By John Harwood the New York Times
Published: 03-04-08
This week more than any other of the 2008 Democratic campaign has acquired an air of decisiveness.
That is because four primary contests on Tuesday could extinguish Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton’s hope of overtaking Senator Barack Obama. After 11 consecutive losses she trails badly in Vermont runs even or slightly behind in Texas and leads in Ohio and Rhode Island.
Yet the hinge could still swing either way. If Mrs. Clinton carries the behemoths of Ohio and Texas — despite her opponent’s momentum and financial advantage — Mr. Obama may rue this week as both an end and a beginning.
Specifically Tuesday could be the end of his coronation as Democratic standard-bearer and the beginning of a wrenching springtime struggle. With Clinton victories on Tuesday neither political realities nor “delegate math” would preclude it.
Carrying On
Clinton loyalists aren’t brimming with optimism. Her once-formidable leads in Texas and Ohio have vanished leaving her dependent on robust turnout among Hispanics in the former and white women in the latter.
One wild card both campaigns are weighing: sympathetic supporters could vote in large numbers to save her candidacy from extinction. “She has a shot” at carrying both Texas and Ohio said her husband’s onetime strategist James Carville.
If she does Mr. Carville said “This thing is going on.” There are three reasons that could happen.
The first is financial. Trailing candidates usually quit for lack of money. Yet the $35 million Mrs. Clinton raised in February — even if dwarfed by her opponent’s total which some Obama aides peg at about $60 million — suggests that she’ll have the means to continue especially if she starts winning.
The second concerns delegates. David Plouffe the Obama campaign chief painted a daunting picture of his candidate’s edge in pledged delegates which ranges from 134 to 159 depending on who’s counting. To erase it Mr. Plouffe noted Mrs. Clinton would have to win more than 60 percent of the pledged delegates selected after Tuesday.
What he didn’t say was this: Even if Mr. Obama wins more than 60 percent he won’t have enough pledged delegates to reach the 2025 needed for the nomination. Unless Mrs. Clinton quits either candidate will need votes from the so-called superdelegates.
Which leads to the third reason: Mrs. Clinton could make a case to superdelegates that she wins the biggest battles while Mr. Obama rolls up delegates in states like Idaho Utah and Nebraska that matter little in the general election.
“That’s a great line if it’s true” said Bill Carrick a Democratic strategist. With earlier victories in California New York New Jersey and Massachusetts and a good chance to win Pennsylvania on April 22 taking both big contests on Tuesday would bolster that argument.
It would also increase pressure on the Democratic Party to schedule do-overs in Michigan and Florida both stripped of delegates for accelerating their primaries. Both states went ahead with nonbinding votes most of which went to Mrs. Clinton.
Differences of Opinion
And if she loses in those big states? Though her husband former President Bill Clinton has said she needs those victories to continue falling short would not ensure that she would quit at least not immediately. “Inside the Clinton world there will be divisions” said Mr. Carrick an aide to Senator Edward M. Kennedy and former Representative Richard A. Gephardt in past nomination races. Among staff members donors and prominent supporters those divisions would become more acute the more ambiguous the returns — winning Ohio solidly but losing Texas narrowly for example.
But even one loss would cripple her argument about dominating big states. Among superdelegates and other party leaders Mr. Carville cautioned Mrs. Clinton would face “people saying things publicly and privately” to goad her to quit — a chorus that may have begun Sunday when some Obama supporters and Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico who has not yet endorsed a candidate urged her to consider dropping out if she loses.
What makes Mrs. Clinton’s situation unique is the presence of a former president in her innermost circle. The early marker he offered of the stakes on Tuesday could be seen as the precursor of private advice but some who know the Clintons doubt it.
“No one has to sit her down and tell her what the reality is” said Jonathan Prince a Clinton administration veteran who advised John Edwards this year. If one of the Clintons is quicker to reach a hardheaded calculation that further campaigning would be fruitless he added it is more likely to be Mrs. Clinton.
