Floridians See Dismal Jobs Outlook despite Drop in U.S. Unemployment
BOSTON President Barack Obama is clinging to a 1-point lead over Republican Mitt Romney in Florida 46 percent to 45 percent with 7 percent undecided according to a Suffolk University/7NEWS (WSVN-Miami) poll of likely voters in the Sunshine State. The figure is well within the surveys 4 percent margin of error.
This result contrasts with a Suffolk University/7NEWS (WSVN-Miami) poll of likely voters taken at the beginning of the GOP primary season in January when Romney led Obama by 47 percent to 42 percent in Florida.
Despite locking up the Republican nomination and a strong showing in the Florida Republican primary in January Romney still has a lot of work to do to win over Florida voters" said David Paleologos director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center in Boston. He would need to repair the fallout of negativity from the Republican primaries by being more likable and offering general-election voters a positive alternative to President Obama."
The bruising Republican Primary has led to a popularity slide for Romney with 42 percent of likely voters rating him favorably and 45 percent unfavorably. This compares to Romneys January ratings of 44 percent favorable and 37 percent unfavorable.
Some voters cited negative views of Romney as motivation to choose Obama. In the Obama-Romney matchup the poll showed that 77 percent of Obama voters would cast votes for Obama" while 23 percent would be voting against Romney." The against Romney" subset of current Obama voters grew from 17 percent in January to 23 percent today.
Majority says country on wrong track
Although a clear majority of Sunshine State voters (60 percent) said they felt the country was on the wrong track the number of voters who believe the country is on the right track has jumped to 31 percent up from 27 percent in January and 20 percent in October 2011.
This positive movement on perceptions about the direction of the country over two consecutive polls is solid evidence that things are looking better to those who werent sure in the last poll" said Paleologos. An acceleration of this number is the trajectory that Obama could ride to reelection as people tie the economy to his incumbency in a positive way."
Unemployment
Despite Fridays report that the national unemployment rate had dropped to 8.1 percent a three-year low 43 percent of likely voters indicated that the jobs outlook is poor in Florida; 38 percent rated it as fair; 11 percent said it is good; and 2 percent said excellent.
Analyzing VP choices
Both Florida Sen. Marco Rubio and former Gov. Jeb Bush could move voters to Romney. A Romney-Bush ticket would lead Obama-Biden by 2 points and a Romney-Rubio ticket would lead Obama-Biden by 3 points 47 percent to 44 percent.
A small percentage of Obama voters would leave the Democratic ticket to follow Rubio tipping the scales to the GOP" said Paleologos. In a contest likely decided by 1 or 2 points Rubios ballot presence could be the key to Floridas electoral votes."
Meanwhile Hillary Clintons popularity continues to climb with 68 percent of likely Florida voters viewing her favorably and 26 seeing her in an unfavorable light. In January she also was the most popular of those tested with a 63 percent favorable and a 30 percent unfavorable rating.
Record of accuracy
In January 2008 the Suffolk University Political Research Center forecast that John McCain would win Floridas Republican presidential primary by 3 points; McCain won by 5 points. In late October 2008 Suffolk University polling predicted a 5-point general election win for Obama. He won by 3 points on Election Day. For the January 2012 GOP Primary Suffolk Universitys poll showed Romney leading Gingrich by 47 percent to 27 percent. Romney won 46 percent to 32 percent.
Issues
Additional data about voters views on issues -- including the Trayvon Martin case the economy and taxation will be released at 6 p.m. Thursday May 10.
Methodology
The statewide survey of 600 Florida registered voters was conducted May 6-8 2012 using live telephone interviews of landline and cell phone users. The margin of error is /-4 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence. Marginals and full cross-tabulation data will be posted at 6 p.m. Wednesday May 9 on the Suffolk University Political Research Center website. For more information contact David Paleologos at 781-290-9310
dpaleologos@suffolk.edu.
Suffolk University located in historic downtown Boston with an international campus in Madrid is a comprehensive global institution distinguished by the teaching and the intellectual contributions of its faculty. Suffolk University offers a wide range of undergraduate and graduate programs in more than 90 areas of study. Its mission is to provide access to excellence in higher education to students of all ages and backgrounds with strong emphasis on diversity.
