By Charlie Cook
Ive lost count of how many
critical" events this year are now little more than an afterthought. Theres no doubt however that
Mitt
Romneys speech tonight is enormously important arguably more so than the debates or anything else that is likely to happen between now and Nov. 6.
My biggest complaint with many younger political journalists is their lack of appreciation for scale & context. Some seem to think that almost every event is huge and consequential and will remain so until Election Day.
How often have you heard an assertion like that on cable or talk radio or read it in a blog?
Sure in a close race debates can become important. It was a debate that put Ronald Reagan over the top in 1980.
Like this year the Democratic incumbent in that case President Carter was enormously vulnerable. But Reagans problem was that because he was a former movie
actor voters werent sure whether he was smart enough and big enough to be commander in chief.
Before the debate he had not crossed that threshold of being presidential. Reagan did a great job in the debate clearing the threshold with ease. And over the final five days of the campaign the race went from too close to call" by nearly every account to a 51 to 41 Reagan victory (with independent John Anderson picking up the remainder).
As in 1980 voters today are open to the suggestion of firing the president. And like 32 years ago the Republican challenger has not yet crossed a crucial threshold.
But unlike Reagan in 1980 Romneys challenge isnt about his intellect or command of issues hurdles that he can easily clear with a strong debate performance.
Romneys test is more personal. Voters began this week feeling like they didnt know him. For whatever reason his campaign is just now getting around to attempting to establish a personal connection between Romney and the public.
That connection cannot be made in a debate; the format doesnt lend itself to it. Those wavering Republican-leaning independents along with the pure independents and Democrats disaffected with Obama and the economy need to feel more comfortable about Romney the person before they trust him with their votes.
Romney desperately needs to leave Tampa having created that relationship. Ann
Romneys speech was a start but tonight Romney has to do the connecting himself.
President Obamas campaign and allied groups have done a masterful job of raising doubts about the GOP nominee. Romney needs to connect enough to earn the benefit of the doubt from voters.
Tonight isnt about a pitch to be president of the high school class. It isnt a popularity or likability contest but it is about clearing a threshold.
The Cook Political Report lists 11 swing states. Pollster.com has Obama leading in 10 (all but North Carolina) although some weeks Iowa tilts slightly toward Romney. The swing-state situation looks less promising for Romney than the very tight national picture.
These swing voters in battleground states have heard Romney called virtually everything short of a corporate grim reaper. They dont need to consider him a guy they would like to have a beer with but they need to feel that if he were a neighbor they could comfortably ask him to collect the newspapers and the mail while they were away.
Focus groups show that people perceive Romney as aloof and wonder whether he would even speak to them. His friends say that this is ridiculous that hes a terrific guy.
But the doubts persist. Tonight is the night Romney needs to fix that.
Charlie Cook a political analyst for NBC News is Editor & Publisher of The Cook Political Report. He appears regularly on the ABC CBS and NBC evening news programs as well as on Good Morning America.
