Trump has averaged 33 of youth votes per state compared to McCains 29 and Romneys 28
Texas Insider Report: WASHINGTON D.C. While no one claims
Donald Trump has engaged the nations youth vote like Sen. Bernie Sanders the Republican presidential candidate has
won more support from younger voters than the GOPs last two presidential candidates
or Hillary Rodham Clinton.
The youth vote has been very active this year with participation in the GOP and Democratic contests more evenly split than expected or than in the most recent presidential election cycles.
A new analysis of the primary youth vote from Tufts Universitys Jonathan M. Tisch College of Civic Life shows that in 21 primaries Trump received 828675 votes from those up to age 29 and Clinton 766425. Sanders owned the category receiving 2052081 votes.
And said the report
During the primary season Donald Trump received a slightly larger proportion of youth votes than the two previous Republican nominees Senator John McCain (2008) and Governor Mitt Romney (2012).
Before all other candidates suspended their campaigns Trump was receiving an average of 33 of youth votes per state compared to McCains average of 29 and Romneys 28 in their competitive primaries.
The Tufts Centers research arm
said that Trump did fairly well among the millennials despite their unfavorable view of him.
He did well among younger voters with no college degree a group that Tufts said tends to vote in higher numbers in the general election than in primaries.
The analysis listed these potential implications for the general election:
- Young people without a 4-year college degree one of Mr. Trumps strongest constituencies among youth tend to vote at higher rates in general elections than in primaries.
- However their overall turnout is still fairly low. This could inform Mr. Trumps campaign outreach strategy and suggests a need to mobilize a great deal of non-college youth to move the overall youth electorate in his favor.
- Consistent with the political polarization of the general electorate about two-thirds of young people who participated in the Republican primaries identified as conservatives rather than moderates.
- However like many young voters today young Republican primary participants were less likely than older voters to identify with the Republican Party.
With less than five months until Election Day Mr. Trumps campaign has both challenges and opportunities with young voters said Kei Kawashima-Ginsberg director of CIRCLE.
On the one hand the youth electorate has been very active this year with youth participation in the GOP and Democratic contests more evenly split than in recent presidential cycles. On the other hand youth of color and young women are currently the least likely groups to support Mr. Trump Kawashima-Ginsberg said.
In addition it would be a mistake for Mr. Trump to take young conservative voters for granted. Not only does he need them to win the White House but the Republican Party needs them to build for the future. As always youth outreach and mobilization will matter in 2016.