By Chris Cillizza The Washington Post
New data from Gallup on Monday suggests that Republican voters are significantly more enthusiastic about the 2010 midterm elections than in years past further evidence of an energized GOP base heading into the fall campaign. Nearly six in 10 Republicans described themselves as more enthusiastic about 2010 than previous midterm elections while 44 of Democrats said the same.
1. The previous enthusiasm high in Gallup data was in 2006 when 50 percent of Democrats described themselves as more enthusiastic than in past non-presidential election years (40 percent of Republicans said the same). Democrats picked up 30 seats and the House majority that year.
While
the Gallup numbers are gathered from four national polls conducted throughout the year the latest survey to be included -- from earlier this month -- paints an even rosier picture for the GOP than the overall data.
In the June poll 53 percent of Republicans said they were more enthusiastic about voting in this election than they had been in previous midterms while 39 percent said they were less enthusiastic; just 35 percent of Democrats called themselves more enthusiastic in2010 while 56 percent said they were less so.
The enthusiasm question has generally provided an accurate indication of which party will fare better in the midterm elections writes Gallups Jeffrey Jones. Since 1994 the party that has had a relative advantage on the enthusiasm measure has gained congressional seats in that midterm election year.
Put simply: Midterm elections tend to be low turnout affairs making the two party bases -- the most reliable of voters -- even more important. When one partys base is to borrow a phrase fired up and ready to go and the others isnt major change can happen. (See
President Obama winning 365 electoral votes including former GOP
strongholds like Indiana and North Carolina in 2008.)
There are still more than four months for Democratic voters to find their electoral mojo and entities like the White House and the Democratic National Committee will be devoting
significant time and resources to try and engineer that enthusiasm.
But at least today an enthusiasm gap favoring Republicans exists -- and thats good news for the GOP heading into the fall.
2. Weld County District Attorney
Ken Buck has surged to a 16-point lead over former Lt. Gov.
Jane Norton in the Colorado Republican Senate primary according to
a new Denver Post poll.
Buck takes 53 percent to 37 percent for Norton among likely Republican primary voters. Its the first poll showing Buck with a significant lead over Norton although surveys in recent weeks had shown him narrowing the gap over the establishment favorite.
Bucks rise
as we have written has been aided by several factors. He has won the backing of national conservatives including Sen.
Jim DeMint (R-S.C.) and Colorados
multi-step caucus process has allowed him to increase his profile among party activists over the past several months.
Norton by contrast has enjoyed the support of Colorado and national Republicans but has struggled to match the grassroots intensity for Buck.
Its not all anti-establishment fever in the Rocky Mountain State however. The Denver Post poll shows appointed Sen.
Michael Bennet leading former state House Speaker
Andrew Romanoff 53 percent to 36 percent among likely Democratic primary voters.
The Colorado primary is set for Aug. 10.
3. Utah Democratic Rep.
Jim Matheson is just over 50 percent but carries a 19-point lead into his primary race Tuesday against former schoolteacher Claudia Wright according to a
new poll in the Beehive State.
Matheson leads Wright 52 percent to 33 percent in the poll which was conducted by Dan Jones and Associates for the Deseret News.
Matheson has been spending heavily on the race after voting against the Democratic-led House health-care bill. Wright advanced to a primary against Matheson by taking 45 percent of the vote in last months state party convention. (To avoid a primary Matheson needed to win 60 percent at the convention.)
The poll should be of some comfort to Matheson but the low-turnout nature of the primary is cause for plenty of uncertainty. And the poll showed that more than half of primary voters thought Matheson isnt liberal enough -- potential trouble for the incumbent if only the activist base of the party votes on Tuesday.
Matheson is a heavy favorite but like many other incumbents in this topsy-turvy election cycle hell likely come away with a less-than-convincing win. If he somehow loses GOP nominee and former state Rep.
Morgan Philpot becomes the favorite to win in November.
4. Florida Gov.
Charlie Crist (I) has a double-digit edge over former state House Speaker
Marco Rubio (R) in the states Senate
race according to a
new Florida Chamber of Commerce poll.
Crist led Rubio 42 percent to 31 percent while former Rep.
Kendrick Meek (D) received just 14 percent of the vote - his worst showing in a poll since Crist switched parties.
Much of Crists post-switch political conversion has been
aimed at endearing himself to Democrats. Neutral observers now agree that his general election calculus is likely to rely on winning over Democrats not swayed by Meek. Crists ideal scenario would be for controversial billionaire businessman
Jeff Greene to win the primary -- polling shows him in a statistical dead heat with Meek -- as it would make it easier for the governor to convince Democrats to cross party lines.
In the governors race former health-care executive
Rick Scott is leading state Attorney General
Bill McCollum whom the Florida Chamber has endorsed by a 35 percent to 30 percent margin in the Republican primary.
5. The Republican National Committee took in nearly $6.5 million during May a haul thats roughly on par with the $6.6 million its Democratic counterpart took in during the same period.
The RNC also had more than $12.5 million cash-on-hand as of the end of May -- about $2 million less than the DNC.
On the House side the National Republican Congressional Committee raised $5.4 million in May trumping the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee by $300000. The DCCC still had a massive cash-on-hand edge however ending last month with $28.6 million in the bank while the NRCC showed $12 million.
May fundraising reports for the Senate were not available at press time.
The DNC has been vocal about
its plans to spend upwards of $50 million in 2010 -- money that primarily will be aimed at finding and turning out voters who came out to the polls for the first time in 2008 to cast a ballot for
Obama.
While the RNC has been less vocal about its plans heading into November the committee remains in relatively strong shape in relation to the DNC--despite being without any levers of power in Washington (and with the GOP committee having withstood a variety of chaos over the last year).
