Josef Joffe - Commentarymagazine.com
Will Obamas administration end up as a remake of Jimmy Carters? Carter started out with his own take on the audacity of hope": lets lose our inordinate fear of communism." Toward the end of his termthe Soviets had just invaded Afghanistanhe recanted. That action had made a more dramatic change" in his view of their true goals than anything they have done in the previous time I have been in office."
Two hundred and fifty days into his first term it is now reasonably clear that Mr. Obama is heading in the same directionif he continues to walk the road paved with good intentions. The man who knows better than most how to calculate and corral power at home who beat the mighty Hillary machine and snipped away John McCain does not seem to appreciate the game nations play. In that game nice guys dont win.
Take the most recent no-no. We could see it coming since the spring. Last week Obama finally gave away the anti-Iran missile shield to be deployed in Poland and the Czech Republic for nothing. No wonder the Russians are cheering as any rival of the United States would. A freebie is the loveliest gift in international politics.
The threat from Iran Obama said is still far far away. And so is our capacity to counter it. So you wonder why the U.S. installed a missile shield in Fort Greely Alaska years ago to offset Russias offensive potential that is far more deadly than Irans will ever be. To scare away the bears perhaps? And you then wonder why Obama wants to put such a porous shield out to sea into the Mediterranean for the missiles and radars are pretty much the same ones the Poles and the Czechs were supposed to host.
The answer is simple: The Russians dont like it. Mind you not because the U.S. missiles would have targeted their nuclear hardware. Nor were the Russians truly frightened as their generals have been freely conceding over the years. The real reason comes straight out of International Politics 101. Eastern Europe is their turf and off-limits for the U.S. Add to this the oldest game in Russian-Soviet policy which is to gain a veto over Western strategic choices. The United States denied them that veto for 40 years.
The U.S. deployed tactical nuclear weapons in Europe in the early 1950s brought a rearmed West Germany into NATO in 1955 fielded Pershing and cruise missiles in Western Europe in the early 1980s and brought former Soviet satrapies into the alliance during the 1990s all against the fierce opposition of the Soviets and Russians. Every American president since Truman has defied Moscows attempt to dictate Western security choices. Obama just granted the Russians that veto power. Lets hear a loud spasiba from Moscow for we wont hear much else.
Of course the expectation is that the Russians will finally come around and play ball on Iran that is agree to severe sanctions including the denial of a sophisticated air defense. We dont do (real) sanctions" has been Moscows mantra. Last week President Medvedev did a bit of tantalizing when he said: Sanctions rarely lead to productive results but in some cases sanctions are inevitable" Nice but noncommittal. Why would the Russians reciprocate? First they just got something for free. Second Putins game is not cricket but rugby. In that contest you collect allies against No. 1; you dont play Friday to Obamas Robinson Crusoe. Hence Moscow has diluted every proposal for sanctions that the U.S. has ever tabled. Count on some motion but not on movement.
Yet the missile farce is but a tile in the mosaic. Call it politics as psychiatry." You see Dr. Obama reasons so many clashes among cultures and nations are kind of psychosomatic not physical. They reflect misunderstanding and resentment. Lets try the talking cure lets soothe the patient and he will come around to a constructive view of reality.
The first blueprint of Diplobamacy was the presidents speech in Cairo. He reached out to the Muslim worldgood. He got a nice round of applausegratifying. He put some distance between the United States and Israelclever if you want to shine as honest broker." But in the coinage of influence and power he got nada.
And why would he? Has his earnest attempt at sowing goodwill nudged the Arab-Sunni powers into serious coalition-building against Iran? No. If you like fence-sitting you dont jump into American arms for a dose of flattery and kindness. Has Obama budged the Palestinians? No they pocketed the gift and asked for more. You showed us the money" they responded in so many words now pay up by putting the squeeze on the Israelis." Has it softened Jerusalem? Ask the wildcatting settlers in their illegal outposts. Bibi Netanyahu is worried about push coming to shove and hence he has dug in.
Mr. Ahmadinejad will graciously negotiate now that the U.S. is coming to the table. But listen to him. He will not talk about the nuclear program which is a nonnegotiable right." But he will chat about never-never land: about a world free of nuclear weapons. And while we are at it Mr. Obama why dont we start by making Israel nuclear-free? Obamas talking cure" is delivering a wondrous gift to Tehran: Ahmadinejad now has U.S. presidential permission to play for time which he has done since 2003 when the Europeans launched their hapless quest for denuclearization-on-the-cheap.
Such regimes are not crazy though it behooves them to act as if they were. This is the rationality of irrationality" whereby the patient" intimidates the would-be therapist with the threat of losing control. Push me and Ill do something really crazy" is the message. Such regimes cooperate a lot more enthusiastically if the fist of power lurks beneath the silky glove of diplomacy.
Yet power is what Mr. Obama does not want to show let alone employexcept in Afghanistan. Make that maybe. Or maybe not as the Taliban in their increasing aggressiveness have begun to calculate. Others around the world must be changing their calculi as well. For instance the Poles and Czechs solid allies of the U.S. are now reconsidering the price of loyalty. They and others are wondering about a president who seems to treat adversaries better than friends. And who seems to act as if silver-tongued oratory can crack real conflicts.
It took Jimmy Carter until Christmas 1979 when the Soviets rolled into Afghanistan to figure out that goodwill is not good enough. Lets hope Mr. Obama learns faster how to shift from good" to will." A reset no matter how often doesnt change the reality inside a computer. The operating system remains the same.
Josef Joffe is Senior Fellow at the Institute for International Studies and Abramowitz Fellow at the Hoover Institution both at Stanford University.
