Texan Perry Sizes Up Roadblocks to GOP Bid

By Neil King Jr. & Patrick OConner width=92Aides to Texas Gov. Rick Perry said they are scrambling to determine the logistical challenges he would face in making a late entry to the fight for the Republican presidential nomination the latest sign he is serious about joining the contest. Among their considerations is whether Mr. Perry has enough time to raise sufficient cash which generally requires personal contact with donors and fund-raisers. Aides also have made inquiries in Iowa to assess his chances there in the first-in-the-nation caucuses. The actions show that Mr. Perry has moved beyond thinking about joining the contest to determining whether he can build a winning campaign. Mr. Perry 61 would bring to the race an unusual blend of populism and establishment conservatism marked by a combative stance against a range of Obama administration policies. The three-term governor drew an enthusiastic response during a speech Saturday to the Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans when he challenged GOP candidates not to shrink from social issues such as opposition to abortion. He also touted the passage of legislation that requires voters to have valid identification. It saddens me when sometimes my fellow Republicans duck and cover in the face of pressure from the left Mr. Perry said touching a GOP debate over how much to highlight social issues such as abortion or gay marriage. Our party cannot be all things to all people. Mr. Perrys team is now preparing a list of the hurdles the governor faces including criteria for coming debates and filing deadlines for Iowa New Hampshire Nevada South Carolina and other early contests. Aides say they have made inquiries in Iowa to assess the logistics of competing in a closely watched straw poll there in August. If it drew money and media attention a Perry bid would make the odds all the longer for lesser-known candidates such as former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and former Utah Gov. Jon Huntsman who is expected to enter the race Tuesday. Those candidates are hoping to position themselves as the top alternative to former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney who has assumed front-runner status in recent national polls. Perry probably swallows up the rest of the air in the race said John Ryder a member of the Republican National Committee from Tennessee. He would give Romney a run for it. Mr. Perry will sift the pros and cons of a presidential run at the end of Texass special legislative session later this month aides say with the aim of making a decision in July. When the governor sits down to weigh all this he will ask: Can we raise the money? Do we have the political support? And do we have the time left to campaign? said David Carney the governors longtime political adviser. The governors team is reaching out to an array of large contributors and donation bundlers to assess whether Mr. Perry could raise enough money without having to devote weeks to fund-raising on his own. The governor will have to know that there are a lot of people who can raise money on their own said Mr. Carney. He and another top Perry aide Rob Johnson left the campaign of former House Speaker Newt Gingrich earlier this month as part of a mass staff departure. Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour who abandoned his own presidential aspirations earlier this year said the Texas governor would be a serious candidate if he chooses to run because hes relatively well known for somebody just now thinking about running. One factor in Mr. Perrys favor: Barriers to late entry this year are unusually low. Polls continue to show significant dissatisfaction among Republicans over the existing slate of candidates. In a Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey released last week 45 of GOP primary voters said they were satisfied with the current field of candidatesfar below the 73 who said they were satisfied at about this point in the last presidential election. Just as important no candidate has racked up a prohibitive campaign war chest. At this point in 2007 all the leading Republican candidates had already raised and spent tens of millions of dollars. Big donors and GOP operatives estimate that when the second quarter tallies come out next month all GOP candidates combined will likely fall short of the $44 million that Mr. Romney alone raised in the first half of 2007. Mr. Perry a former Air Force pilot who began in politics as a Democrat and backed Al Gore for president in 1988 has received significant encouragement to jump into the race from an array of big Republican donors his own aides and other GOP operatives said. Much of that attention turned to Mr. Perry after other prominent Republicans decided not to enter the 2012 contest above all Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels and former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee. In his New Orleans speech on Saturday Mr. Perry also highlighted job growth in Texas particularly since Mr. Obama took office. Texas added more than 200000 jobs in the past year more than any other state and more than twice second-ranked Californias total the Labor Department reported last week. He also asked people in the audience to send text messages to an entity run by his campaign a technique for building a list of contacts. A Perry candidacy would bring with it an array of strengths and liabilities. Mr. Perry has earned praise from tea-party groups by threatening to pull out of the federal Medicaid program and refusing to compete for billions of dollars in federal education grants. But polls show his popularity in Texas has flagged since he won a third term as governor last fall. The state lags in many key areas ranking near the bottom for instance in the rate of high-school graduation. Lawmakers are expected to pass this month backed by the governor legislation that would slash $4 billion from state education funding over the next two years and allow school districts to impose unpaid teacher furloughs a measure supported by Republicans but opposed by Democrats. As a presidential candidate Mr. Perry would face questions about whether the country is ready for another Texas Republican after eight years of George W. Bush. He would also need to make up ground on the other Republicans who have been campaigning for months. Republican operatives wonder whether he would be another Bill Clinton who entered the 1992 race late and wound up in the White House or a Fred Thompson the former Tennessee senator whose late presidential bid in the 2008 election flopped. Bob Haus a Republican political strategist in Iowa who helped Mr. Thompson in 2008 thinks Mr. Perry has a good shot at winning that states caucuses because of his background as a rancher and his plain-spoken delivery. Hes very comfortable in his own skin Mr. Haus said. He never tries to be someone hes not. Mr. Carney a New Hampshire native who had advised Mr. Perry for years said the governor remained truly undecided over whether he wanted to shoulder the intense burdens of a campaign. This isnt something you do on a lark Mr. Carney said. Running for the White House isnt a hobby.
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