58 of Michigan Republican primary voters felt betrayed by Party
By Gary L. Bauer
WASHINGTON D.C. (Texas Insider Report) If a good friend or family member cheats you or sells you out to an enemy it stings and you want to
do something about it.
I mention this psychological point because there is exit poll data from Tuesdays Primaries that should shake the governing and donor class of the Republican Party to its very core.
Every GOP operative is celebrating the higher turnout in the primaries this year. Voting in Michigan broke a 40-year record. Some precincts ran out of ballots.
But is the high turnout evidence of excitement in the GOP? Or is it evidence of the grassroots trying to teach the establishment a lesson?
The results suggest it is the latter. Betrayal when your friend turns their back on you it generates powerful emotions and anger.
According to CNN 58 of Republican primary voters in Michigan said they felt betrayed by the Republican Party. And the result has been high in every state where the question has been asked.
The main anti-establishment candidates Donald Trump and Ted Cruz are running first and second respectively. Just look at their combined totals from last night. Together Trump and Cruz took:
- 62 of the vote in Michigan
- 73 of the vote in Idaho
- 75 of the vote in Hawaii and
- 83 of the vote in Mississippi
The voters who feel betrayed by the Republican Party include a significant percentage of evangelicals who dont think the party seriously fought to defend their values from life to marriage and now religious liberty.
There are Tea Party movement advocates too who thought the party was serious about limiting the size and scope of government.
And most notably blue-collar families whose angst and discontent rest on two pillars -- one is culture and the other economic.
The Results: Republicans
Donald Trump carried three of four states last night -- Hawaii Michigan and Mississippi. Sen. Ted Cruz won Idaho and finished second in the other contests.
Clearly Mr. Trump is still in the drivers seat and Cruz is still the only viable alternative to the front-runner. That is the bottom line from a purely objective political analysis.
In fact Michigan voters were asked in one exit poll how they would have voted if their only choices were Trump and Cruz. The results: 46 Cruz 37 Trump.
Of course the bigger story is the revolt of Blue Collar America. Not only is the Republican Party feeling the sting but Hillary Clinton got whacked too.
There is increasing speculation about whether Donald Trumps appeal to blue-collar voters could alter the political landscape. For example if Democrats carry Illinois Michigan Minnesota Ohio Pennsylvania and Wisconsin this year as they have in recent elections they will own the White House for another four years.
If Republicans carry just Ohio there is a chance they could eke out a narrow victory as George W. Bush did and regain the White House. But if the Republican nominee carries Ohio as well as Michigan or Pennsylvania or Wisconsin the GOP would most likely win the White House in an earth-shattering political realignment.
The Results: Democrats
Bernie Sanders stunned the pundits and proved the pollsters wrong yesterday. The last poll before the Michigan primary gave Hillary Clinton a whopping 27-point lead.
Sanders voters ignored the polls and gave him a 50 to 48 victory over Hillary. One commentator said the Michigan polling was among the greatest polling errors in primary history.
But Mrs. Clinton had some good news too. She won the Mississippi primary by a lopsided margin of 83 to 17.
The GOP Is Shattering
Former Reagan speechwriter Peggy Noonan (below) had a column in the
Wall Street Journal last weekend warning that the 2016 primary contest was exposing fault lines in the GOP that threatened to shatter the Party of Lincoln and Reagan.
Responding to the establishments threats to form a new party if Donald Trump is the nominee Noonan wrote:
Do they understand what theyre ending? Did they ever? It started in 1860. Its first great figure was a man called Lincoln. Well start a new party and call it Fred they tweet. Well be the party in exile. Implicitly: And I and my friends will run it. Like little boys knocking over building blocks. . .
But we are witnessing history. Something important is ending. It is hard to believe what replaces it will be better. No one knows where this goes. The top of the party and the bottom have split. They disagree on the essentials...
If trends continue... Mr. Trump will win or come very close to winning by the convention in July. If party forces succeed in finagling him out of the nomination his supporters will bolt which will break the party...
If on the other hand Mr. Trump is given the crown in Cleveland party political figures operatives loyalists journalists and intellectuals not to mention sophisticated suburbanites and God knows donors will themselves bolt. That is a smaller but not insignificant group...
Leaders and thinkers should take note: Its easier for a base to hire or develop a flashy new establishment than it is for an establishment to find itself a new base.
