By Neil Stevens - RedState
This Gallup result is so large I had to see what it shows in the Swingometer. Ive had my ups & downs with Gallup but since theyve been solidly running registered voter surveys again the numbers have looked reasonable. Now theyre shocking us by showing the Republicans having their largest ever lead in the generic ballot survey.
It shows a larger edge than even todays
Rasmussens GOP 6 ... notwithstanding the alleged House Effect of the latter.
As always I boil it down to two party results. In 2008 we had a 56 D - 44 R split and this Gallup simplifies to a 45 D - 55 R split. So the swing is from a D12 to an R10 or a 22 point swing.
So right now that means Gallup of all polls using Registered Voters is projecting in the Swingometer a 60 seat Republican gain for a 238 R-197 D majority.
The last time an election took the Democrats that low was the election of 1946 saith Wikipedia.
Election night in 2004 took them to 202 for the second lowest.
Rasmussen by contrast shows only a 20 point swing a 57 seat Republican gain and a 235 R - 200 D majority still lower than an election since Truman has taken the House Democrats.
If I then take the mean of these two and double weight the Rasmussen Likely Voter poll I get R58 the new projection.
This Gallup result is so large I had to see what it shows in the Swingometer. Ive had my ups & downs with Gallup but since theyve been solidly running registered voter surveys again the numbers have looked reasonable. Now theyre shocking us by showing the Republicans having their largest ever lead in the generic ballot survey.
It shows a larger edge than even todays Rasmussens GOP 6 ... notwithstanding the alleged House Effect of the latter.
As always I boil it down to two party results. In 2008 we had a 56 D - 44 R split and this Gallup simplifies to a 45 D - 55 R split. So the swing is from a D12 to an R10 or a 22 point swing.
So right now that means Gallup of all polls using Registered Voters is projecting in the Swingometer a 60 seat Republican gain for a 238 R-197 D majority.
The last time an election took the Democrats that low was the election of 1946 saith Wikipedia.
