From The Rothenberg Political Report
Texas Insider Report: WASHINTON D.C. For Democrats diversity" has recently been about ideology & region proving to Americans that the party isnt a bunch of liberals who live in big cities and on the two coasts. For Republicans changing the partys face has been about making it look more like America electing more African-Americans Hispanics & women. Elections both reflect a political partys appeal & create a new face that ultimately recasts that image. And the midterm elections of 2010 are no exception.
Democratic strategists have talked proudly about the partys Southern successes in 2006 and 2008 as well as their victories in Republican-leaning areas. That changed last week and not only because the party lost many governorships in the heartland.
The House Democratic Caucus will look significantly different in January than it does now after the defeat of dozens of moderate Democrats and the partys new look" may be hard to change over the next few years.
Three dozen Democrats who occupied Congressional districts that were won by Republican presidential nominee John McCain in 2008 were swept out by voters on Tuesday. Though some of the Representatives ousted such as Virginias Tom Perriello and Ohios John Boccieri werent easily described as moderates many were.
The casualty list of recently elected moderates includes Reps.:
- Bobby Bright (Ala.)
- Walt Minnick (Idaho)
- Frank Kratovil (Md.)
- Travis Childers (Miss.)
- Glenn Nye (Va.)
- and Harry Teague (N.M.)
- while veteran Reps. Chet Edwards (Texas) and
- Gene Taylor (Miss.) also were defeated.
Bright Minnick and Taylor voted against the stimulus health care reform and cap-and-trade while Childers and Nye voted against both health care reform and cap-and-trade.
A handful of moderate Southern Democrats survived the Republican wave such as Mike Ross (Ark.) Heath Shuler (N.C.) Mike McIntyre (N.C.) and Jim Cooper (Tenn.) but most of the regions Democratic Congressmen are either liberal African-Americans or white liberals such as Steve Cohen (Tenn.) Kathy Castor (Fla.) and Lloyd Doggett (Texas).
The reshaping of the House Democratic Caucus makes it more difficult for Democratic leaders to present the party as a big tent" a strategy that party leaders employed over the past few years to contrast the Democratic Party with the GOP.
And a more liberal Caucus obviously creates the risk that Hill Democrats will move to the left making it more difficult to attract moderates to the party and more difficult to win back some of the Congressional seats the party lost last week.
If Speaker Nancy Pelosi becomes Minority Leader it will be hard for Congressional Democrats to improve their brand.
Even if House Democrats dont move further to the left the party will have an uphill fight in the near future to win back many of the districts it lost.
After all if President Obama runs for re-election in 2012 he is likely to be a drag in most of the districts Republicans won last week since he didnt carry those areas in 2008. Moreover the GOPs gains in numbers of governors and state legislatures means the party can improve its standing through redistricting.
The other side of the coin is that Republicans look more diverse than they did just a week ago.
For the first time in more than a century two African-American Republicans will serve in the House. Tim Scott was elected in South Carolina and Allen West was elected in Florida. Hispanic Jaime Herrera won in Washington state while Francisco Quico" Canseco is a new Member from Texas and Raul Labrador was elected from Idaho.
The governor-elect of New Mexico is Susana Martinez (R) a Hispanic woman. Her lieutenant governor-elect is John Sanchez (R) a Hispanic man. The governor-elect of South Carolina is Nikki Haley (R) an Indian-American woman who joins Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal as the GOPs second Indian-American governor. Rep. Mary Fallin (R) was elected governor in Oklahoma.
Of course the Republican Party remains overwhelmingly white both in its officeholders and its voters. The Democratic Party remains much more diverse when it comes to people of color.
But the GOP needed to start somewhere to change its old white guy" image and it must become a more diverse-looking party as the makeup of the American population and the American electorate changes.
Not all is well for the GOP of course. While Republicans made small inroads in electing more diverse officeholders the party remains weak in New England.
Last week Republicans won just two of the regions 22 Congressional districts both of them in New Hampshire. The party holds three of the
regions 12 Senate seats (two in Maine and one in New Hampshire) and only Maines governorship which Republican Paul LePage won with 38 percent of the vote in a multi-candidate race.
Interestingly Republicans rallied in New York where they had been reduced to holding only two of the states 29 Congressional districts. Last week they added five seats and the GOP may well control the New York state Senate.
Last weeks results were stunningly good for the Republicans. But like the short-lived Democratic gains of 2006 and 2008 2012 could be very different and long-term demographic changes in the U.S. electorate still offer great opportunities for the Democrats.
