By Aman Batheja and Jay Root - New York Times
Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst stood at a lectern at the Intercontinental Hotel in Houston after Tuesday nights primary and spoke to supporters as if he had scored a victory.
Though he had indeed drawn more votes than his eight opponents in the Republican primary for
United States Senate Mr. Dewhurst fell more than 70000 votes short of what he needed to avoid a runoff. While speaking like a winner he made reference to the groups he had been saying for weeks were working to force him to this less-than-ideal outcome.
You know this evening weve seen a clear message from the voters to the Washington insiders special interests: Dont mess with Texas" Mr. Dewhurst said.
He was referring to a coalition of groups including the Washington-based
Club for Growth that had poured millions of dollars into the campaign of Ted Cruz the former Texas solicitor general who will face Mr. Dewhurst in a runoff on July 31.
In the Club for Growths quest to move the
Republican Party to the right Mr. Dewhurst has become its latest target and Mr. Cruz has become its rallying cry.
The Club for Growth which pushes for lower taxes and reduced government spending was not shy this week about taking credit for Mr. Cruzs strong finish. The group which played a pivotal role in the defeat of the longtime Senate incumbents Richard Lugar of Indiana in May and Bob Bennett of Utah in 2010 poured $2.5 million into the Texas race and has set a goal of raising an additional $5 million to help Mr. Cruz in the runoff.
I think youre seeing a very similar narrative in Texas that you saw in Indiana where you have an established moderate politician who has been in office for a very long time challenged by a principled free-market conservative" said Barney Keller communications director at the Club for Growth. Its kind of a microcosm of a larger debate that is playing out."
Jim Henson director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin said the similarities to Indiana and Nebraska where a little-known candidate defeated two established Republican contenders for Senate are largely superficial. The image of Mr. Dewhurst as a moderate who has been in office far too long is not nearly as ingrained as it was with Mr. Lugar who was first elected to the United States Senate in 1976.
Its a campaign frame more than it is a real trend" Mr. Henson said. The more you drill down the less it is the same."
Mr. Dewhurst drew 45 percent of the vote to Mr. Cruzs 34 percent. Former State Representative Paul Sadler and Grady Yarbrough a retired educator are in a runoff for the Democratic nomination.
When Mr. Cruz spoke to his supporters on Tuesday night he challenged Mr. Dewhurst to five debates before the runoff.
And if he wants to make the case to the people of Texas that he thinks Im an amnesty-supporting China-loving pinko liberal then I encourage him to do so in person" Mr. Cruz said referring to some of Mr. Dewhursts campaign ads.
Mr. Dewhurst lent his campaign more than $15 million before the primary and can tap his personal wealth to help finance his runoff effort if needed.
On top of that two in-state
super PACs" invested in advertisements to boost Mr. Dewhurst. Rob Johnson a former Dewhurst chief of staff who is now in charge of the Texas Conservatives Fund said he would continue to raise money and air advertisements to make sure that voters know Ted Cruz is a conservative phony." Mr. Johnson raised a little less than $3 million for the primary and predicted there would be plenty of paid messaging over the next two months.
I dont think money will be an issue for either side" he said. Cruz has the D.C. insiders and Im sure theyll pony up D.C. money for him again."
For the two candidates the runoff constitutes a lot of unknowns politically speaking. Texas does not normally hold elections in the middle of the summer and only recently began requiring that they be held a full two months after a primary.
When Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison a Republican announced in January 2011 that she would not seek a fourth term Mr. Dewhurst was considered a formidable contender if he chose to run.
But many conservative activists are not enthusiastic about Mr. Dewhursts candidacy. Erick Erickson editor of
RedState.com dismissed the states longstanding lieutenant governor as
DewCrist" a reference to former Gov. Charlie Crist of Florida who ran for United States Senate in 2010. The Club for Growth and other activists deemed Mr. Crist insufficiently conservative and they ultimately backed Marco Rubio who won the seat.
Various groups went on the hunt for a Texas Rubio a conservative who could compete against a front-runner with name recognition and millions in personal wealth at his disposal. Various factions coalesced behind Mr. Cruz a rising political star based on his work defending Texas in cases before the United States Supreme Court.
By the time Mr. Dewhurst entered the race in July Mr. Cruz already had endorsements from several groups that were gearing up to wage battle against Mr. Dewhurst.
On the campaign trial Mr. Dewhurst has offered that his record is the same as that of Gov. Rick Perry who drew strong interest for his conservative record when he began his presidential campaign last year.
Many of those same conservative activists who initially supported Mr. Perrys White House bid have opted for Mr. Cruz
criticizing Mr. Dewhurst for caving during tough legislative battles.
Cathie Adams a former Republican Party of Texas chairwoman is shown in
a recent ad for Mr. Cruzs campaign saying Dewhurst appoints liberal Democrats." Sixteen months earlier Ms. Adams had vouched for Mr. Dewhurst telling The Associated Press he had stayed true to his conservative ideals" and that complaints about his record were unfounded."
Ms. Adams said her earlier comments were meant as praise of the states Republican leadership especially Mr. Perry. She said that Mr. Dewhursts role in their success is debatable. You can say the speaker is supposed to be the driver of the House and the lieutenant governor in the Senate" she said but I think the person driving policy in Texas since Governor Perry has been governor is Governor Perry."
Tom Jensen director of Public Policy Polling which regularly surveys voters before state primaries said Mr. Dewhurst remains well-liked among Republicans but Mr. Cruzs supporters are more excited.
In the end Mr. Dewhursts financial prowess might win the day he said. Recent statewide Republican primary upsets have more often occurred in smaller states where reaching voters costs less.
Those were all cases in which a sort of anti-establishment candidate was able to win because their supporters were so much more passionate about them than the front-runner" Mr. Jensen said. I think thats harder to replicate in a state like Texas thats so big."
