Roger Williams is dominant front-runner in District 25
Texas Insider Report: WASHINGTON D.C. Just one election wasnt enough for primary voters in Texas on Tuesday
night so many crowded primaries are headed for a July 31 runoff. The GOP Senate primary is the top race to watch on July 31. On Tuesday
Lt. Gov. David Dewhurst took 44 and now will face former state Solicitor General Ted Cruz in two months in a one-on-one matchup.
But one candidate who wont get a second chance in extra innings is
Rep. Silvestre Reyes (D) who fell to former El Paso city representative
Beto ORourke. ORourke 39 defeated the incumbent by narrowly clearing the 50 percent threshold.
Dewhurst edged out Cruz by 10 points with the conservative favorite taking 34 percent. Former Dallas
Mayor Tom Leppert took 13 percent while former ESPN analyst
Craig James registered just 3 percent.
The July runoff sets up a showdown between the longtime frontrunner Dewhurst who poured nearly $10 million of his own money into the race so far and Cruz the favorite of national conservative groups.
Cruz was boosted in the multi-candidate primary by the Club for Growth
Sen. Jim DeMints (R-SC) Senate Conservatives Fund and FreedomWorks all of which sought to keep Dewhurst under 50 percent of the vote and to boost Cruz into second place .
Dewhurst has long worried about a summertime runoff when only the most faithful will head to the polls probably benefitting Cruz. Now following Dewhursts weaker than expected showing nothing less than an all out war is expected though Cruz will still need significant financial help from those same conservative groups to keep up with Dewhursts resources.
On the House side Reyes was the most closely-watched incumbent of the night and he was always the most endangered incumbent though most Democratic observers still believed he would eke out a victory. ORourke narrowly won the primary without a runoff.
While the anti-incumbent Campaign for Primary Accountability did spend over $240000 against Reyes the upset was brewing long before their recent interest and last-minute expenditures.
ORourke was a legitimate and well-funded challenger in his own right. He successfully attacked Reyes for paying family members from his campaign and raised questions over the congressmans ethics. The barbs
clearly had the incumbent worried though Reyes remained confident and defiant heading into Tuesday.
The congressman more than tripled ORourkes spending got former President Bill Clinton to campaign for him in El Paso secured an endorsement from President Obama and went aggressively after his challenger over his support of marijuana legalization and his past arrests hoping that character questions would dent ORourkes ascent.
While Reyes is the third incumbent to lose in a non-Member vs. Member primary there still has been little evidence of a sweeping anti-incumbent wave. Through 15 states 130 out of 133 Members (98 percent) have been renominated when not facing a House colleague.
The most worrisome outcome for national Democrats was in the 23rd District where their preferred candidate state Rep. Pete Gallego came in second to former
Rep. Ciro Rodriguez in the Democratic primary 46 percent to 40 percent. This expansive western district taking in parts of San Antonio will be the only competitive race in the state this fall. Rodriguez lost in 2010 to
Republican Quico Canseco and is not regarded as the strongest general election candidate. But Rodriguez and Gallego are headed to a runoff though thanks to the 13 percent attorney John Bustamante garnered.
Democrats believe
Gallego would mount the stronger challenge to Canseco and were impressed with his early fundraising but observers readily admitted that Rodriguez still had a base and could pull off an upset victory in the primary. Rodriguez had raised only $242000 through May 9 compared to Gallegos $656000 and Gallego outspent Rodriguez nearly three to one.
Meanwhile Republicans are feeling much better about Cansecos chances. The freshman was sitting on $770000 on May 9 while both Democrats will have to fight it out for another two months. Were moving this race from a Pure Toss-Up to Toss-Up/Tilt Republican.
Eighty-nine year old
Rep. Ralph Hall was the only Republican even in slight danger in his primary and the anti-incumbent Campaign for Primary Accountability put over $160000 into defeating him. But in the end the oldest member of Congress easily repelled his challenge taking 59 percent of the vote on his way to a seventeenth term.
Astute observers never believed Hall was in real jeopardy. Wealthy telecom executive Steve Clark who put in over $300000 of his own money and got 30 percent of the vote in 2010 only ramped up his campaign in the past two weeks -- not nearly enough time to mount a serious challenge. Clark drew 21 percent of the vote while racing parts company owner Lou Gigliotti took 20 percent building on the two percent he got in 2010.
Rep. Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) another incumbent rumored to be in danger easily dismissed her challenges attorney Taj Clayton and state Rep. Barbara Mallory Caraway winning 70 percent of the vote. Most surprising though was that Clayton who had impressed local observers with his fundraising and his campaign operation took only 11 percent and finished third behind Caraway.
Republicans yet again failed to doom
Rep. Lloyd Doggett (D) in redistricting. Choosing to run in the new 35th District which stretched from Austin to San Antonio after his 25th District became unwinnable for a Democrat he easily took 73 percent against two underfunded Bexar County Democrats.
With crowded primaries in four new seats the state gained in reapportionment the quartet of races are all
headed to a runoff but with some surprise candidates sneaking through in a few.
In the 25th District which snakes from the Fort Worth exurbs down to Austin former Texas Secretary of State
Roger Williams was the dominant frontrunner in the 12-way primary in this solid GOP seat taking a quarter of the vote. Hell face college professor /tea party activist
Wes Riddle a long-shot who finished a distant second with 14 percent. Riddle who put nearly $300000 of his own money in the race still likely wont be able to match Williams fundraising muscle who still had $760000 in the bank on May 9. Williams a former Senate candidate wealthy car dealer and friend of the Bush family will be the heavy favorite in July.
But most surprising was the lackluster performance of another Williams -- former Railroad Commissioner Michael Williams -- who placed a meager fifth in the multi-candidate field and took just 10 percent. Once seen as a dynamic promising African-American politician his fundraising had greatly disappointed state Republicans. But few thought hed fall that far in the field.
In the solidly Democratic North Texas 33rd District in the Dallas-Fort Worth metroplex the runoff field is set between state
Rep. Marc Veasey and former state
Rep. Domingo Garcia -- exactly what most strategists saw as the most probable outcome. Veasey finished first in the 11-candidate field with 37 percent while Garcia took 25 percent.
Garcia who is Hispanic in theory should have the advantage in this Hispanic majority seat but Veasey who is African-American is the favorite of much of the state establishment and is seen as a better all-around candidate. Observers expect Veasey will have the edge in July and African-Americans are more likely than Latino voters to turn out a second time too. Veasey has represented about 40 percent of the district in the Legislature and he should benefit from his strong name ID in Tarrant County.
Attorney
Filemon Vela has the edge in the south Texas 34th District getting a dominant 41 percent of the vote in an eight-way contest. Hell face Denise Saenz Blanchard on July 31 a former aide to ex-Rep. Solomon Ortiz who snuck into the runoff by about 230 votes getting about 12 percent.
In the solidly Republican Houston-area 36th District financial advisor
Stephen Takach who put in over $300000 of his own money was narrowly the top-vote getter but in a surprise hell face former
Rep. Steve Stockman in the runoff.
Most GOP observers here believed state
Sen. Mike Jackson was the tenuous frontrunner though those same sources said he was putting in a lackluster effort. Takach had made Republicans take note with his personal money but few still expected it would be Stockman who could sneak into the runoff. Stockman who was briefly in office from 1995 until 1997 after a redistricting redraw has mounted other comeback efforts since he was defeated by former
Rep. Nick Lampson (whos now running again in the 14th District) but has never gained traction. As of May 9 he had only $504 in the bank.
In the open 14th District GOP primary to succeed retiring
Rep. Ron Paul (R) the mid-summer contest will come down to top vote-getters state
Rep. Randy Weber who earned 27 percent and Pearland City Councilwoman Felicia Harris who took 19 percent in the 11-way field.
The winner will face Lampson in the fall. Democrats hope to make this Galveston seat competitive but for now its still an uphill climb and will likely remain solidly in the GOP column.
