Ridges Decision: To Run or Not to Run

By Greg Giroux CQ Staff width=65Tom Ridge already has an impressive resume: House member Pennsylvania governor the nations first Homeland Security secretary. Now the question is: will he enter what could be a brutal Senate race? Ridge who now heads his own consulting firm is weighing whether to re-enter political life and is expected to decide soon whether he will enter the GOP primary and if successful challenge Republican-turned-Democratic incumbent Arlen Specter for the seat. Certainly Ridge is a seasoned politician with demonstrated strength in statewide and in northwestern Pennsylvania contests. He served a dozen years in the House (1983-95) representing the Erie area then seven years as governor and three years as President Bushs first secretary of the Department of Homeland Security. He is better-known statewide than his prospective primary opponent former Rep. Pat Toomey who represented a Lehigh Valley district for six years prior to nearly defeating Specter in the 2004 Republican primary. He doesnt have to spend a lot of money on name recognition. Hes well-known and generally well-liked. I think he also can also raise a lot of money" said Dan Shea a political scientist at Allegheny College in Meadville Pa. not far from Ridges hometown of Erie. Recent surveys show Ridge polling more competitively than Toomey in hypothetical trial heats against Specter. A Quinnipiac Universitypoll on Monday had Specter leading Toomey by 20 percentage points and Ridge by just 3 percentage points. A Susquehanna Polling and Research survey also released Monday had Specter ahead of Toomey by 6 percentage points and trailing Ridge by 1 percentage point. Toomey rejects that he is unelectable in a statewide contest noting that he won three House elections in a politically competitive district. Still Ridge hasnt appeared on a ballot since 1998 when he trounced a weak Democratic challenger to win re-election as governor. He last ran in a competitive primary election in 1994 when he won a five-candidate gubernatorial primary with 35 percent of the vote. Pennsylvania has since swung sharply Democratic. Another factor that may influence Ridges decision is his Cabinet seat in the Bush administration. Bush left office with low approval ratings. His close relationship with the Bush administration will be a liability" Shea said. I think voters in Pennsylvania are anxious to look forward." Ridges biggest challenge though might be in convincing the mostly conservative Pennsylvania GOP electorate that they should side with him over the more conservative Toomey. In the House Ridge often aligned himself with the positions of organized labor: in 1988 for example he received an 86 rating from the AFL-CIO. His first six years of House service coincided with the presidency of Ronald Reagan and in all but one year Ridge voted against the administrations position more often than he supported it according to Congressional Quarterly vote studies. His pro-union stance included supporting increases in the federal minimum wage. In 1989 Ridge angered some conservatives when he backed a Democratic alternative to a less generous minimum wage bill promoted by President George Bush. If it doesnt undercut Bush I dont know how else to read it" Rep. Bill Goodling the chief sponsor of the Bush measure said of Ridges action at the time. In 1994 the year Ridge ran for governor he voted for a Clinton administration-backed ban on certain semiautomatic weapons that opponents call assault weapons." Ridge had opposed the ban three years earlier. When Toomey bucked GOP orthodoxy he would do so from the right such as in criticizing the Bush administration or the Republican-run Congress for failing to curb federal spending. Toomey sided much less frequently than Ridge with labor unions; Toomeys lifetime rating from the AFL-CIO was 7 percent. Just before Barack Obama was elected Toomey wrote in National Review that Obama was likely to continue the disaster" of President Franklin D. Roosevelts administration which imposed minimum wage laws and other regulations that Toomey said stifled business growth. Ridge and Toomey also have differences in their personal backgrounds. Ridge 63 comes from working-class Democratic roots in Erie and is an Army veteran of the Vietnam War. Toomey who is 16 years Ridges junior was a restaurateur and investment banker prior to his election to the House in 1998.
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