By Karl Rove
Gallup says independents now favor Republicans by nine points.
Passing health-care reform could be harmful to the health of congressional Democrats.
Just look at how President Barack Obamas standing has fallen as he has pushed for reform. According to Fox News surveys the number of independents who oppose health-care reform hit 57 at the end of September up from 33 in July. Independents are generally a quarter of the vote in off-year congressional elections.
Among college graduates opposition to health-care reform is now 50 while only 33 support it according to Gallups Sept. 24 poll. College graduates are slightly more than a quarter of the off-year electorate.
Among seniors opposition to ObamaCare hit 63 in last months Economist/YouGov Poll. But the number from that poll that should spook Democrats is this: 47 of seniors said they strongly oppose health-care reform just 27 strongly support it. Seniors are the biggest consumers of health care and their family members will probably take their concerns seriously. Seniors will likely cast about 20 of the votes next year.
The trend behind these numbers is that voters are turning away from Democrats. In 2006 the year the GOP lost control of Congress Democrats enjoyed a double-digit lead in several generic ballot pollsa measure of voters party preference. Democrats held that lead until this year. Today Gallups generic ballot shows Democrats have a razor thin 46 to 44 edge. According to Gallops numbers independents now favor Republicans by nine points.
The numbers may get worse for Democrats if they pass a health-care bill. Why? Because Senate Finance Committee Chairman Max Baucus (D. Mont.) wants to frontload the reforms with distasteful things. Under his plan tax hikes and Medicare and Medicaid cuts kick in immediately while new benefits are delayed for two-and-a-half years. Voters likely wont warm to reforms that slam them next year while promising benefits down the road.
Congressional Democrats could also be the first to feel a backlash against rising federal spending. An early September Gallup poll found that 38 approve and 58 disapprove of Mr. Obamas handling of the deficit (from 49 approve 44 disapprove in March). In September a Fox News poll found that 61 of independents think the Obama administration wants to increase spending too much; just 29 thought the amount of spending Mr. Obama wants is about right.
After a $787 billion stimulus package and other spending binges this year that have the administration planning to double the deficit in five years many voters are worried about the amount of red ink being spilled.
Voters likely wont react well to the price tag of Mr. Baucuss bill. Yesterdays Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report pegs its cost at $829 billion over the next 10 years. The CBO report claims the bill wont add to the budget deficit until 2015but the bill only manages that feat by delaying benefits and imposing taxes and Medicare and Medicaid cuts up front.
The CBO report does shed some light on the cost for each person the Baucus plan would add to the ranks of the insured. CBO estimates the plan would insure about 29 million people. If that is right and if the total price tag is also accurate the average cost per year per person for the seven-and-a-half years benefits will be in force during the programs first decade would be $3811. That compares favorably to private insurance. On average a single person now pays $4824 a year for health coverage and a family of four pays $3344 per family member per year according to the Kaiser Permanente Institute for Health Policy.
But the CBO numbers are almost certainly overly optimisticthere has only been one large-scale federal health program that has come in at or under its projected cost the Medicare prescription drug benefit enacted under the previous administration which is costing 40 less than estimated.
The good news for the president is that his job approval ratings appear to be stabilizing. The Rasmussen tracking poll for Oct. 2-3 shows 46 of likely voters approve and 50 disapprove of his performance essentially unchanged over the past month.
Independents the college educated and seniors may oppose health-care reform but if Mr. Obama has halted his slide congressional Democrats may be willing to bet on him and go for his whole health-care reform enchiladapublic option and all.
This battle is far from over. But what Democrats have to keep in mind is that there are two fights going on hereone over health care and another over which party will control Congress after next years elections. By waging the first they may be setting themselves up to lose the second.
Mr. Rove is the former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush.
