Its no secret that Mitt Romney is losing big with minorities. The largest of these groups are heavily Democratic and as a member of a minority himself President Obama is particularly good at tapping into this demographic.
But in this time of economic turmoil and doubt about the countrys future does Romney have a real shot at cutting into Obamas lead among minorities? The Romney team thinks so and is pointing to last months rising Hispanic and black unemployment figures to make the case that the incumbent deserves to be thrown out.
But thats going to be a much tougher sell than Romney thinks.
Thats because minorities are more pleased with Obamas job performance more sanguine about the countrys future more likely to approve of the job Congress is doing and more positive about the past four years than are whites. And that makes minorities much less likely to abandon the incumbent.
Obamas approval rating remains extraordinarily high among non-whites. According to a recent Fox News poll 70 percent of minorities approved of the job he was doing while just 23 percent disapproved. Contrast that with the 42 percent of whites who approved of the presidents performance and you can clearly see that minorities take a vastly different view of the past four years.
That disparity shows up relentlessly: Fifty percent of minorities think the Obama administration has succeeded at creating new jobs while just 26 percent of whites say the same. Fifty-four percent of minorities think the president has improved healthcare while only 30 percent of whites agree. And 64 percent of minorities think Obama has improved Americas image and standing in the world while only 42 percent of whites concur.
All that leads to the unmistakable conclusion that minorities and whites seem to be viewing the same set of conditions differently. In fact only 31 percent of minorities think the United States is in a recession while 45 percent of whites think the same this despite the fact that black and Hispanic unemployment rates are significantly higher than the white unemployment rate.
In short most minorities think Obama has made things better while most whites think hes failed.
But theres another phenomenon at work favoring Obama one that might be indicative of something deeper than personal or partisan affiliation. Minorities seem to be more confident about the future and more optimistic that the government can produce a bright one.
For example minorities are 14 percent more likely than whites to approve of the job Congress is doing. The Senate of course is under Democratic control so its possible that partisan affiliation might explain stronger support but that ignores the fact that the House is Republican.
Breaking it down a bit further a recent NBC poll of one large minority Latino voters confirms this more positive view of government. Forty percent of Latinos said they had a great deal" or quite a bit" of confidence in the federal government while only 27 percent said they had very little" or none at all." That faith in government far exceeded the groups faith in corporations the financial industry and even religious leaders and organizations.
And theres one more good bit of news for the incumbent. In the Fox News poll minorities were 10 percent more likely than whites to say the country has better days ahead and 7 percent more unlikely to despair about its future. Thats a 17 percent gap on a politically neutral question about the countrys direction.
All of this makes Romneys task extraordinarily difficult. Not only does he have to overcome the usual partisan gap with minorities (according to the Fox News poll he loses by 46 percent in a head-to-head with Obama) but he also has to somehow change their perceptions of the past four years and where the country is moving.
He has to get the majority who approve of Obamas job performance to look less kindly on it and he has to make the case that the last four years have been economically hard on minorities. Most importantly he has to do all this before even making the case that he can do better.
So far his outreach to minority groups has been minimal at best but last week he started outlining the first part of the argument that Obamas economy hasnt been kind to Hispanics. He launched a Spanish-language Web video last week Deprimente" or Depressing" highlighting high Hispanic unemployment and shortly thereafter integrated the message into a stump speech in Hispanic-heavy Forth Worth Texas.
But hes yet to put serious dollars behind the effort and doesnt seem aware that time is running out fast.
Thats because a successful pitch has to be a multipart effort that begins with stoking minority discontent turning that discontent into skepticism about Obama developing a message that makes minorities open to an alternative presenting himself as an attractive alternative and finally sealing the deal.
Five months isnt a lot of time to get through all that.
Heinze the founder of GOP12.com is a member of staff at The Hill. Find his column GOP Presidential Primary on thehill.com
Its no secret that Mitt Romney is losing big with minorities. The largest of these groups are heavily Democratic and as a member of a minority himself President Obama is particularly good at tapping into this demographic.
But in this time of economic turmoil and doubt about the countrys future does Romney have a real shot at cutting into Obamas lead among minorities? The Romney team thinks so and is pointing to last months rising Hispanic and black unemployment figures to make the case that the incumbent deserves to be thrown out.
But thats going to be a much tougher sell than Romney thinks.
Thats because minorities are more pleased with Obamas job performance more sanguine about the countrys future more likely to approve of the job Congress is doing and more positive about the past four years than are whites. And that makes minorities much less likely to abandon the incumbent.
Obamas approval rating remains extraordinarily high among non-whites. According to a recent Fox News poll 70 percent of minorities approved of the job he was doing while just 23 percent disapproved. Contrast that with the 42 percent of whites who approved of the presidents performance and you can clearly see that minorities take a vastly different view of the past four years.
That disparity shows up relentlessly: Fifty percent of minorities think the Obama administration has succeeded at creating new jobs while just 26 percent of whites say the same. Fifty-four percent of minorities think the president has improved healthcare while only 30 percent of whites agree. And 64 percent of minorities think Obama has improved Americas image and standing in the world while only 42 percent of whites concur.
All that leads to the unmistakable conclusion that minorities and whites seem to be viewing the same set of conditions differently. In fact only 31 percent of minorities think the United States is in a recession while 45 percent of whites think the same this despite the fact that black and Hispanic unemployment rates are significantly higher than the white unemployment rate.
In short most minorities think Obama has made things better while most whites think hes failed.
But theres another phenomenon at work favoring Obama one that might be indicative of something deeper than personal or partisan affiliation. Minorities seem to be more confident about the future and more optimistic that the government can produce a bright one.
For example minorities are 14 percent more likely than whites to approve of the job Congress is doing. The Senate of course is under Democratic control so its possible that partisan affiliation might explain stronger support but that ignores the fact that the House is Republican.
Breaking it down a bit further a recent NBC poll of one large minority Latino voters confirms this more positive view of government. Forty percent of Latinos said they had a great deal" or quite a bit" of confidence in the federal government while only 27 percent said they had very little" or none at all." That faith in government far exceeded the groups faith in corporations the financial industry and even religious leaders and organizations.
And theres one more good bit of news for the incumbent. In the Fox News poll minorities were 10 percent more likely than whites to say the country has better days ahead and 7 percent more unlikely to despair about its future. Thats a 17 percent gap on a politically neutral question about the countrys direction.
All of this makes Romneys task extraordinarily difficult. Not only does he have to overcome the usual partisan gap with minorities (according to the Fox News poll he loses by 46 percent in a head-to-head with Obama) but he also has to somehow change their perceptions of the past four years and where the country is moving.
He has to get the majority who approve of Obamas job performance to look less kindly on it and he has to make the case that the last four years have been economically hard on minorities. Most importantly he has to do all this before even making the case that he can do better.
So far his outreach to minority groups has been minimal at best but last week he started outlining the first part of the argument that Obamas economy hasnt been kind to Hispanics. He launched a Spanish-language Web video last week Deprimente" or Depressing" highlighting high Hispanic unemployment and shortly thereafter integrated the message into a stump speech in Hispanic-heavy Forth Worth Texas.
But hes yet to put serious dollars behind the effort and doesnt seem aware that time is running out fast.
Thats because a successful pitch has to be a multipart effort that begins with stoking minority discontent turning that discontent into skepticism about Obama developing a message that makes minorities open to an alternative presenting himself as an attractive alternative and finally sealing the deal.
Five months isnt a lot of time to get through all that.
Heinze the founder of GOP12.com is a member of staff at The Hill. Find his column GOP Presidential Primary on thehill.com
