By Karl Rove
Presidential ratings usually drop after the speech.
It was a tense moment in the West Wing. Less than a year into a new presidents term a Senate seat was slipping to the opposition and taking with it the balance of power in the upper chamber. The presidents agenda was suddenly at risk.
If this sounds like Republican Scott Browns upset victory in Massachusetts last week it was actually Vermont Sen. Jim Jeffordss defection in 2001. Mr. Jeffordss decision to bolt the party cost the GOP not the 60th vote but a razor-thin majority. Yet following the defection George W. Bush passed his signature tax-cut package No Child Left Behind education reform and a budget that cut in half the growth of discretionary domestic spending from the sizzling 16 rate of President Bill Clintons last budget.
As congressional Democrats back awayfor nowfrom Mr. Obamas health-care agenda it is worth asking if this presidents agenda is really aligned with what Americans want. This was supposed to be a historic presidency. But if its undone by the loss of the 60th Senate Democrat was Mr. Obama actually prepared for the challenges of governing?
The Massachusetts defeat Mr. Obama said on Sunday on ABCs This Week caused him to try to reset the tone in his State of the Union address because we had lost some of that sense of common cause that existed a year ago.
But that sense of common cause wasnt lost. It was abandoned when Mr. Obama attempted to do things he hadnt prepared Americans for such as a government takeover of health care and when he failed to revive the flagging economy.
Now Mr. Obama wants to hit the reset button with his State of the Union address. But since World War II presidential job approval ratings have dropped an average of 1.8 points after a presidents first State of the Union speech. Over the past 25 years presidents have experienced virtually no changean average drop of 0.1 points in Gallups job approval ratingsafter giving a State of the Union address. That indicates that last nights teleprompter special is unlikely to stop Mr. Obamas decline.
Mr. Obama entered 2010 with 49 job approval according to Gallup. Thats down from 67 last January. Those who strongly disapprove of his performance outnumber those who strongly approve by 41 to 26 according to Rasmussens latest poll.
Mr. Obamas slide over the past year has been led by independents (whose support is down 17 points since last January) seniors (down 19 points) those making $60000 to $90000 a year (down 19 points) Republicans (down 23 points) and conservatives (down 24 points).
On the generic ballot a measure of party strength Republicans lead Democrats by five points in National Public Radios latest poll and by eight points in Rasmussens latest survey.
These numbers are worse than Democrats faced at this point in 1994. If Democrats fare better this year than they did 16 years ago it will likely only be because they have fewer open seats to defend and because they are taking their challengers more seriously than they did in 1994.
One of Mr. Obamas first reactions to last weeks Massachusetts debacle was to install his 2008 campaign manager as an ber-election czar for Democrats. But the White House tried to boost Democrats running for governor in New Jersey and Virginia last year. They lost anyway.
It probably didnt help Democratic morale when the White House complained it was blindsided by Mr. Browns victory. Politico reports the White House had the Democratic Party spend $2.2 million on surveys and focus groups in just a 10-month span last year. That money was supposed to let Team Obama see these things coming.
Mr. Obamas problems are not political management but policy. They wont be solved by faux fiscal restraint mini-ball proposals for the middle class and angry pretensions to populism.
By his own Office of Management and Budget numbers Mr. Obama has raised the baseline of discretionary domestic spending by a total of $115 billion since his inauguration bumping it up midway through the 2009 fiscal year budget and then increasing it again for the 2010 fiscal year.
Mr. Obama is now calling for a spending freeze to save $15 billion for fiscal year 2011. Thats nice but it freezes in place a 24 increase in discretionary nonsecurity domestic spending. The president would also exempt from a freeze the $512 billion that has yet to be spent from last years stimulus package. To present such a proposal as a serious attempt at restraining spending is to reveal a low opinion of the intelligence of ordinary Americans.
Mr. Obama has squandered the sense of common cause he talked about on Sunday that many felt at his inauguration. In the week leading up to his State of the Union he did little to rekindle that spirit or reverse his sinking fortunes.
Mr. Rove the former senior adviser and deputy chief of staff to President George W. Bush is the author of the forthcoming book Courage and Consequence (Threshold Editions).
