By Edward Epstein CQ Staff
Published: 09-18-08
Republicans lost this week’s House energy votes but they came away smiling and confident they still have the Democrats on the run.
GOP congressional candidates plan to drive home a message during the final weeks of the campaign season that Democrats advocate a “no energy” energy policy.
“We just have to talk until we’re blue in the face’’ said Mike Pence R-Ind. who helped organize the GOP’s rump sessions on the House floor that hammered Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the Democrats during the August recess for not acting on legislation to expand offshore oil and gas exploration. “My strong feeling is that people will catch on.”
Democrats still confident they will gain House and Senate seats on Nov. 4 plan to counter by linking Republicans to big oil companies in voters’ minds. They dismiss the GOP’s emphasis on offshore drilling as a paltry response to higher energy prices.
Outside analysts said that while the energy issue holds some potential for Republicans it has lost some of its wallop as world oil prices have skidded from over $140 a barrel to under $100. Public attention has been drawn to other issues particularly the multibillion-dollar bailouts in the financial industry.
House Minority Leader John A. Boehner said the bill (HR 6899) that Pelosi D-Calif. brought to the floor this week was a response to the Republicans’ success this summer in tapping into public anger over energy prices. The Ohio Republican said Pelosi had to change her long-held opposition to additional offshore drilling when some Democrats’ re-election prospects worsened.
“Democrats proved once and for all that today’s debate was about nothing more than providing political cover for vulnerable Democrats on the eve of an election” Boehner said after the House passed the Democratic bill 236-189.
Public-opinion polls conducted during the summer showed that Boehner had some reason to feel he had found an issue to improve his party’s own previously gloomy election prospects.
Several surveys showed that the public wanted more offshore drilling. The ABC News/Washington Post poll conducted Sept. 5-8 found that 45 percent of those surveyed considered Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois a better choice to handle the energy issue compared to 43 percent who said they would prefer Republican Sen. John McCain of Arizona. In a similar poll in June Obama’s advantage on that issue had been 51 percent to 36 percent.
“I think gasoline prices are still a huge issue” said House Minority Whip Roy Blunt R-Mo. “When you get outside of Washington and New York and talk to people their focus is still on energy that they are paying lots more for gasoline and utilities.”
Spotlight Shifts Away From Energy
But the GOP’s hopes are illusory according to University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato. “The Republicans think energy is their silver bullet. But here’s the problem” Sabato said. “The public’s concerns about the economy are far broader and these other aspects are now taking center stage.”
Those economic concerns — suddenly exacerbated by the federal takeovers of the giant insurer American International Group and the Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac mortgage companies — are ominous for Republicans Sabato said. “The public senses that energy is part of one giant economic disaster and they always blame the incumbent president and his party.”
Democrats contend that the House-passed energy bill coupled with dropping oil prices gives them something good to talk to voters about.
“If prices are stable or go down it’ll be an issue for Democrats because they can say we responded to the public’s concerns” said Rep. Gene Green D-Texas an author of the party’s energy legislation. “But the bigger issue will be the broader economy.”
In a preview of the talking points Democrats may be taking home with them Pelosi scorned the Republicans’ energy politics as a continuation of the Bush administration’s affinity for the oil industry. “Republicans want to do their dance of Big Oil on the floor over and over again” she said.
In bringing up an energy bill written after protracted negotiations in her diverse caucus between pro-drilling members and anti-drilling environmentalists Pelosi seemed to be putting down a marker for the fall campaign and responding to GOP pressure that had changed the political equation on energy.
The Speaker and the Democrats endorsed a limited expansion of offshore drilling in response to President Bush’s decision to scrap the federal offshore moratorium as of Sept. 30.
The moratorium’s fate will ultimately be decided in the continuing spending resolution for fiscal 2009 that Congress is expected to clear before its pre-election adjournment
