Whats new price of running for President?
By Karl Rove
According to
GOP TV buyers a week of television just enough for an average viewer
to see an ad about 10 times in the first four Republican Primary states
of Iowa New Hampshire South Carolina & Nevada would cost roughly $4 million. Its reasonable to expect most campaigns would look for
at least four weeks of TV making the cost to run ads
in those states right around $16 million.
While juggling questions of a candidates performance message and organization every Republican presidential strategist also spends lots of time thinking about money. First comes this question: How many dollars must a candidate have to be competitive in the opening round of 2016 contests?
Its tough to settle on a number for the buy-in now. Few states have passed laws setting their primary or caucus date so it may be months until the calendar is locked in.
Its also difficult to decide how much of each kind of activity is necessary. For example:
-
How much television advertising should be run?
- How much should be spent on the Internet?
- How much mail is needed?
- And how many phone banks?
One way to get a rough sense of the likely buy-in to the GOP race is to examine the cost of running four weeks of television in each of the sanctioned contests in February 2016 Iowa New Hampshire South Carolina and Nevada. These first four states collectively have 133 delegates or only 5.4 of the 2471 delegates likely to be at the convention.
Of course TV is not the only way campaigns would convey messages.
In addition the prices TV stations are quoting are for third-party groups like Super PACs. The law guarantees candidates the lowest rate which stations are loath to estimate now.
But even if candidates paid less for TV the additional costs for Internet activity mail phones and radio would mean candidates could still spend close to $20 million to mount strong campaigns in all the February contests.
According to GOP strategists who are monitoring the calendar another 11 states are likely to vote March 1:
- Alabama
- Arkansas
- Georgia
- Idaho
- Massachusetts
- Mississippi
- Oklahoma
- Tennessee
- Texas
- Vermont and
- Virginia with Hawaii Michigan and Ohio following on March 8.
There are 744 delegates at stake in the first half of March or 24.3 of the conventions total.
The cost for a week of TV in the March 1 states is nearly $11 million.
For states voting a week later it is over $3 million.
It isnt wise (or even doable) for every campaign to blanket every state with television ads. For example
- The high cost of Boston television means it is three times as expensive per delegate to advertise in Massachusetts which has 42 delegates and costs $1.3 million a week
- as it is in Oklahoma which has 43 delegates and costs just $406000 for one week)
But even if a campaign trims spending in some areas the early March contests are likely to add another $20 million to $30 million for three to four weeks of TV and
other campaign activity.
This poses problems for campaigns that can raise enough money for a February buy-in but cannot replenish their coffers for March unless they win dramatic early upsets that give them momentum create a bump in the polls and cause money to flood in from donors big and small. Even then because every state that votes before March 15 must award its delegates proportionally no one candidate receives enough delegates to pull away from the pack by mid-March.
Then comes the Ides of March with winner-take-all primaries likely in Florida Illinois and Missouri.
These three contests combined have almost twice as many delegates 220 as all the February states.
A week of television in all three will cost some $4.73 million making the tab $10 million or more to be competitive in those states.
Before the first voters are rallied to the polls theres the cost of getting to next year. In 2015 every campaign will spend money to move their candidate around open headquarters raise money build state organizations recruit volunteers identify
voters and prepare policy advice among other things. This can suck up lots of cash.
For example Mitt Romney spent $36.4 million of the $56.3 million he raised in 2011 leaving $20 million in the bank on Jan. 1 2012. Former speaker Newt Gingrich spent $10.5 million of the $12.6 million he raised in 2011 leaving him with just $2.1 million on New Years 2012.
So campaigns now face complicated decisions. If they spend too much this year and have little left over for next years battles they are dead. Which is why every campaign is grappling with spending priorities and how to squirrel away cash.
They are also thinking about a relatively new and vital element Super PACs a subject I will address next week.
Karl Rove served as Sr. Advisor to President George W. Bush from 2000-2007 and as Deputy Chief of Staff from 2004-2007. He writes weekly for The Wall Street Journal is a Newsweek columnist and is the author of Courage & Consequence.
