By Karl Rove
A summer of polling data suggest the GOP can take the House.
With the midterm election less than two months away all signs point to a punishing defeat for Democrats in the House of Representatives.
Since July 1 there have been 111 polls released on U.S. House races in 79 districts. Some were commissioned by news organizations; others came from the campaigns themselves or political groups (a detailed list is posted at Rove.com). Ninety-seven polls were conducted in seats held by Democrats while 14 were in Republican districts.
They show that Democratic incumbents trail GOP challengers in 30 districts and are behind in seven of nine open Democratic seats. By comparison GOP incumbents are ahead in seven of the eight contests polled and Republican hopefuls lead in four of the six races for GOP open seats. If Republicans prevailed in these fights they would net 34 of the 39 seats they need to win the House.
It could get worse. Of the 36 polls in which Democratic incumbents led Republican challengers were within three points in 12 contests and within five points in 18 others. By contrast in the 55 polls in which the GOP leads the Republican is ahead by more than five points in 36. And in all but two instances in which data are available the Democrat incumbents are significantly better known than their GOP challengers. As these challengers become better known theyre likely to rise in the polls.
Indianas second district is a good example. Republican State Rep. Jackie Walorski trails Democratic Congressman Joe Donnelly by only 44 to 46 according to an August American Action Forum poll. But Ms. Walorski is known by 78 of voters while Mr. Donnellys name ID is a near-saturation 97. This is a very winnable seat for the GOP.
On the money frontand despite the Republican National Committees considerable fund-raising and spending difficultiesthe Republican Governors Association has almost twice as much cash as the Democratic Governors Association. In addition the GOPs Senate campaign committee has achieved parity with its Democratic counterpart and as Josh Kraushaar pointed out in a perceptive piece in Politico the GOPs Congressional Campaign Committee has outraised its Democratic competitor over the last four months and is spending more wisely. This led Speaker Nancy Pelosi to write Democratic congressmen who hadnt contributed to their partys election fund telling them to call her within 72 hours to discuss their plans to give . . . or else.
The Democratic financial advantage is also offset by outside center-right groups. Some (including American Crossroads and Crossroads GPS organizations Im helping) are raising impressive sums and as importantly are working together to expand the battlefield to the GOPs advantage.
Republicans dont necessarily need to match the Democrats money. Democrats after all were outspent in 2006 when they won control of the House. What matters is sufficiencywhether GOP challengers have adequate funds to get out their message.
Democrats are saddled with two signature initiativesthe stimulus package and health-care reformthat are manifestly unpopular. Opponents of these laws are energized while supporters are lethargic.
No Democratic incumbent has run a single ad this summer heralding health-care reform while several have run ads emphasizing their opposition to it. Praise for the stimulus is rare even from the lips of Democratic candidates. Democrats have passed a lot of legislation but dont want to claim public credit for it.
No wonder. Consider what voters call the elections three most important issues. Republicans are leading Democrats on the economy by 11 points jobs by five and federal spending by 15 according to the Sept. 1 Gallup/USA Today survey.
This week the president is trying to regain the initiative by championing $50 billion in new stimulus spending temporary business tax breaks and an R&D tax credit. It wont matter. After Labor Day voters tend to be highly suspicious rightly seeing such new proposals as election eve shenanigans. While the surging party wins most of the toss-up contests in a year like this some Democratic incumbents will survive by spending every dollar they have to make their Republican challengers appear radioactive.
Its not too early to assess the damage done by Americas 44th president. He squandered his mandate and the publics enormous good will. He alienated voters and dropped a heavy yoke on his party with useless spending and a shockingly unpopular health-care bill. With pressure mounting and a potentially epic loss looming Mr. Obama has gone from a commanding engaging candidate to an arrogant self-pitying president. It is not pretty to witness.
The first people to pay the political price for Mr. Obamas mistakes will be congressional Democrats who likely will be swept out of their House majority this November.
Mr. Rove the former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush is the author of Courage and Consequence (Threshold Editions 2010).
