Texas Insider Report: WASHINGTON D.C. Im not sure we have ever seen a candidate quite like Mitt Romney. Think about it. Romney who stresses his opposition to abortion talks tough on immigration and rules out a tax increase even to help cut the deficit continues to get the support of pragmatic conservatives.
For years ever since he started running against Sen. John McCain for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination Romney has tried to position himself to the right. In fact four years ago he succeeded in positioning himself as one of two conservative alternatives (the other being former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee) to the Arizona Senator.
The exit poll from the Florida GOP primary on Jan. 29 2008 when McCain narrowly beat Romney 36to 31 and Huckabee came in a weak fourth showed Romney rallying Republican conservatives who could not accept McCain.
In that contest
- Romney won primary voters who thought abortion should be illegal while McCain won those who thought it should be legal.
- Romney won weekly church attendees while McCain won those who went occasionally or never.
- Romney won those satisfied with or enthusiastic about President George W. Bush while McCain won those dissatisfied or angry.
- But dont stop there.
- Romney won voters who wanted to deport illegal immigrants while McCain won those who favored temporary worker status or even a path to citizenship.
- Romney won conservatives while McCain won moderates and liberals. Romney and Huckabee tied to win white evangelicals while McCain won nonevangelicals.
This cycle Romney has run right again to establish his conservative credentials but he has not been successful. Instead each and every week he has performed best among the same voters who chose McCain over him four years ago and he has done least well among those demographic groups that supported him in 2008.
Romneys great problem in the GOP race as pretty much everyone has already observed is that conservatives dont really believe that he is one of them.
Despite all his conservative rhetoric on taxes government spending traditional marriage immigration abortion and health care conservatives arent buying it. They believe that Romney is simply pandering to
them because he knows that is what he needs to do to lock up the Republican nomination.
Whether it is his multiple positions over the years on abortion his support for an individual mandate in Massachusetts his Mormon faith or simply his profile as a wealthy impeccably dressed businessman the most conservative Republican voters (many of whom are evangelicals) dont believe that he is a passionate conservative who is ready to take on the political establishment.
Whats interesting about Romney and his supporters is that despite his conservative rhetoric moderates and country club conservatives continue to support his candidacy.
Think about it. Romney continues to get the support of pragmatic conservatives who rejected former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorums ideological rigidity thought Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.) was too conservative and viewed Texas Gov. Rick Perry as a bomb thrower.
Clearly establishment Republicans also dont believe Romney when he talks about his views and his agenda. If they did they probably would feel about him the same way they feel about Santorum or Bachmann.
Romneys great asset is that these voters figure he is merely pandering to evangelicals and the most conservative element of the GOP when he talks about cultural issues immigration and taxes.
The bottom line of course is that nobody not his critics and not his allies really believes Mitt Romney.
The Washington Posts Dan Balz pointed out to me recently that this makes Romney something like the opposite of what Barack Obama was in 2008.
Four years ago Obama who had only a thin legislative record and was known to have voted present" on a number of important votes in the Illinois Legislature was so ill-formed in the minds of voters that many could
project their own hopes and dreams onto him giving him considerable appeal among a wide range of voters.
People liked Obama so they figured out a way to find themselves in agreement with him even if they had no reason to believe that he really held the views they ascribed to him.
The question is whether in November Romney may be in a similar position as Obama was.
Is Romney such a mass of contradictions that voters can look at him and project their positions on him allowing them to support him? Or is his credibility so shot that too many voters will simply conclude that they cant trust him making it impossible for them to support him?
