Published: 08-24-07

“This report confirms that the counter-insurgency strategy developed by General Petraeus is working. Our troops are taking the fight to al-Qaeda in Iraq and they are winning.

“This report also makes clear that abandoning this counter-insurgency plan and withdrawing prematurely will lead to increased violence and a further destabilization of the Iraqi government. The consequences of this would be a failed state and a safe haven for terrorists who are seeking to attack our nation and our allies.
“Iraq is the central front in the war on terror and while we all want to bring our troops home as soon as possible the NIE makes clear that now is not the time to abandon the fight. Our troops are winning. They deserve and demand the support of our government and their fellow citizens.”
Following are excerpts from some key judgments of the National Intelligence Estimate:
• “There have been measurable but uneven improvements in Iraq’s security situation since our last National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq in January 2007. The steep escalation of rates of violence has been checked for now and overall attack levels across Iraq have fallen during seven of the last nine weeks. Coalition forces working with Iraqi forces tribal elements and some Sunni insurgents have reduced al-Qa’ida in Iraq’s (AQI) capabilities restricted its freedom of movement and denied it grassroots support in some areas.”
• “Perceptions that the Coalition is withdrawing probably will encourage factions anticipating a power vacuum to seek local security solutions that could intensify sectarian violence and intra-sectarian competition. At the same time fearing a Coalition withdrawal some tribal elements and Sunni groups probably will continue to seek accommodation with the Coalition to strengthen themselves for a post-Coalition security environment.”
• “Iraqi Security Forces involved in combined operations with Coalition forces have performed adequately and some units have demonstrated increasing professional competence.”
• “We assess that changing the mission of Coalition forces from a primarily counterinsurgency and stabilization role to a primary combat support role for Iraqi forces and counterterrorist operations to prevent AQI from establishing a safe haven would erode security gains achieved thus far.”