6 in 10 say economy & conditions getting worse
By Frank Newport
Texas Insider Report: PRINCETON NJ Americans continue to have both a negative view of current U.S. economic conditions and a bleak outlook for the U.S. economys future resulting in a Gallup Economic Confidence Index reading of -28 for the week of Aug. 13-19 basically unchanged from the previous week.
Americans economic confidence has been low for most of the summer so far with weekly averages between -23 and -29 since June 11. Prior to that Americans had been somewhat more optimistic and the weekly average of -16 in late
May represented the highest confidence reading of the year.
The -29 figure reached in January and again in late July represent the low points of the year so far. At the same time Americans confidence was significantly lower in the latter part of 2011 than it is now.
Gallups Economic Confidence Index consists of two measures -- one assessing current economic conditions and the other assessing the nations economic outlook.
Last week 13 of Americans rated the economy either excellent or good while 43 rated it poor -- resulting in a current conditions rating of -30. Sixty percent of Americans said the U.S. economy is getting worse compared with 35 who said it is getting better yielding an economic outlook rating of -25.
Americans have been more likely to say the economy is getting worse than to say it is getting better in every weekly average since Gallup began
tracking these measures in January 2008.
Bottom Line
With the first of the two back-to-back presidential nominating conventions about to begin next Monday voters views of the economy will take on increasing political importance. Republicans will contend that Barack Obama has failed to do enough to remedy the depressed economic conditions he inherited in January 2009 while Democrats will argue that Mitt Romneys election would make economic matters worse rather than better. All of these arguments will be playing to an audience of Americans who agree on one thing: current economic conditions are not good and the economys direction is down rather than up.
There are 2 ½ months left before the election on Nov. 6 and Americans views of the economy can in theory still change during that time. Gas prices have been going up in recent weeks and it is possible that this has negatively affected Americans views of the economy. If prices go down again as they usually do at the end of the summer Americans could become more positive.
On the other hand the stock market has been generally moving up since June yet that hasnt seemed to improve Americans perceptions -- meaning other issues are influencing their views of the economy including
the jobs situation.
Gallups
mid-month assessment of the employment situation suggests it is unlikely that the government on Sept. 7 will report a significant decrease in unemployment for August.
Whatever happens going forward the continuing negative views of the economy Gallup has measured over this summer so far show no signs of any upward shift in Americans economic optimism.
Gallup.com reports results from these indexes in daily weekly & monthly averages and in Gallup.com stories. Read more about or view Gallups economic 
measures & release schedule.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews conducted as part of Gallup Daily tracking from Aug. 13-19 2012 with a random sample of 3389 adults aged 18 and older living in all 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia selected using random-digit-dial sampling.
For results based on the total sample of national adults one can say with 95 confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±2 percentage points.
Interviews are conducted with respondents on landline telephones and cellular phones with interviews conducted in Spanish for respondents who are primarily Spanish-speaking. Each sample includes a minimum quota of 400 cell phone respondents and 600 landline respondents per 1000 national adults with additional minimum quotas among landline respondents by region. Landline telephone numbers are chosen at random among listed telephone numbers. Cell phone numbers are selected using random-digit-dial methods. Landline respondents are chosen at random within each household on the basis of which member had the most recent birthday.
Samples are weighted by gender age race Hispanic ethnicity education region adults in the household and phone status (cell phone only/landline only/both cell phone mostly and having an unlisted landline number). Demographic weighting targets are based on the
March 2011 Current Population Survey figures for the aged 18 and older non-institutionalized population living in U.S. telephone households. All reported margins of sampling error include the computed design effects for weighting and sample design.
In addition to sampling error question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
For more details on Gallups polling methodology visit
www.gallup.com.
