Flawed GOP challengers & strong organization increase Democratic odds
A Strong Democratic Hand: The Lone Star Project has reviewed the top seven State House challengers for each party taking into account the relative strength of incumbents and challengers as well as the demographic and political trends in each district. Although todays national political environment favors Republicans virtually every other important factor plays to the benefit of Democrats.
The State House Legislative map was gerrymandered by Republicans in 2001 with the intent of guaranteeing a sizeable Republican majority throughout the decade (
Source: Austin American-Statesman July 24 2001).
Yet over the last two election cycles Democrats defied the expectations of pundits and political insiders and have closed the GOP State House advantage from fourteen seats to only three.
In 2010 even while facing a difficult national political environment Texas Democrats appear to have played their cards right and could walk away from the table holding a new majority.
Key Democratic Advantages in 2010
When comparing Democratic chances of gaining seats to Republican chances to increase their majority the Democratic advantage is evident.
Better Organization & Strategic Planning
Over the last five years without any meaningful support from national sources Texas Democrats have quietly built an effective political organization designed specifically to help State House and local candidates.
State-of-the art voter data along with professional targeting and polling are available to top-tier candidates and incumbent office-holders. Both the House Democratic Campaign Committee (HDCC) and Annies List provide financial support and professional guidance.
Under Chairman Boyd Richie the Texas Democratic Party aggressively protects and supports the rights of voters while also reinforcing the mainstream views of its most promising challengers.
Conversely Republican campaigns continue to be driven by a network of competing profit-driven consultants. And
due to Chair Cathie Adams extreme divisive policy positions and mean-spirited rhetoric the Republican Party of Texas is more burden than benefit to Republican candidates running competitive races.
Flawed & Ideologically Extreme Republican Incumbents Challengers
Most 2010 Republican challengers have adopted ideologically extreme views that take them outside mainstream thinking in Texas or in their districts.
Others are burdened with controversy or scandal.
Centrist-minded and practical Democratic incumbents and challengers
2010 Democratic challengers won their nominations by establishing themselves as centrist-minded problem solvers who are well-positioned to appeal to Democratic independent and fair-minded Republican voters.
Changing District Demographics
Although State House district lines were drawn by Republicans in 2001 to preclude Democratic victories strong Democratic candidates smart campaigns and changing district demographics have in many cases undermined the designs of Republican map drawers.
In 2010 all but one of the top tier Democratic challengers are running in districts with minority populations that were at least 20 percent in 2000 and are now significantly larger. This change in the voting universe allows Democrats the opportunity to build a broad-based coalition of Democrats independents and soft Republicans and makes it more difficult for Republicans to build a majority by appealing only to their far-right constituency.
Democrats Hold Good Hand
Democrats dont need a flush or an inside straight to capture a majority. Three of a kind will do. The challengers give Democrats a realistic chance to walk away from the table winners.
