By Karl Rove
Polls reveal voters are receptive to GOP ideas.
To save themselves in the midterm elections Democrats are counting on selling two themes: The state of the economy is all George W. Bushs fault and Republican policies will take us backwards. President Obama relished going to Texas this week to blame his predecessor for the current bad economy.
Nice try but it wont work. Dont take my word. This is what Mr. Obamas pollster Joel Benenson has found.
The Benenson Strategy Group wasnt exactly quite this blunt in its report for the Third Way a centrist Democratic organization. But its data was.
In its poll released in July Benenson asked Generally speaking who is more responsible for the recent economic recessionPresident Barack Obama or President George W. Bush? The answer was Mr. Bush 53 Mr. Obama 26 and Dont know 21.
But answers to important issues like whos responsible for the recession are rarely binary. Buried in the Third Way data was a different answer that went unmentioned in its covering memo. The question of whos responsible for the recession was asked a second way with more possible culprits.
Here the biggest blame for the recession went to big banks and Wall Street (34) followed by American consumers who lived beyond their means (24). Thirteen percent blamed Mr. Obama 20 blamed Mr. Bush and 9 were still in the dont know category. Put another way at least 80 didnt blame Mr. Bush as Mr. Obama obsessively does.
More importantly Americans simply wont fall for Mr. Obamas claim that if empowered congressional Republicans would only return to policies that crashed the economy . . . undercut the middle class . . . and mortgaged our future.
Here Mr. Obamas polling firm is more direct warning two-thirds of Americans now see congressional Republicans and their economic ideas as new. Its hard to argue with widely held impressions like this especially with 81 days left until Election Day.
In this falls contest the GOP has a strong hold on the banner of change. Republican candidates can strengthen that claim by emphasizing a positive agenda of reform fiscal restraint and economic growth while beating up Democrats for their miserable two-years of economic stewardship.
Mr. Obama and the Democrats are in a pickle because Americans dont like what theyve done. This was brought into sharp relief this week in a poll of likely voters in 13 states with hot U.S. Senate races.
The poll was sponsored by American Crossroads a political group involved in the midterm election that I support. Democrats now hold eight of these Senate seats while Republicans hold five. (The poll can be found at the website of American Crossroads.)
By a 61-33 margin voters in these battlegrounds believe America is on the wrong track. Republicans lead on the generic ballot in these Senate races by 47 to the Democrats 39.
The poll also tested each sides arguments offering a choice between what Democrats and Republicans are saying about the economy health care financial regulation and the countrys future. Republicans win all four arguments by margins of five to eight points.
If this holds up (as I believe it will) and if GOP candidates have adequate resources to make their arguments (this remains unclear) Republicans have an outside chance of taking control of the Senate. They need 10 more seats; since World War II the average number of Senate seats the out-party has gained in an administrations first midterm election is three.
For Mr. Obama and his party all the escape hatches are shutting at the same time. Blaming Bush and harping on the GOPs driving abilities is not a good strategy but it may be the best Mr. Obama and his beleaguered party have.
Democrats cant sell themselves as the results party as Democratic National Chairman Tim Kaine proclaimed in April. Nor do they have an attractive or popular policy agenda moving forward. Mr. Obamas fixation with blaming his predecessor has badly weakened him. Constantly engaging in the blame game makes the president look enfeebled and whiny rather than sturdy and confident. One of any presidents most important possessions is his reputation for strong leadership.
Democrats are likely to lurch from one approach to another. Candidates on the ropes often do. At this stage though it doesnt much matter what they decide on. The narrative for this election is firmly in place.
Mr. Rove the former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush is the author of Courage and Consequence (Threshold Editions 2010).
By Karl Rove
Polls reveal voters are receptive to GOP ideas.
To save themselves in the midterm elections Democrats are counting on selling two themes: The state of the economy is all George W. Bushs fault and Republican policies will take us backwards. President Obama relished going to Texas this week to blame his predecessor for the current bad economy.
Nice try but it wont work. Dont take my word. This is what Mr. Obamas pollster Joel Benenson has found.
The Benenson Strategy Group wasnt exactly quite this blunt in its report for the Third Way a centrist Democratic organization. But its data was.
In its poll released in July Benenson asked Generally speaking who is more responsible for the recent economic recessionPresident Barack Obama or President George W. Bush? The answer was Mr. Bush 53 Mr. Obama 26 and Dont know 21.
But answers to important issues like whos responsible for the recession are rarely binary. Buried in the Third Way data was a different answer that went unmentioned in its covering memo. The question of whos responsible for the recession was asked a second way with more possible culprits.
Here the biggest blame for the recession went to big banks and Wall Street (34) followed by American consumers who lived beyond their means (24). Thirteen percent blamed Mr. Obama 20 blamed Mr. Bush and 9 were still in the dont know category. Put another way at least 80 didnt blame Mr. Bush as Mr. Obama obsessively does.
More importantly Americans simply wont fall for Mr. Obamas claim that if empowered congressional Republicans would only return to policies that crashed the economy . . . undercut the middle class . . . and mortgaged our future.
Here Mr. Obamas polling firm is more direct warning two-thirds of Americans now see congressional Republicans and their economic ideas as new. Its hard to argue with widely held impressions like this especially with 81 days left until Election Day.
In this falls contest the GOP has a strong hold on the banner of change. Republican candidates can strengthen that claim by emphasizing a positive agenda of reform fiscal restraint and economic growth while beating up Democrats for their miserable two-years of economic stewardship.
Mr. Obama and the Democrats are in a pickle because Americans dont like what theyve done. This was brought into sharp relief this week in a poll of likely voters in 13 states with hot U.S. Senate races.
The poll was sponsored by American Crossroads a political group involved in the midterm election that I support. Democrats now hold eight of these Senate seats while Republicans hold five. (The poll can be found at the website of American Crossroads.)
By a 61-33 margin voters in these battlegrounds believe America is on the wrong track. Republicans lead on the generic ballot in these Senate races by 47 to the Democrats 39.
The poll also tested each sides arguments offering a choice between what Democrats and Republicans are saying about the economy health care financial regulation and the countrys future. Republicans win all four arguments by margins of five to eight points.
If this holds up (as I believe it will) and if GOP candidates have adequate resources to make their arguments (this remains unclear) Republicans have an outside chance of taking control of the Senate. They need 10 more seats; since World War II the average number of Senate seats the out-party has gained in an administrations first midterm election is three.
For Mr. Obama and his party all the escape hatches are shutting at the same time. Blaming Bush and harping on the GOPs driving abilities is not a good strategy but it may be the best Mr. Obama and his beleaguered party have.
Democrats cant sell themselves as the results party as Democratic National Chairman Tim Kaine proclaimed in April. Nor do they have an attractive or popular policy agenda moving forward. Mr. Obamas fixation with blaming his predecessor has badly weakened him. Constantly engaging in the blame game makes the president look enfeebled and whiny rather than sturdy and confident. One of any presidents most important possessions is his reputation for strong leadership.
Democrats are likely to lurch from one approach to another. Candidates on the ropes often do. At this stage though it doesnt much matter what they decide on. The narrative for this election is firmly in place.
Mr. Rove the former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush is the author of Courage and Consequence (Threshold Editions 2010).
