The Rothenberg Political Report
Texas Insider Report: WASHINGTON D.C. Orrin Hatch captured the GOP nomination and a 7th term in the Senate on Tuesday by defeating former state Sen. Dan Liljenquist 67 to 32. Hatchs victory puts him in stark contrast to his Senate colleague Indianas Dick Lugar who lost renomination earlier 
this year. Lugar and his team never seemed to fully grasp the seriousness of the race or the new political reality where longevity and experience are no longer considered assets.
Hatch nearly secured the nomination outright at the April convention but fell just short of 60 percent of the delegates necessary. That showing likely scared off potential outside groups who may have gotten involved if the longtime senator looked weaker.
On the other hand Hatch and his team took his re-election very seriously from the day after his colleague Sen. Bob Bennett (R) was defeated at the GOP convention in 2010. Hatchs team understood Utahs unique caucus convention and primary system and Hatch was able to neutralize criticism of his record from the right.
Liljenquist was a good candidate and likely has a future in Utah politics. Six years is an eternity in politics but Hatch has already said his seventh term would be his final term leaving a wide open race in 2018.
New York House: Rangels Last Stand
The rumors of Charlie Rangels demise were once again over-exaggerated. though the longtime Democratic congressman had to beat back a spirited challenge from state Sen. Adriano Espailliat 46 percent to 39 percent.
Most Democratic observers expect this will be the last time the 82 year-old congressman will stand for re-election and believe he simply wanted to go out on his own terms.
It wasnt Rangels past ethics problems after he was censured in 2010 that made him particularly vulnerable. The former House Ways and Means Committee Chairman picked up almost a quarter of new territory in redistricting largely from heavily Hispanic and Dominican areas in the 
Bronx transforming his district into a majority minority seat.
Rangel had also been hobbled lately by back problems having sometimes to use a walker or cane. Hed missed some critical campaign events in the district in the races final days leading some to wonder about the strength of his ground game which most expected would save him in the low-turnout primary. But in the end Rangel proved that he is able to get his base out to the polls even in a June primary a novelty to New Yorkers.
The Campaign for Primary Accountability had targeted Rangel and some eyebrows were raised when former President Bill Clinton didnt get involved here like he had for Rangel in the past. But one of Clintons former aides Clyde Williams Jr. was also running and received 10 percent of the vote.
The states only other incumbent on the bubble on Tuesday Rep. Nydia Velazquez easily survived her primary challenge from New York City Councilman Erik Dilan.
While Velazquez had picked up nearly 30 percent new territory she was never considered particularly vulnerable. Dilan did have the backing of Brooklyn Democratic Chairman Vito Lopez who has long been at odds with Velazquez.
In the open 8th District late Democratic fears that controversial Councilman Charles Barron could upend Assemblyman Hakeem Jeffries were unfounded and Jeffries cruised to a nearly 50-point win to succeed retiring Rep. Edolphus Towns who left in the face of a strong primary challenge from Jeffries. Towns endorsed Barron a former Black Panther who had once brought African dictator Robert Mugabe to City Hall. Jeffries had the strong support of nearly all of the states establishment and has been billed as a rising star to watch for Democrats.
In the open 6th District Assemblywoman Grace Meng won her competitive primary with just over 50 percent of the vote and is poised to become the states first Asian-American female congresswoman. Meng had the backing of the Queens Democratic Party over Assemblyman Rory Lancman who tried to get labor support and felt hed been snubbed by Queens Democrats and party leader Rep. Joe Crowley. But the congressman didnt even back his cousin Councilwoman Elizabeth Crowley in the race. Meng should easily win this fall.
While those all represent safe Democratic seats New York may well feature the most competitive races for GOP incumbents and Democrats got their favored candidate in two key races where theyre hoping to knock off GOP freshmen.
Former Clinton aide Sean Patrick Maloney earned the right to face Rep. Nan Hayworth (R) edging out cardiologist Richard Becker in the 18th District. Maloney proved to be an impressive fundraiser and this district got slightly more Democratic in redistricting giving McCain just 47 percent. Hayworth will have a tough fight on her hands.
Similarly in the 19th District attorney Julian Schreibman (D) won his primary and will run against Rep. Chris Gibson (R) in a very competitive general election. The Republicans district got about three points better for Democrats.
For Republicans former Erie County Executive Chris Collins won his primary in the 27th District over Iraq War veteran David Bellavia 59 percent to 41 percent.
Collins is a threat to Rep. Kathy Hochul (D) who finds herself now in the most Republican district in the state. But even many national and local Republicans are unenthused about Collins and this one remains competitive even though it should be a more uphill climb for Democrats than it is.
Oklahoma House: Incumbent Sullivans Unexpected Loss
In one of the most surprising outcomes of this election cycle Rep. John Sullivan lost in the GOP primary in Oklahomas 1st District. Like his colleague in Ohio Rep. Jean Schmidt Sullivan didnt take his primary race seriously enough from the beginning and by the time he figured out he was in danger it was too late to change the trajectory of the contest.
Sullivan lost to museum executive director Jim Bridenstine 53 percent to 47 percent.
There were subtle late signs that Sullivan might be in trouble but they were ignored by most. Over the weekend Sullivan told the Associated Press I never had a race like this in all my life...The only mistake I made was I ignored it for too long. By that time the congressmans campaign had gone negative against Bridenstine in television ads but it was too little too late and the Navy pilot turned congressional challenger didnt give Sullivan a lot of avenues to attack.
Bridenstine not only ran as the outsider and as the more conservative candidate but was bold in attacking Sullivans character since the congressman missed some time in Congress to get treatment for alcoholism. GOP insiders believe that Sullivans failure to address the missed votes directly was a significant factor in his defeat.
The congressman outspent Bridenstine $750000 to $198000 through the June 6 pre-primary period and enjoyed $100000 in outside spending on his behalf. Bridenstine didnt appear to have support from any of the typical outside groups.
Sullivan becomes the fourth member of Congress to lose in a primary to a non-incumbent challenge. Even with the congressmans loss 98 percent of incumbents seeking re-election this year have won their primaries when not facing another member of Congress. (Its not reasonable to include incumbents who lost Member vs. Member races in a list of incumbent casualties since a Member had to lose that race even if congressional job approval was at 90 percent.)
In the 2nd District left open by Democratic Rep. Dan Borens retirement Democrats ability to hold the seat got slightly more difficult after their preferred candidate former District Attorney Rob Wallace was forced into a runoff against seed company owner/Tulsa County Farm 
Bureau President Wayne Herriman. Wallace bested Herriman by about four points yesterday but failed to get over the 50 percent threshold.
Republicans still have to choose their nominee but either Democrat will have a difficult time in the general election in a district that John McCain won with 66 percent of the vote in 2008.
Plumbing contractor Markwayne Mullin finished first with 43 percent but faces state Rep. George Faught (23 percent) in the August 28 runoff. Four other candidates split the remainder of the vote.
Even if Wallace makes it through the runoff he will have very little time to regroup and raise enough money for the general election to carve out his own independent image from the national party and the President. Republicans are favored to take over the seat.
