Dangerous scenario for incumbent as 47 is magic number
Texas Insider Report: WASHINGTON D.C. Mitt Romney currently leads President Obama
52 to 45 among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. We now
slide into the final week of the 2012 Presidential election and political thinkers of every stripe are watching
polling data like hawks.
The race is tied at 49 among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten.
However Romney leads 51 to 45 among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day Nov. 6th.
Moreover Romneys 52 to 45 lead over Obama among voters who say they have already cast their ballots is comparable to Romneys 51 to 46 lead among all likely voters in Gallups Oct. 22-28 tracking polling.
With the most recent round of Gallup polling one trend has endured; following the 1st Presidential
debate it became clear the race would come down to battleground states. Conventional wisdom suggests that Ohio is
the most important of these states.
Reuters explains however that there are quite a few paths to victory without necessarily winning Ohio:
Both candidates can construct multiple winning scenarios with or without Ohio. And its now possible that the tipping point could emerge from another battleground such as Colorado where Obama and Romney are deadlocked in the polls.
Obama still has a slight electoral map advantage fueled by his slim lead in Ohio but Romney has steadily closed the gap or moved slightly ahead in some other battleground states.
Eight states remain relative toss-ups.
According to Gallup Mitt Romney
currently holds the popular vote 51 to Obamas 46. This is a dangerous scenario for the incumbent as 47 is a magic number given the tendency for undecided
voters to swing their support for the challenger.
At the same time there is also the possibility of a 269-269 electoral tie which would send the decision to the Republican-controlled House of Representatives according to the Reuters article.
And then theres Sandy. It is uncertain what effect hurricane Sandy will have on the election; however the Obama campaign has emphasized the necessity of early voting. Because Sandy is pounding territory that Obama is likely to hold it may delay or stop the effort to drive in early votes.
Between halting the Obama campaigns efforts for a few days and placing a superstorm between voters and the booths Sandy may cause a sizable problem for the incumbent.
Nevertheless the one sin both candidates are desperate not to commit is projecting the idea of overconfidence. Whether or not one candidate has a considerable lead over the other is irrelevant. You wont hear about it until November 7th.
