A thunderclap over North Dakota: What Dorgans retirement & other exits mean for Democrats
A politically shrewd Senate Democratic staff member chatting about the future of health-care negotiations stopped in midsentence late Tuesday afternoon as news flashed across his computer screen. My God he said. Byron Dorgan is retiring.
It was a thunderclap moment in the politics of 2010 an unfortunate twist for Democrats already looking at a difficult election year. Dorgan a veteran of three decades in Washington suddenly turned his North Dakota Senate seat from one that Democrats had a reasonable chance of holding into a likely pickup for the Republicans.
Worse from the Democrats viewpoint Dorgans move fed exactly the story line that Republicans have been pushing hard: Combined with the retirements of Gov. Bill Ritter in Colorado and of a number of incumbent House Democrats Dorgans decision looked to be part of a mass flight of vulnerable members of President Obamas party from a grim political battlefield.
But the retirement stories didnt stop there and the paradox is that by the time all the exiting was over on Wednesday Democrats had reason if not to smile then at least to give a sigh or two of relief.
The Dorgan news was quickly followed by Sen. Chris Dodds announcement that he would not seek reelection in Connecticut. His partys operatives were torn in their responses.
Dodd is as well-liked in Washington political circles as he has become unpopular in his home state and in theory at least the professionals wanted to put politics aside and mourn the end of his career. (The guy deserves some respect lamented one of the partys top campaign warriors. Do we have to do politics 24 hours a day? And Im paid to do politics 24 hours a day.)
In practice they were grateful Dodd withdrew. A seat once so promising for Republicans now seems safe for Democrats again as Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal a longtime electoral winner becomes the favorite.
Ritters retirement was equally a blessing for Democrats. They have strong potential candidates to replace him (including Denvers popular Mayor John Hickenlooper and possibly Interior Secretary and former senator Ken Salazar). And Ritters move might save Sen. Michael Bennet from a Democratic primary -- if his current challenger former Colorado House speaker Andrew Romanoff runs for governor instead.
Such calculations and counter-calculations underscore how truly complicated the political map for this years battle for the Senate has become.
Not even the most optimistic Democrats think their party can escape losing seats. But with so many states now unexpectedly in play surprise Democratic victories could offset some Republican gains. On the other side retirements -- not to mention the moves of a certain president and vice president out of the Senate -- have opened terrain for the Republicans that would normally be blocked.
All by themselves Obamas victory and his appointments to his administration threaten four previously solid Democratic seats: Obamas old Illinois seat Vice President Joe Bidens in Delaware Salazars in Colorado and Secretary of State Hillary Clintons in New York.
Republicans can reel off four other states where they have a better-than-decent shot at Democratic seats: the newly promising North Dakota plus Arkansas Nevada and Pennsylvania. And if the country is really gloomy on Nov. 2 the GOP thinks it has a shot at California.
Even this scenario would leave Republicans just short of a Senate majority and Democrats are betting that they will easily hold New York and California while hanging on to Nevada -- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has relatively unknown opponents and will have a huge bank account -- and Pennsylvania. Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln confronts the most difficult terrain of any Democrat this year but she may profit from Republican divisions.
Then there are the Democrats wild cards: five Republican seats where some combination of strong Democratic candidates divisive Republican primaries or potentially weak GOP nominees offers a chance to offset losses.
In rough descending order of possibility these include Missouri New Hampshire Ohio North Carolina and Kentucky. Democrats cant bank on any of them but just a win or two would buy their majority protection.
Its thus very hard to see how the Republicans can take over the Senate. But with North Dakota changing colors the Democrats map is not a happy one. If managing a barely filibuster-proof majority has been hell for the partys leaders this now seems to be one burden they wont have to worry about next year.
A thunderclap over North Dakota: What Dorgans retirement & other exits mean for Democrats
A politically shrewd Senate Democratic staff member chatting about the future of health-care negotiations stopped in midsentence late Tuesday afternoon as news flashed across his computer screen. My God he said. Byron Dorgan is retiring.
It was a thunderclap moment in the politics of 2010 an unfortunate twist for Democrats already looking at a difficult election year. Dorgan a veteran of three decades in Washington suddenly turned his North Dakota Senate seat from one that Democrats had a reasonable chance of holding into a likely pickup for the Republicans.
Worse from the Democrats viewpoint Dorgans move fed exactly the story line that Republicans have been pushing hard: Combined with the retirements of Gov. Bill Ritter in Colorado and of a number of incumbent House Democrats Dorgans decision looked to be part of a mass flight of vulnerable members of President Obamas party from a grim political battlefield.
But the retirement stories didnt stop there and the paradox is that by the time all the exiting was over on Wednesday Democrats had reason if not to smile then at least to give a sigh or two of relief.
The Dorgan news was quickly followed by Sen. Chris Dodds announcement that he would not seek reelection in Connecticut. His partys operatives were torn in their responses.
Dodd is as well-liked in Washington political circles as he has become unpopular in his home state and in theory at least the professionals wanted to put politics aside and mourn the end of his career. (The guy deserves some respect lamented one of the partys top campaign warriors. Do we have to do politics 24 hours a day? And Im paid to do politics 24 hours a day.)
In practice they were grateful Dodd withdrew. A seat once so promising for Republicans now seems safe for Democrats again as Connecticut Attorney General Richard Blumenthal a longtime electoral winner becomes the favorite.
Ritters retirement was equally a blessing for Democrats. They have strong potential candidates to replace him (including Denvers popular Mayor John Hickenlooper and possibly Interior Secretary and former senator Ken Salazar). And Ritters move might save Sen. Michael Bennet from a Democratic primary -- if his current challenger former Colorado House speaker Andrew Romanoff runs for governor instead.
Such calculations and counter-calculations underscore how truly complicated the political map for this years battle for the Senate has become.
Not even the most optimistic Democrats think their party can escape losing seats. But with so many states now unexpectedly in play surprise Democratic victories could offset some Republican gains. On the other side retirements -- not to mention the moves of a certain president and vice president out of the Senate -- have opened terrain for the Republicans that would normally be blocked.
All by themselves Obamas victory and his appointments to his administration threaten four previously solid Democratic seats: Obamas old Illinois seat Vice President Joe Bidens in Delaware Salazars in Colorado and Secretary of State Hillary Clintons in New York.
Republicans can reel off four other states where they have a better-than-decent shot at Democratic seats: the newly promising North Dakota plus Arkansas Nevada and Pennsylvania. And if the country is really gloomy on Nov. 2 the GOP thinks it has a shot at California.
Even this scenario would leave Republicans just short of a Senate majority and Democrats are betting that they will easily hold New York and California while hanging on to Nevada -- Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid has relatively unknown opponents and will have a huge bank account -- and Pennsylvania. Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln confronts the most difficult terrain of any Democrat this year but she may profit from Republican divisions.
Then there are the Democrats wild cards: five Republican seats where some combination of strong Democratic candidates divisive Republican primaries or potentially weak GOP nominees offers a chance to offset losses.
In rough descending order of possibility these include Missouri New Hampshire Ohio North Carolina and Kentucky. Democrats cant bank on any of them but just a win or two would buy their majority protection.
Its thus very hard to see how the Republicans can take over the Senate. But with North Dakota changing colors the Democrats map is not a happy one. If managing a barely filibuster-proof majority has been hell for the partys leaders this now seems to be one burden they wont have to worry about next year.
