs some tweaking by pollsters this go-round are those who identify themselves as independent voters. In 2008 they helped decide the presidential race as a significant percentage were sick of the Bush years and were desperate for any type of change they could believe in so to speak. This year we have more voters than ever identifying themselves as independents. This is surely a result of their absolute frustration with a Congress that appears to be chasing its tail and producing nothing of value.
Independent voters seem to be leaning more toward Romney than they did toward John McCain in 2008. So if one considers the fact that this group of voters likely should be inched up in the process of producing the final poll and the fact that Romney is doing better among this group that too might move a survey that shows Obama with a one or two point lead in a given state and shift the more realistic results toward Romney leading by a few points.
As I said polling is as much an art as it is a science. But my guess is that some of the states where we are seeing results with Obama leading are either showing too strong of a lead or perhaps have the wrong man in the lead.
Of course polls dont make campaigns. But they do sometimes create a sense of momentum or as was the case with McCain impending doom.
In the end it is message image and strategy that win the race -- and debates. For Romney the message is not clear and the image is still fuzzy. But he may have a strategy that is going to work. While Obama has burned through his cash early on Romney has been raising dollars and holding back on expenditures. Obamas camp has spent a fortune trying to savage Romney early in the contest. But the Obama camp may run low on cash just as we enter the last and most important phase of the race. If Romney can get his act together and outspend Obama in the end Romney has a sporting chance of winning no matter how the pollsters adjust their numbers.
Matt Towery is author of the book Paranoid Nation: The Real Story of the 2008 Fight for the Presidency. He heads the polling and political information firm InsiderAdvantage. Follow him on Twitter: @matttowery. To find out more about Matt Towery and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.
Matt Towery is a former National Republican legislator of the year and author of Powerchicks: How Women Will Dominate America.
As one who polled the 2008 presidential race extensively it dawned on me looking at the various swing state surveys taken recently that many pollsters might be making a significant error that results in President Barack Obama with a lead when perhaps the lead in reality belongs to Mitt Romney.
When surveys are conducted the people who are interviewed are randomly selected registered (in a good poll) likely voters who are willing to respond. But that just begins the process. Those responses must then be weighted or allocated based on some projected model of past or future voter turnout strength. In other words those conducting the poll must adjust the numbers to reflect the percentage of men women Republicans Democrats Independents Whites African-Americans and other groups such as Hispanic-Latinos who will likely vote in the contest.
This is no easy business and it is why polling is as much an art as it is a science. But there are some ways to get to these determinations such as polling a state and asking which party voters identify with separately and before the actual ballot test survey is taken. But enough of these geeky polling details.
I have in my gut a belief that the polls we are seeing now underrate Romneys strength. For example we saw a hugely enthusiastic young voter turnout for Obama in 2008. As a result polls were weighted to give more voter strength to the category of 18- to 29-year-olds than in past years. In general younger voters just do not turn out to vote.
This year I am seeing evidence that the enthusiastic and energetic vote of young Americans for Barack Obama has at the very least lost some of its mojo. That likely means they are not as excited about voting. So an adjustment in the weighting of a survey by a reasonable number of percentage points downward for that group could mean the difference in some of these critical swing states between Obama being up by one point and Romney being ahead by a percentage point or two.
Another group that likely needs some tweaking by pollsters this go-round are those who identify themselves as independent voters. In 2008 they helped decide the presidential race as a significant percentage were sick of the Bush years and were desperate for any type of change they could believe in so to speak. This year we have more voters than ever identifying themselves as independents. This is surely a result of their absolute frustration with a Congress that appears to be chasing its tail and producing nothing of value.
Independent voters seem to be leaning more toward Romney than they did toward John McCain in 2008. So if one considers the fact that this group of voters likely should be inched up in the process of producing the final poll and the fact that Romney is doing better among this group that too might move a survey that shows Obama with a one or two point lead in a given state and shift the more realistic results toward Romney leading by a few points.
As I said polling is as much an art as it is a science. But my guess is that some of the states where we are seeing results with Obama leading are either showing too strong of a lead or perhaps have the wrong man in the lead.
Of course polls dont make campaigns. But they do sometimes create a sense of momentum or as was the case with McCain impending doom.
In the end it is message image and strategy that win the race -- and debates. For Romney the message is not clear and the image is still fuzzy. But he may have a strategy that is going to work. While Obama has burned through his cash early on Romney has been raising dollars and holding back on expenditures. Obamas camp has spent a fortune trying to savage Romney early in the contest. But the Obama camp may run low on cash just as we enter the last and most important phase of the race. If Romney can get his act together and outspend Obama in the end Romney has a sporting chance of winning no matter how the pollsters adjust their numbers.
Matt Towery is author of the book Paranoid Nation: The Real Story of the 2008 Fight for the Presidency. He heads the polling and political information firm InsiderAdvantage. Follow him on Twitter: @matttowery. To find out more about Matt Towery and read features by other Creators Syndicate writers and cartoonists visit the Creators Syndicate website at www.creators.com.
Matt Towery is a former National Republican legislator of the year and author of Powerchicks: How Women Will Dominate America.
