By Karl Rove
A 3-2-1 strategy can get him to the magic 270 electoral votes.
On Tuesday Gallups seven-day tracking poll had Barack Obama and Mitt Romney tied at 46. With the incumbent stuck below 50 on the ballot and Mr. Romneys favorability rising the Republican challenger has a good shot at winning.
To take the White House Mr. Romney needs 270 votes in the Electoral College. A 3-2-1 strategy will get him there.
If Mr. Romney carries the states John McCain won in 2008 and regains Nebraskas second district (the state awards three of its five electoral votes by congressional district the other two to the statewide winner) the Electoral College will be 14 votes closer than the 365-to-173 total in 2008. Thats because the 2010 Census cost blue states such as Massachusetts New York and Illinois congressional seatsand electoral voteswhile red states such as South Carolina Georgia and Texas gained seats.
None of Mr. McCains states appear in real jeopardy for the GOP this year.
After this initial hurdle Mr. Romneys victory road starts with 3as in Indiana North Carolina and Virginia a trio of historically Republican states. In 2008 Mr. Obama won by narrow margins in Indiana (barely 1) and North Carolina (0.32).
Today even Team Obama doesnt pretend Indiana is in play. North Carolina also appears to be sliding away from the president: A May 14 Rasmussen poll of likely voters showed 51 for Romney 43 for Obama. Virginia on the other hand will likely remain a battleground through Election Day. Mr. Obama carried it by more than six points and remains ahead by a little more than three points according to the RealClearPolitics average of state polls.
Nevertheless if Mr. Romney can put these states combined 39 electoral votes back into the GOP column the Electoral College vote would be 319 for Mr. Obama 219 for Mr. Romney.
Next up is 2as in Florida and Ohio. They flipped from Republican in 2004 to Democratic in 2008. Both were closea 2.8 margin for Mr. Obama in the former and 4.6 in the latter.
The presidents commanding lead in Florida among Jews has been sagging his lead among Latinos has sharply narrowed and seniors are restless. In Ohio he has definite problems with white working-class voters and affluent suburban independents. The race is extremely close in the Buckeye Statea May 7 Quinnipiac poll of registered voters has Mr. Romney at 44 Mr. Obama at 45while a May 21 Quinnipiac poll of registered voters in the Sunshine State has Mr. Romney up 47 to 41.
These two states have a combined 47 electoral votes. If Mr. Romney wins them the Electoral College would stand at 272 for Mr. Obama 266 for Mr. Romney.
Which brings us to 1. Mr. Romney then needs one more stateany stateand the White House is his.
There are many paths open to him. One is the Neighborhood route. If the Boston resident and former Massachusetts governor captures next-door New Hampshire its four electoral votes would take him to the magical 270 and the Oval Office.
Theres also the Great Lakes route through Michigan (16 electoral votes) Pennsylvania (20) and Wisconsin (10). Of these Michigan may be the toughest. But Mr. Obamas antipathy toward coal added to problems with working-class whites and suburban independents puts Pennsylvania in play. A May 21 Rasmussen poll of likely voters had the president ahead by six percentage points.
And if Gov. Scott Walker survives his June 5 recall by a healthy margin Wisconsin could also be up for grabsas it was in 2000 and 2004 when Democrats carried it by extremely narrow margins. A May 12 Marquette University Law School poll of likely voters shows the presidential race in Wisconsin tied at 46.
The Western route is Colorado (nine electoral votes) Nevada (six) or New Mexico (five). An April 23 Purple Strategies Poll of likely voters has the race tied in Colorado at 47.
With the nations highest unemployment rate (11.7) Nevadans remember Mr. Obamas notorious bashing of Las Vegas in 2010: When times are tough you tighten your belts. . . . You dont blow a bunch of cash in Vegas . . . Meanwhile New Mexico has a popular Republican Latina governor Susana Martinez.
Then theres the Plains route. Iowa (six electoral votes) launched Mr. Obama in 2008 but National Journals Hotline reports Team Obama is targeting it for special attention with TV ads evidence of its worry.
Mr. Obama long ago lost his chance to duplicate his 2008 performance. A record of failure will do that. Hes now forced to fight for states he easily won in 2008. The odds now narrowly favor a Romney win.
