By Kimberly A. Strassel
Democrats still face big political challenges in passing health legislation.
We now interrupt our previously scheduled health-care summit drama to take the nation back to the day after Scott Browns Massachusettss victory. Hoopla aside the programming remains the same.
The thing to know about President Obamas health talkfest is that it had zero to do with Republicans or their ideas. The GOP came it spiritedly debated it left. The president never budged. He never intended to.
The Summit Show was designed by Democrats for Democrats to give Mr. Obama an all-day stage to inspire and exhort his party to charge once more into the health fray. Its about altering the political atmospherics admitted one senior Democrat. Yet for all the talk of jump-start theres little to suggest the ugly politics of passage have changed.
The day after Mr. Browns victory broke the majoritys power Democrats turned to New Strategy Version 37 Part 12. It is now House Speaker Nancy Pelosis job to pass the Senates Christmas Eve bill. It is Senate Majority Leader Harry Reids job to pass retroactive fixes to that legislation through an unsightly reconciliation process that requires only 51 Senate votes.
The strategy is somewhat bully for Mr. Reid who can afford to lose eight of his own members. Its meaningless for Mrs. Pelosi. If the speaker had the votes post-Brown to pass the Senate bill wed be living under ObamaCare. She didnt have them then and yesterdays summit was a sideshow to the problems she has getting them now.
A few numbers: Mrs. Pelosi passed her health-care bill in early November with three votes to spare. The one Republican yes has since bailed. On the Democratic side one vote has left Congress one has died and one retires this week. A smaller Congress means Mrs. Pelosi only needs 216 votes. If all were equal to November shes at 216.
Only it isnt November. Its nearly March and the speaker is being asked to pass a bill vastly different from her own in the wake of a crushing electoral defeat and in light of dire public-opinion polls.
Mrs. Pelosi has at least 11 Democrats with big problems with the Senates flimsy language on publicly funded abortions. This is the same crew that nearly derailed her first bill and whose threats at the time were serious enough to cause Mrs. Pelosi to throw over her liberals in favor of pro-life demands.
For many this is a moral issue that cant be changed with Cornhusker kickbacks or atmospherics. Rep. Bart Stupak the Michigan Democrat who spearheaded the pro-life fight has already declared the Senate bill unacceptable. And the Conference of Catholic Bishops has no intention of now giving these pro-life Democrats an out.
Another reality is Mrs. Pelosis many announced retirements. The conventional wisdom holds that some Blue Dogs who voted no the first timesay Tennessees John Tannermight now be willing to stick it to their constituents as their last act in Congress. Maybe.
Mrs. Pelosi is surely more worried about retiring members who voted yes and are convinced that vote hastened their departure. Arkansas Rep. Marion Berry used his retirement announcement to rip the White House for pushing Blue Dogs into an electoral abyss. House Democrats leaving to run for the Senateincluding Indianas Brad Ellsworth or New Hampshires Paul Hodesmight be more interested in say winning those races than clinging to their prior yes votes.
Speaking of Indiana Mr. Reids decision to go reconciliation adds to Mrs. Pelosis problems. If retiring Sen. Evan Bayh votes no on reconciliation is Mr. Ellsworthrunning for Mr. Bayhs seatgoing to vote yes? Democratic senators will claim to vote
against reconciliation on technical grounds but the public will view it as the disownment of the presidents agenda.
The pressure on House Democrats from states with senators who vote no will be incalculable.
Dont forget too the House members who have seen their district polls disintegrate since their first yes. No doubt they appreciated the presidents spirit yesterday. Yet unless the summit drives a 30-point shift in public opinion they retain good reason to not repeat their mistake.
The trillion-dollar question is how many votes Mrs. Pelosi had in reserve the first time. Yet here too March is no November. These members are now on record in opposition. They have benefited back home from those no votes. Why flip now?
Mrs. Pelosi has been effective at marshalling votes and nobody should write her off. Yet it says plenty that she is demanding that Mr. Reid go first. Something big must change for her to move her members. Mr. Reid knows even reconciliation is no sure thing and is demanding that Mrs. Pelosi be the one to go first.
The next few days will provide a better sense as to whether the sight of 40 Washington pols summiting over CBO estimates is a game changer.
Dont count on it. Talk is easy. Politics is hard.
